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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Cliff May :: Townhall.com Columnist
War and Peace: Petroleum Gives Putin the Power to Wage the Former and Set Terms for the Latter
by Cliff May
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Perhaps money can’t buy love, but it can certainly purchase power. So as oil prices have been rising, the major oil-producing nations have been gaining clout.

Petroleum is no ordinary source of wealth. It is - or has become - a strategic resource: People in the West can no longer do without it. A sudden restriction in the supply would produce wrenching changes in our way of life. Lacking fuel, our military would cease to function. In the midst of a global conflict against militant Islamist regimes and movements, that’s a problem.

Russia holds the world’s largest natural-gas reserves and the eighth-largest oil reserves — energy on which Western Europe has come to depend. Russian strongman Vladimir Putin appears to have thought long and hard about how to exploit these facts.

In the wake of Russia’s aggression against neighboring Georgia, Garry Kasparov — one of the few Russian opposition leaders not yet eliminated, incarcerated, or intimidated — asks: “Can such a belligerent state be trusted as the guarantor of Europe’s energy supply?” The question answers itself, but Europe’s politicians and bureaucrats are taking no steps that could lead toward energy security.

Meanwhile, it is clear that extending and solidifying Russia’s grip over Europe’s energy supplies is among Putin’s goals. Russian domination of Georgia will mean control over the pipeline running from Baku in Azerbaijan, to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. That will give Russia, along with Islamist Iran, a virtual monopoly over the substantial supply of oil and gas originating in the Caspian Sea region.

President Bush and other Western leaders have been calling Russia’s assault on Georgia a mistake. Putin, who made his bones in the KGB, no doubt sees it as a calculated risk. What’s the worst that can happen to him?

The UN will do nothing because the UN is now manipulated, routinely, by its most unsavory members. NATO is not, at present, a serious military alliance, as its failure in Afghanistan — where it was supposed to take the lead — demonstrates. (Al-Qaeda and its local proxy, the Taliban, will be beaten in Afghanistan only if the U.S. military figures out how to do the job, as the U.S. military figured out — learning from mistakes — how to fight al-Qaeda and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.)

And there is no chance that any U.S. leader will “go it alone” militarily in the Caucusus when so many Americans could not find the Caucusus on a map.

So what cards do the U.S. and its allies have to play? Short term, there is diplomatic hardball which would include threatening Russia with expulsion from the G8 (which was meant to be a club for industrialized democracies only), depriving Russia of any chance to host the next Olympics, and blackballing Russian membership in the World Trade Organization.

Longer term, addressing the West’s strategic vulnerability is imperative. Former CIA director Jim Woolsey points out that salt was, for centuries, a strategic resource. It was necessary for the preservation of food. Without it, soldiers could not travel and villagers risked starvation. Wars were fought over salt. As recently as the Civil War, Union and Confederate troops battled over saltworks in the South.

But technology — the advent of refrigeration — turned salt from a strategic resource into just another condiment. Similarly, technology can free the U.S. and the West from the tyranny of dependence on hostile regimes. We can innovate our way out of this crisis.

We don’t need a new Manhattan Project — we just need to open the energy marketplace, to spur more vibrant competition. Lawmakers can accomplish that by leveling the playing field between oil and alternative fuels, and by encouraging the development of technologies that will squeeze energy more efficiently and cleanly from coal (which the U.S. has in abundance) and from crops grown for this purpose. (And no, that doesn’t create hunger — not when American and European farmers are being paid to keep millions of acres of cropland fallow.)

It will help, too, to accelerate research on and development of cars that can run long distances on electricity — which can be derived from nuclear power facilities, wind farms, solar energy collectors, and many other sources.

Or we can sit back and watch as oil flows to us, while wealth and power flow to the despots ruling Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. We’ll burn the oil, they’ll amass the power. Our grandchildren will wonder why we were so feckless in the face of such a dire threat to our security and independence. But by then it may be too dangerous to ask such questions aloud.

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About The Author

Clifford D. May is the President of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

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So long as it isn't W.
So where are all the moonbats now, bleating their "No blood for oil" mantra about Putin?

Take a good look you libtards. This is what naked aggression for the sake of imperialistic gains really looks like.

Perhaps I'm wrong on this
But I believe there are elements of energy/natural resources and/or religion in the cause of nearly every war.

Too bad congress has let this unbridled, unanswered, inflated increase in wealth for self-centered countries. Perhaps some may believe the USA is self-centered, but who does the world call when there is a problem or calamity and puts citizen tax money to help with health problems to the extent we do? NOBODY.

