There are consequences to losing a war, or being perceived not to have won.
Israel's ability to win wars has been based on its capacity to pound its
many enemies into submission whenever they have dared attack. Depending on
how you count them, Israel has been the target of at least four wars started
by one or more of her neighbors, as well as numerous terrorist attacks. It
had won all of them until 2006.
Last summer, in response to repeated guerrilla assaults by Hezbollah - or
Party of God - a militant Lebanese Shia political party, Israel invaded
Lebanon, but failed to drive out the terrorist organization, or free two
captured Israel soldiers. A committee, appointed to study why Israeli forces
were not victorious, blamed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Hezbollah quickly
regrouped and has restocked its armaments. Israel's new ambassador to the
United States, Sallai Meridor, tells me there could be another war by this
summer, probably launched from terrorist positions in Gaza, Lebanon and
possibly Syria, which has not directly attacked Israel since it was bloodied
in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Meridor says that while Hezbollah is bad, Hamas, the largest and most
influential Palestinian militant group, which is entrenched in Gaza, is even
worse. That's because Hamas, he says, has more armed terrorists and is
stockpiling missiles and explosives. It is also supported by Iran.
Hezbollah, which Israel estimates had thousands of short-range missiles when
its positions in Lebanon were attacked last summer, is supported by Iran, as
well. All share the same objective: the eradication of Israel.
The Winograd Committee report on last summer's war is an indictment of
Israel's top leadership, including the prime minister, the minister of
defense, Amir Peretz, who has announced he's leaving by the end of the
month, and the chief of staff, who also submitted his resignation. "All
three made a decisive personal contribution to these decisions and the way
in which they were made, (but) there are many others who share
responsibility for the mistakes we found in these decisionsŠ" the report
says. After specifying the many reasons the government failed to achieve
victory, the committee concluded, "All of these add up to a serious failure
in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence."
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni called upon Olmert to resign. He has refused
and in a mark of his weakness, Olmert declined to fire Livni, saying they
could continue to work together. One is left to wonder how.
Polls in Israel show Olmert's approval numbers are worse than those of
President Bush. More than 60 percent of Israelis want Olmert to resign. He
survived three "no confidence" votes in the Knesset last week. Former Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is three times as popular as any potential
rival.
Last week, Netanyahu delivered a powerful speech to Israel's Parliament in
which he said, "The state of Israel needs better leadership. Š Peace can
never be achieved by unilateral steps. Š The time for a reassessment of our
policy has come. We should look at the situation without any illusion and
restore to the state of Israel its might, deterrent power and above all our
self-respect."
When Israelis feel threatened they have always looked to the right and this
time they appear eager to again turn rightward. The London Sunday Times
quoted a Tel Aviv lawyer: "We're fed up with the Arabs and the chances of
reaching peace with them. We gave them too many chances. They don't want us
here, period. That's why I think Netanyahu and his political approach is the
right one."
If there is to be another war and so soon, Israelis are asking themselves
who they would rather have leading their nation: a wishful thinker like Ehud
Olmert, who, according to the government report on the Lebanon war, "made up
his mind hastily, despite the fact that no detailed military plan was
submitted to him and without asking for one," or Benjamin Netanyahu, who
understands better than most that Israel won't get a second chance in an
all-out war.
It's a good bet that Olmert's days are numbered and Netanyahu's return as
prime minister is drawing near. It had better come quickly, because if
Ambassador Meridor's worst-case scenario comes true, not only summer is just
around the corner; the next war may be as well. |