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Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
Grab the Planet by the Throat ...
by Austin Bay
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Pirates, Iran's corrupt tyranny of mullahs and now international cyber attackers all seek to exploit economic and psychological choke points.

Geography provides Somalia's pirates with a throat to choke. Somali pirates pursue a strategy of attacking vulnerable cargo ships as they approach or exit a global maritime bottleneck, in this case Egypt's Suez Canal, which connects the Red and Mediterranean seas.

The Gulf of Aden, where the majority of Somali pirate attacks occur, lies between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Sea lanes to and from the Indian Ocean meet and narrow in the Gulf of Aden, making it a grand geographic funnel for the Red Sea and Suez.

Cargo vessels connecting Asian and European economic powers (India and China to Western Europe) face an expensive choice: either take the long, slow route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope or take the Suez shortcut but risk attacks by pirates operating from Somalia's convenient (and police-less) shores. The pirates, like wolves eyeing a cattle herd gathering in a valley pass, try to select the most vulnerable targets.

Now move north, and once again geography aids outlaws. The Bab al Mandaab, the strait connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, splits Yemen (on the Arabian peninsula) from Djibouti and Eritrea (in Africa) and further constricts shipping traffic approaching Suez.

Straits have always posed problems for mariners. Odysseus had to squeeze his ship between Scylla and Charbydis, figurative monsters portraying the literal threat of narrowing cliffs, shoals and whirlpools. Today's literal monsters include sea mines and anti-ship missiles.

No, the Bab al Mandaab hasn't been closed by mines and missiles -- not yet. However, in late spring 2008, Eritrea suddenly launched a brief border war with Djibouti over waterfront property. Eritrea, like Iran, is at odds with the United States and United Nations. It has a variety of reasons, some legitimate (for example, Ethiopia reneged on a border demarcation agreement), some less so (Eritrea supports Somali Islamists in league with al-Qaida).

In May 2008, after meeting with Eritrea's president, Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran and Eritrea shared "common views" on regional and global issues and were prepared "to resist" the hegemonic system. The hegemonic system is the American-led global system, which relies on cargo vessels passing through narrow straits.

Eritrea's attack on Djibouti sent that message, an echo of the message Iran sends every time it threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. That strait connects the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf, and at least 30 percent of the world's oil supply transits Hormuz in tankers. Close the Hormuz chokepoint, and you damage modern economies. Threaten to close it, and the price of oil spikes -- and Iran's mullahs pocket the cash. (As a historical note, today's United Arab Emirates, next door to Hormuz, was once a "pirate coast," with Hormuz providing targets.)

This isn't a conspiracy theory, it's geo-strategic choke point reality. Local and even tribal issues actually propel many small-scale conflicts around the globe, but geography attracts other interested parties and troublemakers. Radical Islamists were very interested in the Achehnese rebellion on the Indonesian island of Sumatra. Yes, they shared religious concerns, but Aceh Province also bordered the entrance to the Straits of Malacca, which connect the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

The U.S. Navy will argue that completely closing a major strait like Hormuz is tough to do, and the Navy is correct. But if an admiral says he hasn't pondered the military, economic and political challenges presented by near-simultaneous (likely coordinated) outlaw attacks that affect two or three major straits, he's spinning you.

Cyber attackers also probe for digital chokepoints. Computers guide America's electrical grids -- they are an information nexus. Two weeks ago, U.S. intelligence agencies revealed that hackers (likely from China and Russia) had inserted software that "could damage (electrical grid) infrastructure." Blackouts wreak economic havoc. Knocking out power nationally is a psychological and political shock. Cyberspace is complex terrain, but the same idea obtains: squeeze a vulnerable throat.

