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Friday, June 26, 2009
David Harsanyi :: Townhall.com Columnist
How To Lie With Statistics -- Again
by David Harsanyi
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Did you know that about 300 million Americans went without food, water and shelter at some point last year?

I am a survivor.

If you were blessed with the prodigiously creative and cunning mind of a politician, that kind of statistic -- meaningless but technically true -- could be put to good use.

In the entertaining 1954 classic "How To Lie With Statistics," Darrell Huff writes, "Misinforming people by the use of statistical material might be called statistical manipulation … (or) statisticulation."

One of the most persistent examples of modern-day statisticulation is the sufficiently true claim that 46 million (it becomes 50 million when senators really get keyed up) Americans don't have health insurance.

Set loose on the public's compassion, this number is a powerful tool in the hands of eloquent orators, such as President Barack Obama, when they're peddling government-run health care reform. And no matter how often the figure is debunked, no matter how many studies point to its inexact nature, it's just too politically inviting not to embrace.

Wherever we stand on health care policy, surely we can admit that it's just as important to understand why Americans are uninsured as it is to get a handle on how many Americans are uninsured.

It is true that the 46 million figure is based on unreliable Census Bureau data. But even the less unreliable Congressional Budget Office puts the number at about 31 million. And even that number, former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin claims, is an "incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the uninsured population."

For one reason, the uninsured figure counts all Americans (and illegal immigrants) who have been uninsured for any amount of time during a year, even if they happen to be between jobs or changing insurance plans or on family visits to Guatemala.

According to the CBO, 45 percent of the uninsured are uninsured for four months or less, which seems like a pretty positive number to me.

Then, another portion of uninsured Americans already qualify for existing government health insurance programs -- and government already controls 46 percent of spending on health care -- for which they have not signed up.

The CBO estimates that as many as 15 percent of the chronically uninsured are already eligible for help. The Urban Institute (hardly an advocate of free market fundamentalism) found that 25 percent of the uninsured qualify for some program.

Surely, most citizens would concur that health care is too expensive (though most citizens likely would concur that everything is too expensive) and something should be done. So when President Obama tells us that 46 million Americans are uninsured, he is implying that 46 million people can't afford health insurance. That, too, is absurd.

In a study for the National Bureau of Economic Research called "Is Health Insurance Affordable for the Uninsured?," Stanford economists say, "Based on a plausible range of definitions and assumptions … health insurance is affordable for between one quarter and three quarters of adults who are not insured."

Turns out that 8.4 million uninsured Americans are making $50,000 to $74,999, and 9.1 million more are making more than $75,000. Health insurance is just incompatible with their lifestyles, I guess.

There are obviously inconveniences -- children and mortgages, for instance -- that quickly can make $50,000 seem like a pittance. Then again, 27 percent of all adults in their 20s (many, I presume, without offspring) choose not to have health insurance. Many of them surely have the means to purchase insurance but after meticulously considering the trade-offs (imbibing or insuring?) say no thanks.

These facts do not undermine the argument for nationalized health care. (History and common sense do that already.) They do, however, point out that many statistics, to quote Huff again, get by "only because the magic of numbers brings about a suspension of common sense."

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About The Author
Not just about the uninsured
The insurance companies charge ridiculous rates and try to deny coverage for certain people.


How like a Liberal:
The SYSTEM is BROKEN...

We HAVE to re-create the broken system from the ground up...

It may cost 500 TRILLION dollars over 3 years, but IF IT SAVES JUST ONE LIFE...

Haven't we heard all this crap before? It wasn't worth squat then, it's not worth squat now.

i

Health insurance is a joke

and part of what costs us so much for medical treatment.

Imagine if we had the same kind of car insurance that we do for medical. Everything would be covered, from major warranty issues to every drop of oil and windshield washer fluid. You could just take your car to the shop and get the oil changed, minor repairs done, and just make a copay.

Troubkle is, that 25 dollar oil change would be 100 dollars or more, because of the increased staff necessary to handle the increased paperwork, delayed payment to the provider, and so on. And guess how much your car insurance would cost? Currently, I pay about 500 dollars a year for insurance to replace a 25k car. I pay over 6 THOUSAND a year for medical insurance.

In order to fix health care, we need to first stop viewing insurance as a "provider" of everything from band aids to pennicillin tablets and start viewing it as a manager of risk against a catastrophic event, which it is intended to be.

tyler's assertion
Ridiculous rates? Nice vague term that "ridiculous". According to who? By what standard? Can you cite any definitive study showing that.
Insurance is a service offered for compensation by people who invest time and resources to be able to provide it. Are you suggesting we steal from them, or enslave them to provide for others?
As insurance and health care are services offered, and not a god given, unalienable right by what reason would a provider be obligated to provide for someone who would not qualify?
As I've said many times the most important fact concerning health care is "WHO OWNS IT?". The second most important fact is that it is absolutely ILLEGAL for the federal government to be involved in health care as they have been given no legal standing or authority to be involved in the issue. If the constraints of the US constitution do not apply then there is no rule of law, and all may do as they please. If one does not undersatnd this one is a fool. If one does understand this and plows ahead anyway, then one is evil. EIther way that one contributes to the undermining of good in the US.

statistics
my third grade teacher used to say, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure." just about sums up the One's administation.

Health insurance need
People between the ages 6 and 46 seldom need any sort of health insurance, because they are just too healthy.

It makes no sense at all for people between the ages 21 and 46 to have insurance; pay as they go is much cheaper for them.

They are by far money ahead to stick the "health insurance premium" in a bank and pay taxes on the interest, get the insurance in their 40's, and keep the savings account to pay for catastrophic health problems.

(Ignoring the issue of pregnancy and children under 6, of course.)

insurances are businesses
insurance companies cover with low rates those that have a low likelihood of getting seriously ill.

It is like hurricane insurance - cheap in Colorado - expensive in Florida
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