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Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Bill Steigerwald :: Townhall.com Columnist
Behind the California Wildfires with Dr. Reese
by Bill Steigerwald
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As several of Southern California's wind-whipped wildfires still burned on Thursday, we called conservation biologist and forest researcher Dr. Reese Halter to learn more about the 20 fires that had destroyed 2,000 homes, forced the evacuation of more than 500,000 people and left at least eight dead. Halter, the author of "Wild Weather: The Truth Behind Global Warming," is the founder and president of Global Forest Science (globalforestscience.org), a forest conservation and research institute that helps private landholders, governments and corporations around the world "make better ecological decisions." He was in Rancho Mirage, near Palm Springs.

Q: Are these fires unprecedented?

A: In modern times, yes. There are at least five things that have collided here to make this all happen:

No. 1, a warmer Earth is a drier Earth. In the West and Southwest, a drier Earth translates to more fires. Since 1877, the inception of record-keeping, we’ve not seen it this dry. How dry is it? June 30 to June 30 is our moisture year. We normally get 16.25 inches of rainfall every year. Last year we had a hair over 3.5 inches of precipitation. We’ve had trace amounts since the 30th of June. So now were into -- what’s that, 16 coming into 17 months? -- and it’s buck dry.

The second thing is, with the drought we’ve got a water situation. The Los Angeles basin -- 16 million people, industry and a little bit of agriculture -- draws the brunt of its drinking water from the eastern Sierras. We call it the snowpack. Last year was the second-lowest recording of snowfall since we’ve been keeping records. We’ve got a water problem.

Thirdly, we’ve got a forest mismanagement problem. Over the last 80 years, a "Smokey the Bear" fire-suppression policy has stopped Mother Nature’s natural fire cycle. At varying intervals, because the forest types vary from valley bottom to mountain, we’d be safe to say on average fire shows itself every 20 years or so. So that is at least four fire cycles we’ve suppressed. Think of fire like this: Fire is Mother Nature’s cleansing broom along the forest floor and in her forests. When we stop that agent of change, the first thing that she has done is carpeted the forest floor with hundreds of millions of white fir and incense-cedar seedlings and saplings. They are highly combustible.

We’ve also got another factor: hundreds and hundreds of thousands of homeowners backed into canyons at what we call this "urban-wildland interface."

The last ingredient is the Santa Ana winds. We’ve got Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico -- the red rock country -- that heats up for four, maybe five months. The earth gets so warm, high pressure forms over top of them and you get these massive, exceedingly dry, outflow winds. Where do they go? Through the Santa Ana Mountains -- the Santa Ana winds. The coast is usually 80 percent relative humidity. When this thing starts, it gets down to 11 or 12 percent relative humidity. In other words, these winds infuse this dry air that sucks out the moisture. There’s an outpouring from the canyons that is phenomenal.

Lastly, of course, is the ignition. With the ignition, there is absolutely nothing you can do when these firestorms with their cyclonic winds start except get the hell out of here.

Q: What’s actually burning and why does it burn so fiercely?

A: What’s burning is our overstocked forest with white fir and incense-cedar. Their foliage is highly combustible. The underbrush and all the other plants are snap-crackle-pop dry. When these fires start, it’s almost as though the forest is willing itself to burn because it is so hurt from the drought. The other ingredient we didn’t mention is, when we told Mother Nature she couldn’t burn she sent in her other emissaries of change -- bark beetles. They are native to our lands. There are tens of millions of dead trees in Southern California. There are conservatively in the Lower 48 states in the west of our nation a billion dead trees from bark beetles and drought. So we have this combustible stuff on the forest floor that normally the fire cycle would clear out; we’ve got a massive amount of dead wood from drought-starved and beetle-killed trees; and we’ve got homes butted up right against them.

Q: So what do we do?

A: That’s the $64,000 question. What we can do -- what we must do -- is mimic Mother Nature. If we’re not going to allow fire, we’ve got to get in there and we’ve got to thin the underbrush out. Now the $65,000 question is, "So, Dr. Reese, are you saying Gov. Schwarzenegger and other governors should increase taxes?" No. We fight fires in California, in part, using prison inmates on the fire lines. What we have asked -- and I think they are finally getting this -- is to substitute the chain saw for a brush saw and get these prison inmates at this urban-wildland interface thinning out the forest. At a buck an hour, we can handle that. There are millions of acres. Can they do it overnight? No. Should they start as soon as these ashes and embers cool down? Yes. Will it take years? Probably.

