But if the government's goal is to lower the cost of health care, it might start requiring doctors to use the "winning" drug, especially if it’s a generic. And then you can take that a step further and figure the government might try to put a price tag on the incremental benefit a drug brings. How much is the extra 1.6 months of extended survival -- or whatever it turns out to be in a true head-to-head trial -- worth for Dendreon 's (Nasdaq: DNDN) Provenge compared to sanofi-aventis ' Taxotere? And is that worth the likely price difference in treatments?
Slippery slope indeed.
The end result of the added risk -- a company not only has to show that the drug works, but that it works better -- might stifle innovation. Companies may avoid developing drugs for fear of marketing failure due to comparative studies, which would be a shame for both patients and investors. After all, the world's best selling drug, Pfizer 's (NYSE: PFE) Lipitor, was essentially a "me-too" drug, following fellow statins made by Merck (NYSE: MRK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY).
What's a Foolish investor to do? The best thing is probably to do nothing, for now. We're likely a ways away from seeing the full impact of comparative medicine. But, because it’s a big unknown with huge potential to move toward socialized medicine, investors need to be extremely careful and be willing to jump ship if it comes to that.
Compare and contrast this Foolishness:
Brian Orelli is a Motley Fool contributor.
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