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Friday, July 20, 2007
Charles Krauthammer :: Townhall.com Columnist
Petraeus' Bargain
by Charles Krauthammer
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WASHINGTON -- Amid the Senate's all-night pillow fight and other Iraq grandstanding, real things are happening on the ground in Iraq. They consist of more than just a surge of U.S. troop levels. Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have engaged us in a far-reaching and fundamental political shift. Call it the 20 percent solution.

Ever since the December 2005 Iraqi elections, the U.S. has been waiting for the central government in Baghdad to pass grand national accords on oil, federalism and de-Baathification to unify and pacify the country. The Maliki government has proved too sectarian, too weak and perhaps too disposed to Iranian interests to rise to the task.

The Democrats cite this incapacity as a reason to give up and get out. A tempting thought, but ultimately self-destructive to our interests. Accordingly, Petraeus and Crocker have found a Plan B: pacify the country region by region, principally by getting Sunnis to join the fight against al-Qaeda.

his has begun to happen in Anbar and Diyala. First, because al-Qaeda are foreigners. So are we, but -- reason No. 2 -- unlike them, we are not barbarous. We don't amputate fingers for smoking, decapitate with pleasure and kill Shiites for sport.

Third, al-Qaeda's objectives are not the Sunnis'. Al-Qaeda live for endless war and a reborn caliphate. Ultimately, they live to die. Iraqi Sunnis are not looking for a heavenly date with 72 virgins. They are looking for a deal, and perhaps just survival after U.S. troops are gone.

That's why so many Sunnis have accepted Petraeus' bargain -- they join our fight against al-Qaeda and we give them weaponry and military support. With that, they can rid themselves of the al-Qaeda cancer now. And later, when the Americans inevitably leave, they'll be better positioned to defend themselves against the 80 percent Shiite-Kurd majority they are beginning to realize they may have unwisely taken on.

The bargain is certainly working for us. The recent capture of the leading Iraqi in al-Qaeda's Iraq affiliate is no accident, comrade. You capture such people only when you have good intelligence and you have good intelligence only when the locals have turned against the terrorists.

The place of his capture -- Mosul -- is also telling. Mosul is where you go if you've been driven out of Anbar and Diyala and have no other good place to go. You don't venture into the Shiite south or the purely Kurdish north where the locals will kill you.

The charge against our previous war strategy was that we were playing whack-a-mole: they escape from here, they re-establish there. Petraeus' plan is to eliminate all al-Qaeda sanctuaries. Continued...

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About The Author

Charles Krauthammer is a 1987 Pulitzer Prize winner, 1984 National Magazine Award winner, and a columnist for The Washington Post since 1985.

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Rising Doubts
I'm a long time supporter of Charles, and, ever more reluctantly, the war. That said, the Sunnis and Shia have hated each other for milenia. It seems like thy'll continue to hate each other even more, given the carnage and slaughter of each side by the other.

As Cowboy (I think) said above, how do we know that the Sunnis will limit themselves to killing Al Qaeda ONLY? WHo's to say they won't be better armed killers of Shia, and maybe Kurds...and maybe Americans?

For those who know economics, one has to ignore sunk costs. They're gone. The killed and wounded, the billions spent...they're gone. The key is what happens prosepctively.

It's difficult to be optimistic about that God foresaken part of the world. There have always been loons of all stripes. The difference is today's loons have ever more destructive weaponry.

correct focus on Iraq
First my credentials: I am a sometime chess player (USCF postal max 2121) and graduate of HMS ('52), a particularly good combination for clear thought, no?

There has been an inappropriate change in focus by those who suggest that Iraq's inability to meet some "benchmarks" should send us running away from Al Qaeda there. This is a non sequitur. What should be the standards of judgment of our success in the Iraq portion of this war? This depends on our goal , and our goal is not to do something nice for Iraq, but to promote our own self interest. (Maliki cleverly pointed this out when he suggested we could go home anytime!) Our real self-interest reason for being in Iraq is to prevent radical Islamist, religious or secular, expansion of their lands and their weapons, especially their wmd. Shortly after our successful campaign in Afgahnistan Gen. Tommie Franks was quoted as saying that we should go into Iraq to prevent Al Qaeda from taking refuge there. He said that one of the lessons of Vietnam was never to permit your enemy to acquire a sanctuary. (Disregard all of the media revisionist history on this point.) As chess players we recognize that certain squares have higher strategic value than others. Gen Petraeus points out that Iraq is of high strategic value (like the central squares on the chess board e.g.) irrespective of who your friends or foes are. Add to that the importance to Al Qaeda of a state base or home for the creation of nuclear weapons, that are tough to make in a cave, and it is clear why Iraq is so important to them.

Well, how are we doing in terms of preventing Islamist expansion? Rather well, I"d say. Let's not be distracted by benchmarks that have become straw men.

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