Q: There’s no other way to prevent these fires from recurring and recurring?

A: No. In a perfect world, I’d say let fire burn. But what person after 17 months of a drought is going to say, "Oh yeah, drop a match"? That’s just not going to happen. They’ve tried burning, and they (the Forest Service) do it when they can. We’ve got fire science going back 65 years. Fire ecologists get the importance of fire. It’s now just dealing with the human footprint on the landscape. That’s why I say the only thing we can do is manually thin out the underbrush. It’s doable. In 2003, if you had interviewed us, people would have said, "Oh, well now we have a little breather." Four years later we are having these cataclysmic fires and we could have them again and again because of the dry conditions here.

Q: The fires that burned this last week -– how long will that terrain be safe from future fires?

A: They’ll be all right for the next 10 or 15 years, but they’ll green up. It’ll likely be incense-cedar and white fir. It’ll be pine and it’ll be a mix but they aren’t a concern for the next decade or so.

Q: So you’re not saying people shouldn’t be living on this terrain?

A: No. We live in a free country. That’s one of the great things of this nation -– you can live anywhere you want as long as you have a permit. You can’t stop people. We’ve got 37 million people and probably 5 million illegals. They’ve got to live somewhere.

Q: The terrain that is actually burning, is it state land, private land?

A: It’s a combination. We’ve got it in national forests, state forests, Bureau of Land Management lands --- it’s all over. This is that funky urban-wildland interface. It’s a cocktail of everybody’s stuff. But we’ve got to do something. Look, for goodness' sakes, you wouldn’t want to be Schwarzenegger’s folks because they are going to be on the hot seat. We’ve already lost at least $1 billion in damage to property and businesses. We look for heads to roll here.

Q: Has the government -- federal or state -- changed their fire-suppression policies?

A: Sure they have. The landmark turning point was 1988 when Yellowstone caught on fire and the policy came down "Let it burn" and it was cataclysmic. But I’ll tell you, if you want to bring a big-old smile to your face, if you ever get a chance to go to Yellowstone now, it’s just so gorgeous in its restoration. In my latest book, "Wild Weather," we talk about this; fire has been here on Earth in these forests for at least 350 million years. So it’s just people. It’s a people-management thing.

Q: So you’re not an anti-people person?

A: Nooooo. I’m a problem solver, like you. And a communicator. The Old Economy is us-versus-them – like a win-lose. We’ve got to find a new economy where businesses win, communities win and the environment wins.

Q: What happens now to this land that has been burned so fiercely?

A: The biggest concern, of course, is mudslides. We are coming into a – touch wood – wetter period, a rainy period. Hillside "slumping" is a real problem. The second thing we are concerned with is some of these fires are burning with such intensity and ferocity that forests may not come back. In other words, Forest Ecology 101: Arguably the most important thing in the forest – this is going to sound bizarre – is the soil. If you hammer the soil -- if you beat up your soil, if you burn it so hard that it chars the soil – and then it rains? The soil repels the water and doesn’t absorb it. When that happens under these burned conditions, the only thing we can do is get prison people and others to get in there and rip the soil, open it up, so moisture can get in. That’s a very serious problem. We’ve seen this throughout the West, the Southwest in particular, over the last 14 years. With fire suppression, global warming and the ferocity of the fire, it’s scarring the soil.

Q: Are these fires the beginning of a run of more of these kinds of unstoppable fires?

A: Yeah. Here is a stat that will blow your mind: Since ’87, the number of fires has quadrupled and the size of the fires has increased sixfold. Our fire-keeping records date to 1960. Last year we had the most amount of wildland forest ever burned, a hair under 10 million acres. This year we are in second place. I don’t know how the chips will fall. The calendrical year is not over. We’re either going to be a very close second or we’re going to eclipse it. We’ve just seen filthy fire season after fire season. You know, the West is huge. We’ve got a lot more acres to go. We’re very worried. I was in Idaho this summer and there were two epic fires there that both burned well over 300,000 acres each. We’re coming into these mega-fires. It’s a concern. Another concern you may wish to enter into the scenario in a warmer world is seeing less snowfall on the mountain ranges throughout western North America. It’s way down. It’s way down in the Pacific Cascades. You know, 90 percent of our water in Southern California, that drives the eighth mightiest economy on planet Earth, comes from the Sierra Nevadas. We’re finger-crossed that we’re not lambasted all at once, but the forecasts and models are for reduced snowfall. So we’ve got to become water-smart, we’ve got to become fire-smart in how we manage it.

