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Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
The North Korean Tangle
by Austin Bay
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President Barack Obama's new administration confronts a complex tangle in East Asia -- a tangle exacerbated by interlinked economies, economic decline and a paranoid tyrant working an extortion racket. Sorting through the tangle will require very smart diplomacy -- diplomacy that includes pursuing Bush administration initiatives and accepting the utility of missile defense.

The tangle's thorniest clump remains North Korea, that starving, Stalinist and heavily armed hereditary tyranny run by Kim Jong-Il, the paranoid tyrant and racketeer.

Kim presides over a criminal state and an economic disaster. Exporting missile technology to thugocracies like Iran earns Kim some hard cash. Rumors circulate that North Korean embassies occasionally sell heroin in order to pay their bills. Counterfeiting U.S. currency is another source of income that keeps Kim in caviar.

North Korea's major export, however, is the threat of war magnified by potential nuclear holocaust. It's an international version of an alley bully's extortion game. Pay me off, the punk waving the pistol says, or I'll burn down your store. The analogy, however, only goes so far. North Korea's Kim waves a nuclear weapon, and if he uses it, he kills himself.

Linked economies in a global recession already vex the Obama administration. The destruction of productive global hubs like Tokyo and Seoul would produce a depression. One of the largest employers in the Texas county I call home is headquartered in Seoul. An attack on Seoul is thus an attack on the Texas economy. Kim's extortion gambit targets this economic, political and technological linkage.

The Bush administration put in place a long-term diplomatic "python" strategy designed to squeeze the nuke from Kim while avoiding thermonuclear immolation and economic havoc. The "six nation" forum, consisting of the United States, Japan, Russia, China, and South and North Korea, has produced mixed results.

The North Koreans did destroy part of a key nuclear facility. The December 2008 six-nation meeting, however, broke up when North Korea refused to sign a nuclear verification protocol -- an act interpreted by many as a decision by Kim to wait and see if the Obama administration would drop this essential requirement. The Bush administration always backed its carrots with the implicit stick of military reprisal.

North Korea's threat to shoot down South Korean civilian airliners and its plan to test a new long-range missile (couched as a satellite launch) follow the extortion script. The bellicose threats and display of weaponry are a probe of the Obama administration's commitment to allies and its willingness to protect American interests.

North Korea has actually handed the Obama administration an opportunity to stand strong. U.S. and South Korea forces have quietly continued to conduct annual military exercises, which send the important signal that the United States is prepared to back up South Korea in the event of a North Korean attack. That's good.

Japan, however, has exhibited the most spine. After North Korea announced a new missile test, Japan's defense ministry began deploying Aegis destroyers equipped with U.S.-made anti-missile missiles (anti-ballistic missiles) in the Sea of Japan. A spokesman for Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force said that its defense guidelines permit the interception of any missile (even one allegedly carrying a communications satellite) if it "appears likely" to land in Japanese territory, including territorial waters.

The Japanese remember the 1998 North Korean missile test that "bracketed" their country. They are tired of the extortion racket, which is why they have invested in missile defense. The Obama administration should applaud Japan's decision to demonstrate its defensive capabilities. Of course, this amounts to an acknowledgement by Obama that missile defense makes sense diplomatically and militarily.

The Obama administration needs to continue the six-nation talks. Bush's "python" strategy required the steady cooperation of China. Beijing may be angling for economic assurances that economic protectionists in the United States will resist. China has no interest in a war on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea and the United States are two of China's major trading partners. However, China also wants to make certain the United States doesn't erect trade barriers. President Obama says, "Buy American." China says, "Keep shelf space for Chinese goods." Access to the U.S. market is vital to China. Chinese help in squeezing North Korea is vital.

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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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©Creators Syndicate
Thank you
for this excellent analysis.

This is an important issue for several reasons, among them the fact that other "bullying" nations will be closely watching how the Obama administration conducts itself here.

I'm so ronery

We should have dropped a couple dozen Daisy Cutters on Pyongyang in 1998 after North Korea launched the missiles over Japan.

