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Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Bruce Bartlett :: Townhall.com Columnist
Wages of Stagnation
by Bruce Bartlett
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Lately, there has been a big debate going on among Democrats about why workers aren't outraged by their economic condition, and therefore more hostile to Republican economic policies and more sympathetic to Democratic policies.

On the surface, it would appear that workers should be in open revolt. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average worker is no better off today than he was seven years ago in real terms. In August 2006, his average weekly earnings were $275.49. In August 1999, they were $275.61 (both in constant 1982 dollars).

Census Bureau data confirm this trend. According to recently released information, median annual earnings for men fell to $41,386 in 2005 from $43,158 in 2003 (in 2005 dollars), despite steady economic growth. Male earnings in 2005 were lower than in every year since 1997. Female earnings also fell in 2005 to $31,858 from $32,285 a year earlier and were lower than in any year since 2000.

Looking at the broadest measure of economic well-being, median household income, we also see flatness. In 2005, the median income -- the point at which half of households are above and half are below -- was $46,326. This was up from the levels in 2002, 2003 and 2004, but below those registered from 1998 to 2001. Median household income peaked in 1999 at $47,671 (in 2005 dollars) and fell every year thereafter until 2005's small uptick.

There is no simple explanation for worker passivity in the face of income stagnation. One argument is that labor union membership has fallen sharply over the last generation and, consequently, workers have no organizational mechanism through which to bargain for higher wages or protest wage stagnation politically. In 2005, labor union membership was down to just 7.8 percent of private sector workers, from 24.2 percent in 1973.

Another possibility is that workers have been so beaten down by layoffs and give-backs in recent years that they are just grateful to have jobs at all, even if their pay stinks. And because of declining health coverage by employers, those lucky enough to have health insurance may feel compelled to hold onto such jobs. If they switch to another job, they may get higher pay but lose their health benefits in the process.

Indeed, the rising cost of health benefits is a key reason for the flatness of wages. From the point of view of employers, their total labor costs have risen sharply. But all of the increase has gone into benefits, with nothing left over to raise wages. Workers may not like this fact, but accept its reality.

According to the BLS, wages and salaries have fallen from 72.6 percent of total compensation in 2000 to 70 percent in June of this year. At the same time, health benefits have risen from 5.9 percent of compensation to 7.7 percent. Continued...

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About The Author

Bruce Bartlett is a former senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis of Dallas, Texas. Bartlett is a prolific author, having published over 900 articles in national publications, and prominent magazines and published four books, including Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action.

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Lies, D*mn Lies and Statistics
Bartlett should be ashamed of himself. This is the worst kind of abuse of statistics. This is what liberals do when they want to obscure the economic success we have been experiencing. They conflate an average worker's wages with the average wages of workers. The two are not the same thing.

This article implies that a 40 year old worker in 1998 is making less money now than he was then. This conclusion can not be logically drawn from the BLS data. The reason is that the worker is now 48 and he has 8 more years of experience and seniority. He is very likely making more money, not less.

You can claim that an "average" 40 year old is making less than an "average" 40 year old 8 years ago, but even that doesn't begin to take into account the hundreds of factors that can account for the change. The job situation has changed so much in composition over the last 8 years that any comparison is bound to be flawed.

The biggest change no one has mentioned yet is the tech bubble of the late 90's. There was Internet boom and there was Y2K (Remember that?) COBOL programmers who were making $45k in 1990 found themselves earning $200k in 1998 and 1999 while companies scrambled to get their systems updated in time for 2000. Come 2000, they went back to their $45k jobs if they could get them. A lot of them ended up selling real estate.

Internet startups were throwing around high salaries and stock options like drugs at a Grateful Dead concert. Almost anyone with computer experience could get a 6 figure income. That obviously pushed the "average" wage figure much higher than it would have been otherwise. To compare wages now to wages then fails to take that aberration into account.

Bartlett should understand this if he is going to write about BLS statistics. If he is not willing to the work, he should stick to topics he understands.

Wages of Stagnation
In addition to the factors mentioned in the article there is also the Wal-Mart Factor, and the up side of outsourcing: lower prices on manufactured goods and higher paying jobs in the US due to Globalization.
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