Far too many of the gigantic companies that failed in our
recent economic meltdown shared the same problem. They lost
sight of their core businesses and instead focused way too
much on complicated financial engineering. In many cases,
they were lured on by the siren song of "significant extra
profits with very little apparent risk" from derivatives and
excess leverage.
As should be apparent from the sheer number of huge
businesses that failed as the credit market dried up, that
was a very tempting siren song, indeed. What made the siren
song so alluring was that it played to large companies' key
strengths: scale and diversification.
From billions to pennies
You see, as a company gets big, it can start taking
advantage of its size. It gets better pricing on its raw
materials thanks to its scale and better terms on its loans
thanks to its large cash generating abilities. As its
offerings grow over time, the chances are that its products
will not all follow identical revenue cycles, and that
diversification will make its operations seem less risky.
That is wonderful for the company and its investors, up to
a point. And that point is when the company starts thinking
of ways to leverage its newly found muscle through fancy
financial engineering. When that happens, the company opens
itself up to the kind of excessive leverage that brought down
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM),
Lehman Brothers , and
Bear Stearns .
After all, it's really only a small step from financial
engineering to the kinds of esoteric spreadsheet-based models
that "can't possibly fail outside of a black swan event."
Look what happened to
General Electric (NYSE: GE). What was once
the world's largest company -- known for its industrial
products from light bulbs to locomotives and turbines -- was
nearly taken down by its finance arm's aggressive
lending.
The advantages of staying nimble
A critical factor in the meltdown was excessive debt,
or "leverage" as the financial engineers like to call it.
When investments work out in favor of a company, that debt
magnifies the impact of the returns the company's
stockholders see. Leverage looks brilliant when things are
going well, but it's a knife that cuts both ways. When an
investment turns against a heavily leveraged institution,
even a small and otherwise manageable loss can wipe out
equity almost instantly.
If a company didn't leverage itself to the hilt, however,
it missed out on the magnification effects from the bubble --
and its burst. While the upside may not have appeared nearly
as sweet, the downside became
survivable. In addition, with a clean balance sheet
that helped mute the impact of the crash, that company is now
nimble enough to take advantage of the gaping holes left by
its failing, overleveraged competition.
How did some avoid that siren song?
Part of what made the initial leverage so tempting to
companies was the relentless drive for growth that comes from
being publicly traded and subject to Wall Street's pressures.
Wall Street can be a
verydifficult pressure to ignore, because large
institutional shareholders can force changes to a company's
board and management team.
But if a company has a significant amount of insider
ownership, that pressure is easier to resist. High insider
ownership reduces the influence of outsiders pushing for
greater leverage to juice returns. In addition, high insider
ownership means the management team has a lot of its own skin
in the game. As a result, as the company succeeds or fails,
they personallysucceed or fail.
Combine the two -- limited debt and high insider ownership
-- and you have a recipe for a successful counterattack on
Wall Street's pressure to "lever up."
Five companies set to dominate
Now that the damage has been done, the surviving
companies have the opportunity to lick their wounds and
recover -- and fill the gaps in the market left by their
failed compatriots. And the companies in the best position to
fill those gaps are those who survived strongest and most
intact. You know, the ones with limited debt and significant
insider ownership, like these:
Company
Total Debt
(in Millions)
Net Income
(in Millions)
Insider
Ownership
Market
Capitalization
(in Millions)
Morningstar (Nasdaq: MORN)
$0
$87
57%
$2,481
National Instruments (Nasdaq:
NATI)
$0
$47
26%
$2,148
Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI)
$0 Continued... |