There was "no chance" we'd go to war
in Iraq when so few americans could find it on a map.

just keep giving lectures on democracy.
In between all his sanctimonious lectures on democracy, I thought Bush had scolded the Russians recently that 19th century-style imperialism and spheres of influence were dead.

Guess Putin didn't get the word.

We have real politik(reality), versus mindless blather about democracy.

I wonder who came out on top?

Good article.

This oil and natural gas resource was always available to Putin, and as the U.S. kept pushing NATO right up to his doorstep, placing military installations on his border, he decided to let us and the Europeans know he had some cards to play here.

Having said that, I have little doubt but that Saakhashvili initiated this thing, but Putin was lying in wait, reeady to pounce once Saakhashvili acted.

So now some neocons are pitching hissy fits that the Age of Aqarius where democracy was to transform the world has ignominiously crashed into the real politik concrete wall of nation-state self interest and spheres of influence.

Some argue Putin was never going to be a partner with us.

Maybe, and maybe not.

Who knows?

But what is known is we have foreclosed any possibility he might have been a partner by deputizing former soviet states with NATO membership, placing military installations on his border, and otherwise marginalizing a former great power, this Russian bear.

Well, the Russian bear is now beginning to growl.

You neglected to mention
using our own abundant supply of oil and natural gas, to go with the other energy sources that will take years to perfect.

OiL Riches For Others Only
Ever notice how you can ask the most obvious question and choosing not to hear it, NO ONE
will admit hearing it?

I read and hear dozens of times daily about how we make rich people like Putins Russia, the Saudies and Iran by buying their oil. Hey, does selling oil make lots omoney for the seller?
Do you see where I am going?

Why not sell our natural energy resources like they do and get richer like they do? We borrow 2 Billion a day instead of selling 2 Billion a day and applying the money to the National Debt,
healthcare, Social Security, etc. Is that too complicated?

Wikipedia info about Georgean revolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Revolution
The "Revolution of Roses" (often translated into English as the Rose Revolution was a bloodless revolution in the country of Georgia in 2003 that displaced President Eduard Shevardnadze.
A significant source of funding for the Rose Revolution was the network of foundations and NGOs associated with American billionaire financier George Soros. The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies reports the case of a former Georgian parliamentarian who alleges that in the three months prior to the Rose Revolution, "Soros spent $42 million ramping-up for the overthrow of Shevardnadze." Speaking in Tblisi in June of 2005, Soros said, "I'm very pleased and proud of the work of the foundation in preparing Georgian society for what became a Rose Revolution, but the role of the foundation and my personal has been greatly exaggerated."

Wikipedia 2-nd info: Georgean cabinet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temur_Iakobashvili
Temur Iakobashvili (also transliterated as Temuri Yakobashvili) (born 1967) is a Georgian political scientist, diplomat and politician serving as State Minister for Reintegration since January 31, 2008.
Iakobashvili was born into a Georgian Jewish family in Tbilisi. He graduated from the Department of Physics at Tbilisi State University in 1984. He further attended Diplomatic Course at the universities of Oxford and Birmingham in the United Kingdom (1998), obtained the Yale University scholarship for the World Leaders’ Program (2002), and took international security courses at the John F. Kennedy School of Government in the United States (2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Kezerashvili
Davit Kezerashvili (born September 22, 1978, i.e. as of now he is 29 years old) is the Georgian Minister of Defence. Kezerashvili was born in Tbilisi. He studied in Russia and Israel before studying law and international relations at Tbilisi State University.
Kezerashvili is a former Israeli and is fluent in Hebrew. After working in the Justice Ministry he became an assistant to Mikhail Saakashvili. Saakashvili helped him become chief of the Tbilisi City Council. On November 11, 2006 he was appointed as Georgian Defense Minister, replacing Irakli Okruashvili. Shalva Natelashvili of the Georgian Labour Party criticized Kezerashvili's appointment, arguing that he "has never served in the army... doesn't even have the title of sergeant and has no clue about the armed forces."

Sailer: does NATO needs young minister ?
Steve Sailer (http://isteve.com ) poses the question, which I reproduce here: should USA really be in a hurry to pull such a young defense minister (29 years old) into NATO ?

