In his famous 1984 speech "The Superinvestors of Graham
and Doddsville," Warren Buffett laid out the key factors that
enabled him and others like him to trounce the market over
the course of decades. Even though he very publicly shared
the secrets of his success, Buffett and his ilk remain
market-walloping investors to this day. That flies in the
face of the theory that once information about investing
becomes public, it gets priced into the market, and no longer
provides anyone an advantage.
More importantly for you, it also suggests that Buffett's
and the other superinvestors' strategy has tremendous staying
power. So even today, if you follow in their footsteps, you
have a chance of becoming the
nextsuperinvestor. Yet even if you're
notdestined for international financial fame, the
principles they espouse will still serve you extremely well
as you invest your own cash.
How do they do it?
As Buffett pointed out in that speech, the overarching
theme that ties the superinvestors together is their
relentless focus on two simple factors: price and value. They
all aim to buy whenever the market charges less for a stock
than what the company behind that stock is truly worth.
When it comes right down to it, the secret to Buffett's
and the other superinvestors' tremendous success is hardly a
secret at all. They're simply the bargain hunters on Wall
Street. As long as stock market activity is dominated by
traders, with their short-term focus on and obsession with
price movements, those value investors will have the
opportunity to profit handsomely.
The tough part
If it were really just that easy to trounce the market
by value investing, everyone would be doing it, and the
superinvestors would lose their advantage. The reason value
investors consistently maintain their edge over the market is
that it's tough to go against popular sentiment. As a stock
skyrockets upwards, it's tempting to rush in to buy so you
don't miss out. It's also easy to think that a stock that's
dropping like a stone is on its way toward zero.
When it's your money on the line, sentiment like that is
verytempting to follow. Ultimately, that's dangerous
to your financial well-being. But in the heat of the moment,
when it's your cash at risk, it's just way easier to follow
the herd.
At the end of the day, you simply cannot do what everybody
else is doing and wind up ahead of the market. Indeed, if you
want to buy low and sell high, you have to be willing to go
against popular sentiment -- to buy when everyone else is
selling, and sell when everyone else is buying.
The way to be consistently successful
Of course, there are times when the herd is right. It
was pretty clear that
General Motors was driving toward oblivion
years before its bankruptcy filing. That's why it's so
important to pay attention to what the company behind the
stock is really worth, not just where it's trading. To be
successful at value investing, you need both elements to be
favorable: the stock's price and the company's true
value.
It's not always simple to get a handle on that true value.
There are two easy questions I always ask, though, to see
whether there may be some real value hiding just below the
surface:
How well does the company generate cash from its
operations? If those operations consistently throw
off more real cash than the company claims as accounting
earnings, it's generally a sign the company has a solid
underlying business.
Does the company have cash lying around? If
a company has more cash than debt, its "enterprise value"
(market cap minus cash plus debt) will be below its market
capitalization. In essence, a low enterprise value means an
investor could buy all the company's stock, then turn
around and use that cash to help reduce the out-of-pocket
costs of acquiring the company. It also means that the
business itself has more financial flexibility to pounce on
opportunities it uncovers.
From an individual investor's perspective, the big
advantage of a low enterprise value is that you can buy your
stake in the business, and get its flexibility for a lower
price than a quick glance at its P/E ratio would initially
lead you to believe.
If:
and
You trust the company's management to deploy its cash
stash prudently,
and
The company's stock is trading at reasonable
levels
...Then there just might be a real value there, waiting
for you to buy. Take a look, for instance, at how these
companies stack up:
Company
Cash From Operations
(in Millions)
Net Income
(in Millions)
Enterprise Value
(in Millions)
Market Capitalization
(in Millions)
P/E Ratio
Enterprise Value to Earnings Ratio
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
$19,037
$14,569
$185,963
$210,114
14.4
12.8
Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN)
$5,325
$4,478
$60,191
$60,685
13.6
13.4
Stryker (NYSE: SYK)
$1,200
$1,124
$13,402
$15,810
14.1
11.9
Western Digital (NYSE: WDC)
$1,305
$470
$5,722
$7,035 Continued... |