Christophe de Margerie, CEO of
Paris-based
Total (NYSE: TOT), is talking
about peak oilwithout precisely using the term, in either
French or English. According to de Margerie, whose company
ranks third in size in Europe behind
Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) and
BP (NYSE: BP), worldwide oil supplies may
fall short of demand as early as 2014.
That's actually a year later than the International Energy
Agency's April prediction that 2013 may be the year in which
demand exceeds supply. According to de Margerie, the
market is anticipating that shortfall, rather than
allowing current supply demand dynamics to set prices. Were
the latter to be the case, he believes that crude would be
trading below $60 a barrel. Both Total and the IEA are
concerned about the amount of oil and gas investment that has
been deferred as crude prices have fallen from last year's
highs.
In Total's case, second-quarter production was the lowest
in nine years, as OPEC cuts and the worldwide recession took
their toll. For that reason, the company is taking a number
of steps to deal with what it believes lies in its
future.
For instance, it's discussing an expansion of its
relationship with
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) in Brazil, where it
believes its technological expertise can benefit the
state-controlled oil company'sefforts to produce oil from
big discoveries that lie more than 20,000 feet beneath water,
sand, rock, and shifting salt. Those conditions will make
production difficult and likely drive it back several
years.
And aside from the potential of Brazil, Total is already a
partner of Petrobras in parts Nigeria, Angola, and Bolivia.
At the same time, Total has teamed up with Russia's
Gazprom
and Norway's
StatoilHydro (NYSE: STO) to develop the
gas-rich Shtokman field located in the Barents Sea.
On the downstream side, the company, which is Europe's
largest refiner, may trim some assets. Refinery sales have
been slow, but Total pointed to the 45%
stake in its Vlissingen refinerysold to
Lukoil , after exercising preemptive rights
over shares offered to
Valero (NYSE: VLO) by former stakeholder
Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW). On the other side
of the coin and counter to Europe's oversupply of refining
capacity, Total is working on a 400,000-barrels-a-day
refinery in Saudi Arabia and looking to expand its presence
in China with a possible stake in a second refinery
there.
While Total still has some upstream issues to settle,
there's enough going on in enough places to make the company
well
worth your Foolish efforts.
More Foolishness about energy:
5-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: StatoilHydro
Dow Chemical Races Back
There's a Shell in Russia's Bed Again
This article was originally published as
Total's Preparing for the Coming Oil Shortageon
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