Townhall.com, Where Your Opinion Counts
Talk Radio:   Bill Bennett   Mike Gallagher   Dennis Prager   Michael Medved   Hugh Hewitt   
BREAKING NEWS  LeftArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican   RightArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican  
Columns, funnies & more in your inbox!
  • Check the boxes and send us your email address to receveive your free newsletter
  • Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
  • Townhall.com’s weekly inside scoop on what’s happening behind the scenes in the world of politics. When news breaks, we report.
  • Signup to receive the latest daily Townhall cartoons
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
Challenges of the Muslim World: Oil, Testosterone and War
by Austin Bay
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
Poll
Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


Oil and unemployed testosterone don't mix, they collide -- with war the likely result.

"Economics and demographics" lack the sizzle of oil and testosterone, which as eye-grabbers are an Oprah-notch below money and sex. But in the grand sense of geo-strategy and the intricate 21st century problems that produce wars, poverty and other forms of sustained misery, economics and demographics are the fire.

Anyone looking for instant soundbites won't find them in William Cooper and Piyu Yue's "Challenges of the Muslim World, Present, Future, and Past" (Elsevier, 2008). Cooper is an economist at the University of Texas. A spry 94 years old, he's comfortable with detailed history as well as voluminous data. Yue works at the University of Texas' IC2 Institute.

The book is not a political polemic -- it is penetrating scholarship addressing persistent, fundamental structural issues that defy polemics. It analyzes problems that disregard America's four-year presidential election cycle and utterly defy the power of any theoretical popular two-term president whose party enjoys overwhelming congressional majorities.

Caesar divided Gaul into three parts. Cooper and Yue divide the Muslim world's challenges into three categories: oil, testosterone and war. OK, I'm synthesizing. The authors' three are: Consumption, Production and Location of Oil and Natural Gas; Demographic Changes and Social Instability; and History and the Contemporary Scene.

The authors have the communicator's knack many statisticians lack -- the ability to produce charts and figures that turn complex data bits and algorithmic contortions into dynamic pictures that explain. One such chart explains why gasoline prices in the United States have climbed roughly 70 percent since Cooper created the "World Energy Consumption by Economies, 1970-2025" in 2006.

The chart is "oil agnostic" -- it considers energy demands in quadrillion BTUs. In 1970, the world required 300 quadrillion BTUs; make it 645 quadrillion for 2025. The percentage consumed by "mature economies" (like the United States) declines from 65 percent to 42 percent. "Emerging economies" (China) rise from 16 percent to 46 percent. If the numbers boggle, slap your wallet and examine them again.

No matter how much energy any nation conserves, no matter how quickly anyone develops alternative energy sources, the data shows oil and natural gas will power the world economy through the first half of the century (and probably beyond).

The predominantly Muslim Middle East's vast oil reserves mean what happens in these Muslim lands matters and will continue to matter. The authors write, "A peaceful and stable Muslim world is key to stable and growing oil markets."

However, demographic change and economic development (or lack of it) impact "world peace and prosperity." We move to sex -- growing populations and the deadly "bifurcation" between the modern and the Muslim world: "The Muslim world seems unable to improve the standard of living for the majority of its populations even with the enormous wealth generated by precious energy resources."

More mouths to feed and more minds to educate are developmental pressures, but Cooper and Yue also analyze in detail the "troublesome cohort of male youngsters in ages from 15 to 29," arguing this helps "understand why some populations behave more violently or manifest disturbances in certain time periods."

Unemployed young men are easy prey for autocrats and theocrats using "historical grievances" (several 800 years old) to deflect blame for current circumstances. Cooper and Yue, after considering history and ideology in light of "demographic transformations and economic interconnections" conclude "the Muslim world is now at a critical inflection point," where it can either "join global communities for peace and prosperity" or "continue fighting" with itself and the rest of the world as its demographic and economic problems mount.

Put this book at the top of Barack Obama and John McCain's summer reading list.