Few Options
Power politics, spheres of influence, and Russian self interest trumped Bush and NATO's attempt to secure the pipeline by bringing Georgia into NATO. Putin knew very well that no one was going to attack his forces over Georgia, given it's on his borders, involves his troops, and those troops are backed by more than enough nuclear warheads and ICBM's. Further, saying that Europe should be energy independent ignores the fact that Europeons are far more energy independent than the US, but still must have it. They use far more nuclear power and coal for electricity, drive smaller and more efficient automobiles fewer miles per person, have far more efficient public transportation systems and trains, and are far ahead in geothermal power. Europe can no more disconnect from Russian natural gas, than we can from oil.

Rather than define the war on terror as a war to become independent of unreliable sources of energy, the US chose to define it not only as a war against Al Queida, but a war in Iraq to establish democracies. We fund those who we believe to be our enemies, while claiming that we can win militarily what we make no attempt to win economically. Welcome to the real world.


interesting
The tone of this article is May's usual chicken little act. It isn't clear that May has any other style to right in other than the "America is so fragile we need to be afraid of everyone" style. And this one is pretty silly. Russia gets money from selling gas and oil. It could choose not to sell gas and oil, but the result of this would be that it would cease to be rich. It could decide to only sell its oil and gas to some countries and not others, but that would decrease its profits and keep the total gas and oil on the market constant.

And, as I thought was well known, we keep reserves of oil and gas to protect against such shocks, so such moves would not actually limit the short term military moves we could make.

But after all of the silly bluster, May comes forth with suggestions that would be reasonable even without the bluster, namely a greater focus on developing new sources of energy and better utilizing the energy we have.

If the chicken little act is needed to convince conservatives to support sensible energy measures, then I am all for it.

for Lon
I guess you weren't born yet in 1973, when OPEC imposed a flat embargo on oil shipments to the U.S. in retaliation for the U.S. backing Israel in the October 1973 Middle East war. Which plunged the U.S. into an energy crisis; and millions of Americans were freezing in the dark. That was before your time, eh?

You can argue that it wasn't in OPEC's economic interest to stop selling oil to us because "they would cease to be rich." But at the time, those Arab regimes had a more important goal in mind: Destroy Israel by blackmailing the U.S. into abandoning support for Israel.

As it was, the result was to cause the world price of oil to soar. Any short-term loss of revenue to OPEC was quickly made up by huge profits from the sale of the now more expensive oil. Because the demand for oil is inelastic--a small change in supply correlates to a big change in price.

Ideology often trumps economics, something you liberals and leftists just don't get. Whether it's "Lebensraum," "Greater Russia," "Kill the Jews," or "Death to America," such ideological passions often take precedence over economic self-interest.

That is why economic self-interest has never prevented wars. If anything, it's caused them.


SteveL
You are right I am not old enough to remember when the Arab countries bested us and destroyed Israel. Oddly my sister just returned from Israel and did not mention that she couldn't go there because it had been destroyed.

It appears that we Liberals have lost fewer wars historically than you conservatives. Maybe that is why you have the chicken little approach to history.

1973 is not before my time, but somehow I missed the apocolypse that we went under.

And OPEC lost enough money out of that debacle that it was never able to act in that unified a fashion again.

Kind of a shame that we did not take that one example as reason enough to put the effort into developing alternative fuels. But if you are old enough to remember Israel being destroyed in 1973 you are presumably old enough to remember that conservatives mocked any attempts along those lines in the years that followed.

What does that say about conservatives?

Some Ponderous Questions
Has anyone heard when the Russians are going to send in food, medicine and other supplies to Georgia and when it's going to start a massive rebuilding program for the defeated country?

Oh, and when will Russian military lawyers start filing briefs against Moscow and charging Putin with war crimes?

Has the Hague begun to prepare for war crimes tribunals for Russian generals and Putin?

Has the UN condemned Russia?

How many Europeans have hit the streets in protest of the Russian invasion of Georgia?

How many American cities have been shut down by Leftist protesters, demanding that Russian troops go home?




Morons
Even Cliff May, an author whose work I admire, just doesn't seem to get it when it comes to taking immediate action to strip autocratic and dictatorial oil producing nations of their strangle hold on oil. It is stupidly simple! Drill Here! Drill Now!

We can both meet most of our domestic demand as well as become a major player as an oil exporter. All we have to do is act. Our natural gas reserves alone could seriously blunt any threat from Russia to cut off that resource to the West.

We have a clear and present opportunity to take the most significant, non-military action, to end the blackmail from tyrannical regimes and we bicker about Caribou and Polar Bears.

The lunacy of politicians, socialists and brain-dead environmentalists is suffocating. Euthanasia is too humane for their pestilence.

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