But instead slick willy sent Madeline Albright over with a basketball autographed by Michael Jordon.

So what will obambi do if the PRNK launches missiles towards the states? Probably send him some DVD's.


ARE YOU MAD AS HELL ?
YOU ARE NOT ALONE......groups are forming all over the US in every city.

1. View this video

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6732659166933078950

2. Then get this book (Amazon ?) and read "THE 5000 YEAR LEAP" ...(it is in short supply) and you will begin to understand what we are about to lose.

3. Then join one of Glenn Beck's "WE SURROUND THEM" groups ( forming up all over the country) and help us save our Republic before it is too late.

Follow these links to understand how this works............ you can start a group in your area or town to view the unveiling of Glenn's program this Friday or record it (Tivo- DVR) and watch it later. This may be our last chance to save America from Socialism and save our Republic.....PLEASE GET INVOLVED BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.

http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/21018 /

http://wesurroundthemmap.com/

http://www.meetup.com/We-Surround-Them-in-Fort-Worth/


4. And then for a little light reading......Ayn Rand's "ATLAS SHRUGGED" and learn who John Galt is (you will be hearing more about him).

All this should bring you up to speed and you can begin to help us save our country.

Corndog--I
"We should have dropped a couple dozen Daisy Cutters on Pyongyang in 1998 after North Korea launched the missiles over Japan."

Yes and then the DPRK would have done as it has promised and launched its "rain of steel" on Seoul. Care to examine how close the ROK capital is to the DPRK border? It is well within range of its guns--that would basically have destroyed the ROK economy and thrown Northeast Asia still in the grips of what could have been called a depression even deeper into an economic decline.

Even with the Taedong-2, the DPRK can't hit anywhere in the lower 48 and even hitting Alaska or Hawai'i assumes much on the DPRK that they could actually get it to its target and get all stages to fire. In 1998, the Taidong-1 failed to get its 3rd stage to fire and it crashed into the ocean and the 2007 test of the Taedong-2 also failed to get the 3rd stage to light.

The Clinton deal was actually to a large degree successful. The alternative was Korean War II and that would have been a far worse outcome.

The DPRK is concerned with one thing--the survival of the regime. It is weak and knows it is weak. In 1950, the DPRK had a large population and most of the industry in Korea. Today, it is as poor as Haiti and the ROK one of the largest economies on earth. It is paranoid that the ROK (with the US and Japan) will try to do to it what it tried to do to the DPRK. It sees the wargames as a cover for an invasion (which is how the DPRK invaded the ROK on June 25, 1950) and this makes the regime even more paranoid than usual as as someone that has listened to Radio North Korea, it is a VERY PARANOID regime.

Corndog--II
The trick is having a soft landed for the end of the DPRK--this includes economic development so when unification does happen the ROK and the yes the US and Japan won't have to start from zero. Before 1990 when Germany was reunited there was much support for unification in the ROK ASAP, once they saw the cost involved to rebuild the former GDR they backed off on that idea. The DPRK makes the GDR look like a member of the G7. If it failed now it would be very expensive and take decades and decades to rebuild and then there is the danger of the DPRK simply wanting to go out in a blaze of glory by dropping a Taedong 1 into a US military base in Japan--the DPRK can do that task very easily.

Highlander
The US does a good deal of bullying itself.

Akagi

In 1998 we were a hyper power with no one to challenge us. Russia was a shell of its former Soviet Union self. The Chinese hadn't had time to implement the secrets Klinton had sold them for campaign donations. And North Korea's nuke program was a joke. We could have taken out their infrastructure leaving their missile program a useless bunch of ground targets. Yeah it would have been bloody when a million man army attempted to cross the border, but it would have been over in short order (provided the libtards let the military actually fight the war). Then we wouldn't be dealing with that little paranoid dipshite today.

I know you'll disagree with my sentiments, but when someone throws a punch at me I don't decide to bake him a cake. I'm gonna take the MF out and with extreme malice.

