Holly Fretwell, an economist by training, has done her best to bring some needed critical thinking to the global-warming debate by writing “The Sky’s Not  Falling! -- Why It’s OK to Chill About Global Warming.” Aimed at 8- to 12-year-olds and their parents, it is a good, reasoned, 115-page antidote to the Chicken Little hysteria and propaganda found in the mainstream media and in places like Laurie David’s kids book “The Down-to-Earth Guide to Global Warming.” Fretwell is a research fellow who focuses on natural-resource issues and public-lands management at the free-market Property and Environment Research Center (PERC) in Bozeman, Mont. I talked to her by telephone on Wednesday, Jan. 16:

Q: The sound-bite synopsis of your position on climate change or global warming is what?

A: Really it's that I am tired of seeing propaganda and I want people to understand the truth and to know what some of the best possible alternatives are to solving all the different issues throughout the world -- not just global warming. I want people to become critical thinkers.

Q: What do you say is going on with climate change?

A: We do see the Earth is warming. We are coming out of an ice age and we’d expect to see some warming. The Earth has warmed and cooled and warmed and cooled and warmed and cooled many, many times over its history -- long before humans were on Earth and also since humans have been on Earth. We do see a correlation between CO2 in the atmosphere and temperature change in present times and even if we go back into history.

But as any scientist can tell you, correlation is not causation. We need to be very careful about that. We have a lot of people out there trying to tell us that because one thing is happening, it’s causing another thing, when, in fact, we really don’t know that. There’s a lot of uncertainty out there.

If you actually go back and look at the data that shows CO2 levels and temperature changes over the last 650,000 years, what we find is that temperature actually changes first and CO2 in the atmosphere follows that temperature change. Maybe I should say that again: Temperature changes first.  CO2 lags the temperature change. We know that humans are emitting CO2; the point being, however, there is no reason to believe that CO2 is causing temperature change when it is following temperature rises over the history of the data we have.

Q: What’s the biggest whopper you’ve heard about global warming that is being aimed at either your kids or at school kids in general?

A: That humans are terrible, terrible polluters and we’re ruining the world. There was a show with Linda Ellerbee on Nickelodeon several months back, and I sat down and I watched it with my kids. My youngest son looked at me after the show and he said, “Mom, is this show really way out of the ballpark or are we all going to die?”

Q: And how old is he?

A: Eight.

Q: At least he’s asking the right questions.

A: He is. But shows like that really scare people. I don’t think that’s necessary. I really want to educate people and let them try to solve the problems instead of trying to scare them into being afraid of things.

Q: There is a lot of science that we don’t know yet, as you stress in the book. And you also stress that we shouldn’t panic, like Chicken Little, but try to understand what is really happening and why it is happening. What’s the most important thing about global warming that we still don’t know?

A: Why climate changes. We really don’t know. We know so much, and we have so many ideas of why climate changes and how all these different factors may impact climate. But we really don’t understand how they all work together or which ones override the others. We’re talking about the energy that’s coming from the sun, the way the Earth travels around the sun; we have all sorts of cycles like Milankovitch Cycles, etc., that have some impact on the climate.

But we really don’t know how they work together and we’re really not very good at predicting how they work together. Think about how well we are at predicting the weather tomorrow or next week and now try to extend that out 100 years. We’re really no better at predicting long-term climate change than we are at predicting short-term climate, although they are two very different things.

Q: Is there any chance of getting your book placed in grade schools -- or schools of journalism?

A: Perhaps if I was a millionaire and bought them and handed them all out. ... I think the chance of this getting out really widespread is slim, but the reason I wrote the book is because I want at least a few people to get it out there, begin to understand the knowledge and then pass it on. It’s going to be a slow process. But nature is helping me out a little bit, and so are scientists, because it’s becoming a little more accepted that, “Gosh, maybe it’s not CO2 and humans that are causing this change in climate. Maybe there is a lot more natural variability out there than we previously thought there was or than we previously heard about."

Q: There’s almost as much economics in your book as science. How does economics help you explain what’s going on with climate change?

A: I’m trained as an economist, hence the reason there’s more economics in there, and I’m trained as a policy analyst, and economics has a huge impact on policy and policy implications. My biggest fear about what people are learning about climate change is that, “Oh, my gosh, we have to put on all these regulations and stop people from emitting CO2 and tax everybody and do all sorts of things that are going to cost us an immense amount of money.”

I believe we should have a cleaner environment; we should try to improve our environment and there are some ways that are better at doing that than others. I don't think making people pay huge costs for emitting CO2 is very productive and I don’t think it is providing benefits that are greater than what it would cost us to do. Continued...