Talk about ironic. I originally submitted this article to
my editor over a year ago, after the Dow had fallen "all the
way" to 11,500 -- but it didn't get published. And how, here
we are, rooting for the Dow to get "all the way" back to
10,000 -- which it has.
My original plan was to take you back to 1996 -- when the
Dow surpassed the 6,000 mark for the first time ever -- to a
Charlie Rose roundtablethat included Jim Cramer and
Motley Fool co-founders David and Tom Gardner.
Another crazy call by Cramer
Back then, Cramer argued that the Dow would soar all
the way to 7,500 -- despite the fact that it had already more
than doubled in just five years and shares of behemoths like
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO),
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), and
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) had risen more than
100% from their 1991 lows.
Meanwhile, David and Tom took a much different approach,
telling viewers, "We don't care where the market is headed."
They explained that they were focused on finding the best
eight or nine stocks to grow your wealth over the long haul.
Basically, they searched for stocks that:
My article went on to show how, early on, this approach
led them to America Online,
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), and
eBay , among others -- and landed them on the
covers of everything from
Fortuneto
Newsweek. But I also thought it fair to point out
that it was hard
notto get rich in that market.
After all, Cramer was right on the money. The Dow soared
to far more than 9,000 in 1998, and reached a whopping 11,500
less than two years after that -- which is exactly where it
stood on Aug. 29, 2008, when I submitted my article.
Could my timing be any worse?
Sure, we were in the middle of a fierce bear market --
but I pointed out that of the 24 stocks that David and Tom
recommended to their
Motley Fool Stock Advisor
subscribers during the last bear market ...
I even added, "I bring this up merely to illustrate that
despite what all the talking heads on TV are telling you, you
absolutely should be buying great companies right now --
while they are still selling at massive discounts."
I'd almost jokingly insinuated that the Dow could drop to
7,500 ... and then, within six weeks, we were a mere 200
points from seeing it do just that.
How quickly we forget
Since March, we have seen one of the most historic
rebounds in market history, and witnessed shares of
everything from
Ford (NYSE: F) to
Palm (Nasdaq: PALM) to
Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) soar along an almost
unprecedented trajectory.
Now -- just like back in 1996 -- most investors are
spending their time debating whether the next thousand-point
move will be up or down.
While that's certainly
an interesting topic of conversation, I'm going to
instead suggest that you think about some advice that Tom
Gardner recently gave us at a companywide "huddle."
How you can turn losses into a huge win
Tom pointed out that when things are going well, most
of us spend all of our time high-fiving and celebrating. When
things go sour, we turn to sulking, worrying, and even
panicking.
Meanwhile, when the going gets tough for the toughest,
smartest, and most successful people out there ... they learn
from it. And that's what sets them apart.
Case in point: Benjamin Graham
He went bankrupt three times as an investor. But each
time, he documented and studied his failures, and he was
eventually able to impart this investment wisdom to countless
others -- including Warren Buffett, who in turn learned from
his own mistakes and failures.
Early in Buffett's career, he mistakenly believed he could
save a failing textile mill. After being forced to liquidate
its textile operations, Buffett learned to pay up for
quality. He turned that failing company into a $140 billion
legend.
Another great example is Pixar's John Lasseter. After he
graduated from college,
Disney hired him to captain its Jungle Cruise
ride at Disneyland. Later, the company gave him a shot at
being an animator, and he quickly recognized the ability of
new computer technologies to revolutionize animation.
But Disney was so unimpressed with his first feature that
it fired him on the spot. So Lasseter went back to the
drawing board. After fine-tuning his process, he moved on to
the company that would become Pixar, where he's won two
Academy Awards and churned out a string of blockbuster hits
that included
Toy Story,
A Bug's Life, and
Cars.
Oh, and let's not forget -- he and Steve Jobs later sold
Pixar to Disney for a cool $7.4 billion.
Now it's your turn
At the end of last August, I never would have imagined
that we would really see the Dow hit 7,500 -- much less
almost hit 6,500. Similarly, in March, I never would have
imagined we'd be back to 10,000 so quickly. Continued... |