Corndog
"The Chinese hadn't had time to implement the secrets Klinton had sold them for campaign donations."

Are you just making things up? Is there any proof, hard proof, of your accusations?

North Korean Tart
North Korea doesn’t need missiles that can reach the United States to hurt the United States economic interest all that tart has to do is take out the U.S. plants in China.

Maybe this Marxists tart in N. Korea can help the U.S. middle class after all.

No Escaping The Marxist
The U.S. Manufacturers have run away from one group of Marxist in the U.S. Congress only to find another Marist Tart next door to China.

How funny is that?

Kim Jong-Il
The U.S. working classes only hope to keep the U.S. Jobs from leaving to relocate in Asia.

Pirate Rob
"The U.S. Manufacturers have run away from one group of Marxist."

Good point, did you know that the Speaker of the House was a Republican for 12 of the past 14 years?

Kim Jong Il
A flaming pump wearing Marxist is the middle classes only hope for capitalism in the United States?

Homo Marxist
Saves America from it's self.

I don't give a rats A$$ what party of screw ups
are responsible for this I'm pulling for that pump wearing midget in N. Korean.

Corndog
A few things. First off, there is no proof that Clinton sold the Chinese military secrets. What Clinton did do was transfer export controls from State who were more interested in national security to DOC which was more interested in US business concerns. American-based multinationals like Rockwell and Hughes pushed hard to get the export controls shifted and they were successful. Once in China, their security was lax--people falling asleep guarding sensitive technology, people sleeping with Chinese who turned out to be agents of their intelligence organizations and on and on. There is no doubt China was able to miniterize its missiles for its SSBNs (094 class)based on US technology, but there is doubt where that technology came from. Many seem now to think the Chinese simply got the information from public domain sources--the US is bad about putting pretty sensitive stuff out there for the public to see and people with the time and expertise which people working for the PLAN would have could get enough information from the public domain to accomplish this task.

There is also the question of pro-Chinese (or simply greedy) Americans working for the US government spying for China and transfering the technology. But Clinton selling secrets to China? No evidence and didn't happen.

As for the DPRK, yes, you could have followed your advice, but now there would be millions dead and Asia still reeling from the economic effects not to mention perhaps a repeat of October 1950 with China deciding to once again stop the reckless Americans.

Instead, you have Korea and NE Asia at peace and relatively prosperous and little chance that the DPRK is going to turn Seoul into rubble.

Rob
Since China is the chief source for fuel and food for the DPRK and its only real link to the outside world and one of its few friends, attacking say Pudong or Xiamen or Shenzhen or Guangzhou would not be all that bright. Remember the DPRK's goal is survival and attacking China would not accomplish that goal.

Will You All Get Real
Obama isn't going to attack anybody. The plan is to gut the military and use the money to rebuild the welfare apparatus at home. The stimulus bill already wiped away the welfare reform that Clinton signed into law.

The military has to be pulled back in order to create the vacuum that nature abhors. It's already started with the Chinese playing chicken with our ships in international waters. North Korea will get in on the act and then Iran and probably that boob down in Venezuela. Obama sees America as the problem in the world and will invite attack on us.

What else would you expect of someone that wants to make nice with the Taliban?

North Korea
The situation is simple. The solution is complex and perhaps unobtainable. North Korea is a dictatorship (not an ideology) dependent on its imperial guard and the stupidity of western nations to provide for needed resources when its populace is struggling to survive. Every time there is saber-rattling, we supply food and fuel for the imperial guard protecting its dictator and if a little bit is left over for the common man, then the benevolent leader is praised for his charity. We need to continue to undermine the leadership in North Korea as surreptitiously as possible in hopes eventually the dictatorship will be overthrown. In the interim, we need to infiltrate the population (no easy task due to the police state)with the purpose of eventual sabotage of military installations and assassination of their political and military infrastructure. At least we have the South Koreans who can mingle with the north's population to do this. If a war does come, we would be at least in the forefront of winning it swiftly. Evil regimes (yes, evil) such as this will always require force if they are to be eliminated.
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