The big mining companies do a terrific job of scouring the
earth for everything from alumina to zinc. But lately they've
also become equally good at involving themselves in
geopolitical skirmishes, either with their own governments or
those of other countries, or otherwise keeping their names at
the forefront of the news.
As you probably can guess, I'm referring primarily to
the likes of
Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP),
BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), and
Vale (NYSE: VALE). The trio that controls the
majority of the world's iron ore supply was in especially
fine fettle during the second half of last week, when they
all managed to make headlines in one form or another.
Has Hugo Chavez moved?
Take
Vale, for instance. The company has announced a $5.6
billion spate of investments, obviously under pressure from
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. He has been
chagrinned by layoffs at Vale, and a cut in its capital
expenditures in the face of the world's economic slowdown.
Lula da Silva has maintained that Vale management has not
taken the interests of the country's steel industry
sufficiently to heart.
The investments still must pass a Vale board vote. Should
they receive that imprimatur, they'll likely increase the
production at the Vargem Grande, Conceicao Itabiritos, and
Apolo mines in the state of Minas Gerais, adding thousands of
jobs in the process.
There are still rumors circulating in Brazil that Lula da
Silva is after the hide -- and the job -- of Vale CEO Roger
Agnelli. But removing Agnelli wouldn't be a piece of cake,
even for the country's president. Indeed, Brazil's bank
Bradesco (NYSE: BBD) has a major stake in the
company, and so any sort of heavy ax wielding would likely
require the approval of that institution. For that reason,
Vale is not as firmly under the president's thumb as is, for
instance, state-run
oil company,
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR).
Where all this is going is anyone's guess, but as I've
said before, Brazil just might be taking on a tinge of
Venezuela.
Forecasts on the rise
Beyond that, Rio Tinto ended the week by upping its
iron ore production forecasts for this year. Rather than the
prior 200 million metric tons, the company now expects to
produce 210 to 215 million metric tons. The impetus for the
hike was third quarter demand, which climbed 12% year over
year and 5% from the prior quarter.
It appears that the demand improvement was spread across
most of Asia, Europe, and North America. At the same time,
the China Iron and Steel Association, which represents most
of the major Chinese steelmakers, has suggested the
establishment of a China-specific iron ore price, an idea
that Rio Tinto has criticized roundly.
Despite that, Rio's aluminum group continues to struggle,
with its production down 4% from a year ago. But that hasn't
stopped U.S.
aluminum producers
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and
Kaiser Aluminum (Nasdaq: KALU) from watching
their share prices more than double since March. Continued... |