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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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©Creators Syndicate
Pirates & Saudi Arabia
I lived for a number of years in Saudi Arabia. Do you know what they did to terrorists? They killed them right now! They didn't wait around for trials and such, they killed the terrorists and sometimes the hostages got in the way. It was a terrible thing for the unlucky hostages, but they seldom have hostage-taking incidents. So, in the long run, it was good for everyone. I'll bet that the Somalis give Saudi-flagged ships a wide berth. They concentrate on countries that give a pirate a very fair, five years in the process, trial. This Somali pirate that has been taken into custody won't see a trial for at least five years, and then the liberals will give us a lot of sob stories about how young he is (he looks at least 18 to me, maybe 20). His poor parents are probably living the high life from his pirating exploits, and they cry that he is only a child of 16. Any child who is wielding an AK47 is old enough for whatever penalty for priracy. After this child sits in a US prison for the 5 years prior to trial, he has had three good meals a day a clean bed and learned everything he needs to know via TV, what would he do if he were released? He would know what luxury he really wants and go after the money.

Interesting
How many things are getting a choke hold these days.

Pirates, cyber terrorists, the EPA...

Welcome To The Real World

As I am typing, I am listening to Israeli radio online. The current word there is that Iran will have a nuclear weapon within 60 days. Nethanayu is supposed to come to Washington to visit Obama next month, if he leaves without the full support of Washington, Israel will go it alone and take out Iran's nuclear sites and deep-underground bunkers using the Samson Option.

The "Samson Option" is a term used to describe Israel’s deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a “last resort” against nations whose military attacks threaten its existence, and possibly against other targets as well.

Like Bush, who came in as "The Education President", but got hit with 09.11.01, Obama's strategy here may be massively changed in a short time period.

If you guys think that what has happened in the past will affect what is going on right now one iota, you fail to comprehend the world.

Our economy is hanging on by a thread, with the other's shoes of the credit cards and commerical real estate market ready to drop. We are already involved in two wars and may be drawn into another. I hope that y'all are ready for a new draft because we don't have the troops available to fight everywhere, especially if we have to treat terrorists with kid gloves.

If the Little Satan is obliterated first, Iran will set its sight on us, The Great Satan, because it wants catastrophic destruction so as to "hasten the return of the 12th Imam".

Welcome to the real world, folks!

Obama Is Just Mutton to the Real World
Welcome to the real world, Barack Obama. There are plenty of bears, lions and tigers out there and they don't give a fig if you tilt your head and say, "We're sorry."

Staying on the animal analogy, you're like a lamb and these carnivores are circling, smelling fresh blood.

Barbara
Sorry to disappoint you, but the Saudis paid a $3 million ransom for a Saudi flagged tanker.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/world/africa/10somalia.ht ml?ref=world

Hostes humani generis
Is there some information that our government needs to extract from this captured pirate by means of giving him a comfortable cell and a serving of milk and cookies?

Hang him from a yardarm, then throw his corpse to the sharks -- ideally within sight of the shore. And the next one. And the one after that. And the one after that.

If this lesson isn't learned, then mine their harbors, and drop napalm on their lairs.


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true
This is a good description of a geopolitical reality. There are narrow areas that are fundemental to shipping in ways that allow weak groups to gain disproportionate power. I was waiting to see what Bay's solution to this was (not expecting to like it), and it never came. But as a description of the problem this column is a good one.

Pirates
I don't know why we are placing a priority on dealing with Somali pirates when the worlds greatest pirate appears to be operating right her in the U.S. He is using both psychological and economic chokepoints to steal a little more of our freedom, every day, while we stand around with our heads where the sun don't shine.

Aka/Denise-LA
I'm not surprised to hear Nethanayu's postion on the Iranian situation and I hope he implements his preventive action option.. I've said for years, that had "Jimmy Who" made the world's biggest Parking Lot out of Tehran during the Hostage episode, many of the problems we have wouldn't exist..CHEERS

GOODBBYE AMERICA
When they kicked God out of schools
and prayers out of the lunchroom;the ten commandments out of the court houses or anything to do with the christisn religion.God has taken his hand of protection off the USA. So don't whine around when this nation
falls into financial destruction.
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