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About The Author
Bill Steigerwald, born and raised in Pittsburgh, is a former L.A. Times copy editor and free-lancer who also worked as a docudrama researcher for CBS-TV in Hollywood before becoming a reporter for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and a columnist Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Bill Steigerwald recently retired from daily newspaper journalism..
 
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My 2 cents
When I lived in California in 1970 the population was about 11 million. According to this article it has quadrupled in the last 37+ years.

Grace a Dieu that I don't live there anymore.

Mine too
I lived in California in the 1970s and moved out in 1976 just in time to experience the Blizzard of 76 in Buffalo NY.

Everywhere you live, you have Weather. Find out what kind you have where you are, and deal with the situation as it exists, not as you imagine it ought to exist. Then when your idiot bus driver decides that since the New York State Thruway is closed by a big snowstorm, the ideal solution is to take that Greyhound bus onto secondary roads and you end up stuck in a drift in Corfu, NY, you will not be among the idiots on board who did not wear hats, coats, gloves or boots, and who do not have a flashlight, radio, water bottle or warm socks (or those wonderful little chemical foot and hand warmers either).

And when you live in the path of a brushfire, for heavens sake plan ahead.

Stop building there...
...Like Arnold "They'll be back." If you build there,then take your lumps.

Things that don't excite me : "Flood along the Missippi"."Tornado in Kansas". "Hurricane in Florida".

Fire
This column is spot on! Mother Nature has created certain combustible plants, pods, etc., to start fire and clean the underbrush. The environmentalists really screwed-up by preventing logging and natures fires from house cleaning.

At least they have learned.

If you have ever lived near one of these massive wildfires, you would be as terrified as I have been. Fires move quickly and continually shift direction. Now, lets put the inmates to work!

If...
...you need a permit, you are not free!

A Reasonable Discussion
Dr. Reese responds without name calling and trys to avoid pointing fingers. But as he says, living in an area that essentially has no water and must import it from the north is asking for trouble. Living behind a dike in New Orleans or within a short distance of a coast in Florida is packed with danger and people will die and assets destroyed. A new tale?

Questions
If there really is a Corfu, New York, and what a strange juxtaposition of place names that is, where is it?

When did the Briticism "spot on" become a favourite expression of some Americans?

san diego is different
just a couple things.

our fires are brush fires, the nearest forest is 45 miles away.

this fire burned areas that had been burned 4 years ago, because the brush comes back quickly.

it is not possible to use a controlled burn because most of the homes are built on the side of canyons and winds shift and swoope even on calm days.

as far as inmates clearing brush, well it will take them awhile to do the 420 square miles that burned.

Use and give It, Or Lose it!
This link is to an email that has remained for our benefit. It holds part of the answer to an enigma on weather that my brother personally has seen function. From one year to another the weather was transformed, until political ignorance forced them to abandon the application. We are ignoring an important area, and because we are ignoring that area, that science applied is not fully functional, which is the key to a complete solution.

See more: http://www.his.com/~buck/peter/gaia/waterbat.htm

"The more effective the trees are as pumps, the more water they can sequester in the air, and prevent from flowing out of the system via the rivers. In a forested area a thousand miles wide, a mean wind speed of 5 miles per hour will carry any on water molecule only 40 miles in any 8 Hour period, which means that the potential loss, worst case, from ‘throwing away’ water is only 4%, whereas the loss from not throwing it away would be total. Thus Zen-like, the forest keeps its water by giving it away. A clearer case of absolute altruism cannot be found, one that works only if it is performed in a security engendered by absolute community of being."

If you have any questions get in touch with my brother,
Phillip L. Hansen
webmaster@action-nutrition.50megs.com

religiouslib
You've made a good point that new cedar/fir growth in the forests was not the sole issue in the fires -- it was more so for the Slide and Grass Valley fires in the Running Springs/Arrowhead area north of me, in the San Bernardinos. But ground brush was the accelerating factor in San Diego County. The remedy is the same, though: clear the brush.

