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Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Chris Jones :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Bell Tolls for the Housing Crisis
by Chris Jones
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Hal-le-lu-jah!
Hal-le-lu-jah!
Housing mar-ket …
May be stable now …
Let's all buy lux'ry homes!

I can just hear housing optimists singing this rendition of Handel's "Messiah" after Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) CEO Bob Toll's remarks in recent weeks. Luxury homebuyers are purportedly easing back into the market. With more new deposits, fewer cancellations, and cutbacks on incentives and price reductions, is it possible we've already hit bottom? Mr. Toll certainly thinks we have.

Toll Brothers' fiscal third-quarter results weren't exactly pretty. Non-cash writedowns and big deferred tax asset valuation allowances did some damage, but the company should get some of it back in future years.

Toll Brothers lost $472.3 million, or $2.93 per share, in its third quarter, versus analyst estimates of a loss of $1.79. That compares with a loss of $29.3 million, or $0.18 per share, in the same period last year. Revenues were down 42% to $461.1 million, and home deliveries fell 36% to 792 units.

Finally
Still, the report supported Mr. Toll's preliminary reports two weeks ago of higher year-over-year order volume. The release gives a glimmer of hope for a market niche that has seen its share of suffering. If true, the allegations that home buying is on its way back could mean better results for builders like the ones mentioned below.

Company

Avg. Home Price (MRQ)

Profit Margin (TTM)

Toll Brothers 

$535,000

(12.2%)

D.R. Horton  (NYSE: DHI)

$211,000

(25.2%)

KB Home  (NYSE: KBH)

$216,000

(25.7%)

Pulte Homes  (NYSE: PHM)

$261,000

(29.6%) Continued...

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