You can always find
examplesto prove the effectiveness of buy-and-hold
investing . But unless you know exactly what you're doing,
it's challenging to confidently construct a portfolio of
long-term winning stocks. For those who prefer to steer clear
of stock picking,
exchange-traded funds(ETFs) provide the diversification
benefits of index funds, with some of the convenience that
comes from trading on stock exchanges.
Over the years, ETFs have become increasingly
sophisticated. A "plain vanilla" ETF like the
SPDR Trust tracks the market-cap-weighted
S&P 500 index passively. But countless other ETF
strategies have also become popular, from sector-specific
ETFs to index ETFs that assign
equal weightingsto each component. Some of those methods
have been successful, while others have been disastrous for
investors.
It's not always the thought that counts
One such disasteris the dividend-weighted ETF. In theory,
emphasizing dividend-paying companies seemed perfectly sound.
Yet during the bear market, dividend stocks were among the
worst-hit victims, especially those in the traditionally
high-yielding financial sector. Moreover, because some
dividend-weighted ETFs only made changes to their holdings
once per year, they often held stocks long after their
dividends had been cut.
Weighting component stocks by dividend isn't the only way
to invest, however. Equal-weight S&P ETFs have beaten
their traditional market-cap-weighted S&P funds in recent
years, helping to boost their popularity.
Is revenue better than dividends?
Another strategy that has had good success is to weight
stocks by their total revenue. Unlike dividend-weighted
strategies, in which some index components will be entirely
left out if they don't pay dividends, a revenue-weighted ETF
will always own at least a small portion of every stock of
the index.
Revenue-weighted ETFs give companies with the highest
revenue the most representation in the fund, making current
stock price a lot less important than it is in a traditional
market-cap-weighted index. In other words, a revenue-weighted
fund determines a company's importance based on its ability
to generate sales, rather than its current stock price and
number of shares outstanding.
One fund company, RevenueShares, has specialized in ETFs
using revenue-weighted strategies. The company has had great
success with its mid-cap and small-cap funds, which have
beaten their market-cap-weighted SPDR ETF peers by two and 10
percentage points, respectively, since they began trading
early in 2008. In the large-cap space, though, the
RevenueShares ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by about
three percentage points.
One reason for the disparity may be that with large-caps,
revenues track market capitalizations fairly closely.
Although the weighting schemes are far from identical, you'll
notice that several companies appear in the top 10 using both
methods:
S&P 500 Constituent
Revenues (Millions)
Rev Rank
Cap Rank
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)
  403,447
1
3
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
  346,875
2
1
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
  184,125
3
13
General Electric (NYSE: GE)
  170,940
4
8
ConocoPhillips
  166,891
5
27
AT&T (NYSE: T)
  123,723
6
9
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) Continued... |