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Wednesday, September 13, 2006
David Strom :: Townhall.com Columnist
Whatever happened to the greed?
by David Strom
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Just a few months ago, you couldn’t open a newspaper or turn on the television without being bombarded with angry denouncements of the greed of oil company executives.

Gasoline prices have risen to $3 a gallon and more, from a low of just above $2 last November. Consumers were feeling the pinch in their pocketbooks, and politicians were smelling blood in the water and a potent political issue for this fall’s campaign.

Democrats jumped on the issue, proposing everything from new taxes on oil company profits to a Manhattan-project style initiative to reduce the nation’s dependence on oil. Not to be outdone, Republicans jumped on the alternative fuel bandwagon, and President Bush himself declared America “addicted to oil.”

Politicians on both sides of the aisle took aim at the oil companies themselves: Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer talked of “shared sacrifices in tough times versus Oil Company greed,” and Republican Senator Trent Lott proposed voluntary—or even mandatory—profit controls on oil companies.

The thread that held together all this nonsense was based on a couple of obvious falsehoods: first, that our use of or dependence upon oil in this economy is something unnatural or created, an “addiction” that needs to be treated by massive government intervention in the economics of energy; and second, that the run-up in the price of oil was driven by the avarice of oil company executives who discovered that addiction and exploited it to their benefit.

Both of those assumptions are silly, and based upon a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics.

Consider the first misunderstanding, that America is “addicted” to oil. It is as correct to say that America is addicted to oil as it is to say that America is addicted to corn and soybeans. Oil happens to be, on balance, an extremely economical and flexible way to generate and transport energy. It is, or at least has been, relatively cheap to use compared to other energy sources, and it is pretty much unsurpassed as a motor fuel.

In other words, Americans use so much oil simply because it is relatively cheap, abundant, and convenient to use. Pretty much the same could be said of our use of corn and soybeans. We grow so much and use so much of them because they serve our purposes well and economically.

Now of course, as the price of these commodities rise, for whatever reason, our tendency to use them changes. If oil becomes less cheap and abundant, or less convenient to use, our behavior changes. People begin to travel less, buy more efficient cars, and energy efficiency rises as a concern for more Americans. Over time, our consumption of oil will level off or drop; in fact, ever since the oil price shocks of the 70’s, the relative dependence of the US economy on oil has been dropping. On average, according to the Department of Energy, Americans are using less and less energy to produce a dollar of GDP over time.

Now consider the second misunderstanding, that oil prices rose so quickly due to the greed of oil companies bent on exploiting “oil-addicted” Americans. This assertion is even sillier than the first. While I have no doubt that oil company executives have their share of greed and avarice in their hearts, I can’t for the life of me explain why these executives were less greedy last November when gas prices averaged $2.10 than they were September 5th, when they topped out at $3.03, or today, when gas is back down to about $2.60 a gallon or less. I just bought some gas at $2.27 a gallon at my local station.

If greed were the driving force behind gas prices, why the huge swings in price? Are oil company executives less driven by greed today than 2 weeks ago?

The simple fact is, gas prices, just like the price of corn, soybeans, or any other commodity item are driven largely by supply and demand on a worldwide scale. These prices are subject to huge swings depending upon many things, including of course the worries investors have over supply shocks due to political conditions such as the Iraq war, Iranian nuclear ambitions, the whims of Venezuela’s dictator Hugo Chavez, and any number of other considerations.

Nobody expects the average politician to be a profile of courage, calmly explaining to irate citizens why price swings are a normal and expected occurrence in a volatile marketplace. But when the politicians begin proposing price controls, windfall profits taxes, huge tax breaks to ethanol producers, or even mandatory profit controls on oil companies, it's time to put on the brakes.

Time and again, experience has shown us that the best response from government is to let the market work. The oil price shocks of the 70’s didn’t give us gas lines, government supply and price controls did. Market conditions and geology didn’t reduce oil drilling in the US, the Carter-era windfall profits taxes and ongoing government restrictions on oil drilling did.

In short, rather than seeing politicians as providers of solutions to our oil price woes, Americans could rightly see them as part of the problem. Almost every solution they offer would make things worse, not better. The only beneficiaries would be the politicians, who are pretending to ride in on white horses to save consumers from the dragon of oil company greed.

All it takes to see this is a little Econ 101.

David Strom is President of the Taxpayers League of Minnesota and author of “Gasbags: What the politicians and the pundits aren’t saying about the fluctuating price of gas and oil- and what you need to know !”

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About The Author

David Strom is the President of the Minnesota Free Market Institute. He hosts a weekly radio show on AM-1280 "The Patriot" in Minneapolis-St. Paul, available on podcast at Townhall.com.