Sensible homeowners and businesses are already taking measures, like brush-clearing, to fireproof their properties, and counties and the state can play a role in standards for property maintenance. A private yard full of combustible brush can accelerate a fire to its neighbors -- it IS a community problem, and not just the problem of individual homeowners.

I also propose, on the water shortage/drought topic, that communities like those in the Palm Springs area immediately stop maintaining the vast acres of green, clipped grass you find there, all over the public spaces. Completely artificial, and maintained at a tremendous cost in scarce water. Agriculture and individuals should not have to compete with that for our water. It's a desert, people! It's not supposed to look like central Florida.

I'm slowly eating away at the grass in my yard, replacing it with native-plant landscaping (can't afford to do it all at once), and I hope more people will go this route. Like building 4000-square foot frame houses on the Outer Banks, where hurricanes come through and decimate them every ten years, spraying water all over your yard in southern California is just stupid. It's a desert climate. If you don't want to live in one, go somewhere else.

Is home insurance subsidized?
Are the homeowners paying the full freight in CA? OR does the gummint subsidize in fire-prone areas? Anyone know?

Environmental sanity
During the Cedar fire 800 year old sugar pine burned on Cuyamaca Peak due to the ladder fuels that have grown beneath since the area became a State Park. These and other trees have been replaced with ceanothus. Thousands of acres of ceanothus. Give the recent burn frequency the pines will never come back. These mountains will have gone from forest to brush in our lifetime and because of the preservation mentality that will not allow people to walk on, much less manage, non-indigenous grass because of the “environmental damage” it would cause. The areas that survived the Cedar fire best were cattle land, and campgrounds. Surprise! All the areas “preserved” from human encroachment were, for the most part, completely destroyed. The Sierra Club and those who agree with them bear a large part of the responsibility for this disaster.
We need wild land restoration as well as preservation.

Control burns will work fine in the already burned areas if we start now before the brush re-grows. If we wait, the next disaster is only four years away.

Dense forests in southern California are not healthy forests. Too many trees will lead to competition for water, beetles, and increased fire danger. If trees are far enough apart, the fire will not be able to sustain a crown fire.

Lastly we need to look to the indigenous peoples who lived on the land before the giant redwoods and sequoias grew, since the last ice age, and emulate their land management practices. Their use of terracing hillsides, damming small streams, and yearly burning would make for a healthier, safer, ecosystem.

DocJ
I'm not aware of any subsidy programs for fire insurance in California. I certainly pay my own freight. This latest round of fires will prompt some state and federal aid to property owners, as the 2003 fires did. But insurance payouts will be the primary means of compensating home and business owners for their losses.

Those of us insuring homes in much of San Diego and Riverside Counties saw our homeowners' insurance rates increase after the big 2003 fire payouts. I expect we will see the same over the next few years, as the impact from this year's fires is felt.

An advantage in insurance premiums, for homeowners who keep brush cleared and use less-flammable construction materials, could go a long way in encouraging people to fireproof their properties. For the insurance industry, I imagine one obstacle to offering such reductions would be the need to inspect and verify. That would be costly.

The brush burns
because the Santa Ana winds dry it out, rub the branches and twigs together, and start their own fires whether mankind is around or not.

Fires are nature's clean up. They kill off ticks and fleas and mold spores and clear out the undergrowth congestion and leave cleared ground for near growth.

The best way to manage the fires is 1) make residents buy spec. fire ins. as people near oceans buy flood ins., 2) require new zoning that severely limits building in dangerous areas, 3) make local people pay for more fire fighting, instead of relying on the feds.

Forest Fires
Am I the only one who remembers that Pres. George W. Bush wanted to do controlled cutting in the forests and the libs in Calif. went crazy.
You would have a lot more forest left if the cutting had been allowed.

Digger

dyerje
as usual you are an objective and clear headed poster.

here in san diego, controlled burns can't be done on the canyons because the houses are on top and the wind shifting (because of topography) makes it possible for it to get out of control in a few seconds even on moist and mildly windy days.

it is not environmental prohibitions in the brush wildlands it is just nature.
some of the same areas that burned in the cedar fire burned again this year.

digger
i can only speak to san diego county but we don't have forests except in the mountains.

these fires start in chaparral (tumbleweed) which grows back every year.

to clear 420 square miles would take quite a bit of time don't you think?

this is not a liberal or conservative issue.
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