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Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Bruce Bartlett :: Townhall.com Columnist
Presidential Predicting
by Bruce Bartlett
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What was the biggest suprise of Election Day?



Although we are two years away from the first ballot being cast in the 2008 presidential election and don't even know who the candidates will be, we already know a great deal about how the race will turn out. Historical trends tell us that the Republican candidate will be very tough to beat regardless of who he is.

To see why this is the case, let's first look at which states voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, and those that went for both Al Gore and John Kerry. This will give us a good guide to each party's base.

Starting with Bush, we see that he carried all of these states twice: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming. They have 274 electoral votes, with 270 needed to win.

Gore and Kerry carried all of these states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. These have 248 electoral votes.

In 2000, Iowa and New Mexico went for Gore and switched to Bush in 2004. New Hampshire went for Bush in 2000, but went for Kerry in 2004. These three states are the only ones that changed party, and the vote shift was very small. In 2000, Gore won Iowa with 48.54 percent of the vote to 48.22 percent for Bush; in 2004, Bush won the state with 49.9 percent to Kerry's 49.23 percent.

A similar story is told in New Hampshire and New Mexico. Bush carried the Granite State with 48.07 percent of the vote to 46.8 percent for Gore in 2000; in 2004, Kerry got 50.24 percent to 48.87 percent for Bush. New Mexico gave Gore 47.91 percent of the vote in 2000 to Bush's 47.85 percent. In 2004, Bush took the Land of Enchantment with 49.84 percent to 49.05 percent for Kerry.

Looking at potential swing states, we see that Bush won the following states in 2000 with less than 50 percent of the vote: Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio. Gore won these states with less than 50 percent: Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin. But in 2004, there were only three states that were won with less than 50 percent of the vote: Iowa and New Mexico went for Bush, and Wisconsin went for Kerry. Continued...
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About The Author

Bruce Bartlett is a former senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis of Dallas, Texas. Bartlett is a prolific author, having published over 900 articles in national publications, and prominent magazines and published four books, including Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action.

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(9 comments so Far)
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Reply # 1
Date: Feb 28, 2007 - 11:18 PM EST
Vote American
When both parties seem eager to sell us down the Rio Grande, I have never seen a more opportune time for a third party Presidential candidate. Most Americans do not wish to give up on our Constitution, our language, our culture or our country. We do not want W's shotgun marriage of Mexiamericanada. We like our republic and we'd like to keep it. If the GOP follows W down the NAU path, they will go the way of the Whig Party. Another party will emerge. I only hope it's not too late. Importing voters for your opponents makes no sense.
Maybe the GOP will wake up, nominate a real conservative like Duncan Hunter. Probably not, Mel Martinez is RNC Chairman to prevent that. If it comes down to Rudy vs. Hillary, I predict lower turnout than the 60% from the last election. Why bother if both candidates are New York liberals? The right third party candidate could draw out many who have quit voting and draw votes from both parties. The leadership in both parties underestimate the discontent amongst the citzenry.
An aside: Virgina used to be considered a very red state. After electing 2 Democrat governors in a row and ousting George Allen in 2006, it has to be considered a purple state at best. If John Warner does not retire of his own accord, the voters will do it for him, giving the Democrats another Senate seat in 2008.
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Reply # 2
Date: Feb 27, 2007 - 4:03 PM EST
2008
Truthserum, you are full of it! I don't know how you can compare President Bush with the two farces we had as Democratic presidents; namely Clinton and Carter. Give it a break....if they hadn't tore up the military and try to introduce the isolationism policies, we wouldn't have these problems with the terrorists we have now. Our enemies saw that the two Cs had no back bone when it came to standing up for our nation and security. So they walked all over us.
Of yes, let's take the fact that President clinton's advisors to the economy told him before the 2000 elections that recession was conig early in the next year. Whay did he do, kept quiet so President Bush would get the blame.
Yeah such a great president! What happened to those great Clinton accomplishments that were lies yet he's remembered for getting them done, right? He didn't balance the budget, He did not put 100,000 policemen on the streets and he did not work the economic programs that brought thr country back after the senior Bush presidency. He was like the car salesman when the big wig comes in to buy a fleet of vehicles, he just happened to be there when things got better.
In 2008, the Democrats are going to split and fight over Obama and Hitllery. John McCain will walk into the presidency. Because the unhappy Democrats will vote Republican.
Sound far fetched..........its very possible
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