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Greed or markets
I have read that market demand is rising by up to 10% per year. I know that it is prudent to hedge prices when there are potentials for supply interruptions. So the market duly responded with increased prices.
The part that doesn't compute for me no matter how lucid David Storm's article is how prices could triple in that enviornment. There is a disconnect between the price and the demand/supply story.
Let's be honest; speculators in the market are in a frenzy mode. We have all witnesses price increases for the stupid reason that there was a leak, a tiny leak for God's sake, in a pipeline in Arizona. How is a pipeline leak going to raise prices nationwide? There was no loss of supply but a slight disruption of distribution. It was just an excuse and we've seen that play out time and again.
What is the market force behind the drop in prices today? Nothing notable.... except.... and upcoming American election. I mean, show me what else is there? Iran and Iraq are becoming buddies for God's sake.
Now I've read that we have a new field discovery in Jack 2 and that a Saudi oil guy has said that reserves are actually much higher than is generally reported. What is the impact of that. That supply is untapped and not a factor yet.
However it is not part of what would have been previously unknown supply that a new knowledge of may impact prices. I don't think for a minute these things, in and of themselves are news to the market players in oil.
I just don't buy that the markets are doing their natural thing. It is not the full story.

Pretty simple
way back when, I was taught the simple laws of supply and demand. I think that maybe, just maybe, that has something to do with the price of gas. Just a crazy thought!

Greed
Whenever you hear someone spouting off about "greed," watch out! It is usually a reliable indication that someone, usually but not always a liberal (are you listening, Bill O'Reilly) is about to put his hand in your pocket.

Their implication is that you are the only one who is acting in your own best interest, and that you are wrong to do so, while they have only altruistic motivations and the good of society as their sole interest. Hogwash!

It is the fiduciary responsibility of oil company executives to their stockholders to charge a profit-maximizing price. This is difficult to determine, and the function of the market is to arrive at this price by trial and error. If one supplier charges a price higher than that equilibrium point, competitors will undercut him, reducing his volume and profit. It has proven over time that even OPEC is incapable of maintaining a market-distorting trust over time, largely explained by game theory (especially the Prisoner's Dillemma)Competing global oil companies have even less ability to manipulate price.

Mike - supply and demand are not the only factors in determining price. The global political situation, future expectations and speculation can all distort pricing in the short term. Markets are not perfect, and there are lags, but eventually the "right" price will be arrived at.

Speculation is part of the market
Speculation serves an important, if occasionally exasperating part of the market.

Speculation is a way the market deals with future risk. People bet on what supply and demand will be in the future, and place their bets accordingly. The price goes up, increasing the available supply for the future.

If the bet goes wrong, the speculators lose the bet and a bunch of money. If the bet is correct, then supply has been held back to cushion the shortage caused by supply disruptions.

Overall, the futures markets play an important role in smoothing out supply and demand over time. Watching the process work can be exasperating, but the alternative is much worse.

Speculation, indeed.
Thanks, David, for elucidating the link between the commodities exchanges and the prices of commodities. Speculation is indeed a large part of the price of oil. Most consumers do not understand this - nor do those offering overly simple explanations such as "supply and demand".

Speculation serves as a needed buffer between the producer and the consumer. Because the end product - say, gasoline - is better seen as a process, guarantees need to be made to the producer that a certain price can be had in the future (hence the term "futures"). Otherwise, he will not (cannot) expend the resources to bring the product (and the myriad processes needed to produce it) to market.

An analogy: I went to college not to fulfill a hole in my ego, but because I saw that were I to do so, I was almost guaranteed more income over a long span of time. Thus, I took on debt to finance my education, wagering I could pay it off soon enough and net higher lifetime earnings than had I stayed un-degreed. Who set the cost of my education? People outside my control, similar to the speculators moving the price of oil.

A sidenote: I used to trade commodities in the late 90s, to some degree of success (though some degree of less than success as well). At the time, I recall not trading oil futures simply because the margin requirements were so high. I typically traded units of corn, soybeans, sugar and the like, as their margin requirements were typically ~$1000 - $2000. Oil rather was something like $30,000 at one point. The margin requirements are usually increased when volatility enters the market - as a form of further buffering against wild price swings. To me, this seems to introduce inertia into the market. That is, once a market has wildly increased in price, margins are increased, thus keeping only people in the market who have the wherewithall to ride out blips, thus softening the spikes and slowing everything down. This is just my take through anecdotal evidence.

Something to consider on the positive: high oil prices will, if sustained, spur new resource development. Over time, as this new oil is brought to market, prices will drop and perhaps stay depressed longer the next time.
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