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Thursday, November 30, 2006
Debra J. Saunders :: Townhall.com Columnist
Iraq study group: The usual suspects
by Debra J. Saunders
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There's a great anecdote about Abraham Lincoln. During the Civil War, a delegation touting itself as "the weighty men of Delaware" visited Lincoln at the White House. Lincoln's response, as noted at anecdotage.com: "Did it ever occur to you gentlemen that there was a danger of your little state tipping up in your absence?"

Which brings to my mind the Iraq Study Group. Co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker, a Republican, and former House International Relations Committee Chair Lee Hamilton, a Democrat, the ISG calls itself "a bipartisan group of senior individuals who have had distinguished careers in public service."

To go by the hype, you would think that this august body will come up with a daring roadmap for U.S. policy in Iraq. Yet experience suggests that the study group, which consists of the same swells who always fill bipartisan panels, will present a set of mealy-mouthed recommendations, more weighty in the authors' minds than in reality.

Consider the bipartisan 9-11 commission, on which Hamilton also served.

While the panel did a fine job of investigating institutional flaws that hindered intelligence before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, one certainly could argue that the bipartisan makeup encouraged the group to paper over what now can be seen as mistakes made by both the Clinton and Bush administrations.

Worse, because the 9-11 commission chose to pass its 41 recommendations unanimously -- a goal shared by the ISG -- the recommendations were bureaucratic, somewhat impractical and often gratuitous. For example, the panel refused to take a stand on the Patriot Act, but instead suggested that the White House make a case for retaining surveillance powers, followed by a "full and informed debate."

File that one under: Meaningless.

And in sub-category: Easy to ignore.

For all the presumed weightiness, the recommendations were like pre-chewed food. After all, Congress is supposed to water down proposals as a tribute to consensus. Why should a panel dilute them beforehand? Continued...

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You only need a "study group"
...when the problem is complex, or you want to waste time and money rather than deal with the problem.

We need to consolidate our U.S. forces in Iraq in an area we can secure. We then appoint a governor-general to whom the Iraqi gov't will answer. We then disarm Iraq by force. NOBODY gets to have a gun (unless he's a U.S. soldier) or he dies on the spot. If we face resistance, we deal with it via air and artillary power. A handful of Iraqis ambush our troops, we flatten the neighborhood, buldoze the rubble, and let the survivors live in the street. Once we have obedience, then we can worry about democracy.
The only rational purpose for the invasion of Iraq is the pacification of the middle east. Pacifying it would split the middle-east, and provide us a central springboard for further operations. *Giving* them democracy is just born-again hooey.

Inconvenient Truths
The first President Bush declined to extend Operation Desert Storm beyond the liberation of Kuwait to regime change in Baghdad. Shortly after the war, Dick Cheney (then Bush's secretary of defense), pointed out why arguments for "going to Baghdad" had been "fallacious."

"Once you've got Baghdad, it's not clear what you do with it," he told the New York Times. "It's not clear what kind of government you would put in place of the one that's currently there now. Is it going to be a Shia regime, a Sunni regime or a Kurdish regime? Or one that tilts toward the Baathists, or one that tilts toward the Islamic fundamentalists? How much credibility is that government going to have if it's set up by the United States military when it's there? How long does the United States military have to stay to protect the people that sign on for that government, and what happens to it once we leave?"

Thoughtful questions then -- and now.

Of course, whenever propaganda trumps pragmatism such questions invite the tag of "unpatriotic." And loyal foot soldiers like Dick Cheney aren't paid to consider what's best for the nation but simply to parrot the party line. He did it after Desert Storm, and he's doing it now.

The breakup of the former Soviet Union unleashed ancient tribal and ethnic passions that only a repressive dictatorship could control. Same scenario in the former Yugoslavia, after the death of Tito. So it's not as if Cheney's original questions were suddenly irrelevant.

The difference 10 years later? After 9/11, we had to do ~something~. So making Saddam Hussein the scapegoat would be a quick and inexpensive fix, right?

As for our "responsibility to the people of Iraq", does it exempt those people from taking any responsibility for themselves? Or is it the Bush administration's intent to make that nation totally dependent on us? Excellent strategy! Could be just the permanent foothold we need in the quagmire of the Middle East!

Might it be that an invasion of Iraq that didn't take into account the questions Cheney posed after Desert Storm be a (drumroll, please) ... "mistake"?

Or perhaps, when your MO looks like "Gee, this isn't working. Let's do more of it!", mistakes don't matter?

The solution: allow the Iraqis to align themselves into a loose-knit federation of independent "states" and a relatively weak central government. Yes, there will be ethnic dislocation (although that's happening already). And yes, a formula for sharing the oil revenue would have to be devised.

But such a model already exists. It was along those exact lines that, more than 200 years ago, a new nation was born ... the United States of America.
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