Share:
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
Be the first to read Austin Bay's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.

©Creators Syndicate

News Articles On This Topic
 

Similar problems elsewhere
It is my understanding that Communist China has a problem with their young and predominately male population as well.

Young male human beings have natural desires that - if not met through dating and marriage - result in a violent society. The Middle East deals with this problem by having temporary marriages or by recruiting terrorists and militants. The Chinese are beginning to see problems of youth violence and disrespect. It will be interesting to see how they deal with the problems that are coming.

No Hope
The Muslim culture is so mired in the past I see little hope of a quantum leap into the present. The sooner we can wean ourselves from depending upon fossil fuel the better. Our presence in their countries serves to remind them of things they will never have. Their hatred is not based upon religion. They hate us because they are jealous and frustrated by our acceptance and use of science and technology. All of which must be imported from the west.

how did we get to this point anyway?
I have just begun reading Michael Scheuer's "Marching Toward Hell", where he argues ALL U.S. administrations since the 1973 Saudi-inspired oil boycott of the U.S., have led us to this sad state of affairs.

Specifically, he says that 1973 Arab oil boycott should have been a wake-up call, demanding we pursue an aggressive policy to wean ourselves from dependence upon this(or any other)region of the world.

That dependence upon mideast oil, plus what Scheuer argues is our indiscriminate support of Israel, have subordinated our national interest, placing it at the whim of regimes openly hostile to Israel even as we continue to view Israel's existence to be interwoven with ours.

Crosspurposes and conflicted, comes to mind.

I'd like to see us freed of both concerns, mideast oil, and Israel.

Scheuer argues it is not in our national interest to support Israel at all costs.

I think he may be right, and I am sure charges of anti-semitism will be lodged my way.

No matter.

On Bay's article, it would not matter what the challenges to the Muslim world were, if we had the foresight to wean ourselves off of the resource so much of that world controls.

And if we had had the judgment not to equate Israel's existence with our own.

It is an interesting book, and it does dovetail into Bay's piece...namely how we now must relate to a Muslim world that our own policies have now made us so dependent upon.

Nuclear Power
We need a nuclear reactor every 50 miles in the United States. The political price for not being independent from the Middle East is simply too high. So what if ethanol production is an energy hog we simply cannot afford to not go forward with all forms of energy.

Or we can go 19th century on the moslems and invade and take the oil.

Male youngsters 15 to 29
If polygamy is allowed, and rich old codgers buy their wives, What is a society to do with poor males 15 - 29?

China has a similar problem because traditionally, the oldest son is responsible for support of aging parents. With a one-child policy, only a son is wanted. Where do they find wives; and even if they did, what woman wants to marry a first son?

Cooper's and Yue's book
It's amazing that Mr. Cooper can be 94 years old and still so blind to the truth about Muslims. His religion of humanism has blinded him. The problem is not a high male population or not being satisfied with lack of jobs and sex. Many of the Islamic terrorists are married, have families, some are rich and yet they slowly saw off heads of people with a hand knife. Thinking they're doing God a favor. The problem is all about Islam and what it teaches. Muslims don't have the same view as Jews and Christians.

What's Arabic for "macho"?
I have a vid shot by a 'net buddy in Kuwait named Sayeed (NOT the guy from Oceanic 815). In it he is letting his friends shoot a huge caliber rifle called the .585 T-Rex. So called because the designer read Jurassic Park too many times and cobbled up a wildcat cartridge that probably could drop a large carnosaur.

The thing kicks like TWO mules! The guys all lost their headgear and one was thrown backward through a plate glass wall!! THAT idiot still got up and tried again. "No one's gonna shoot a big gun like that more times than ME!" seems to be his only thought.

THIS is macho and testosterone taken to a toxic level. Add to that fundementalist Islam, a generation or two of anti-Western and anti-Jewish indoctrination and you can see how we got here. The mullahs are indeed mad. Throwing high octane racing fuel on an open fire is NOT my idea of progress.

-Ray
NRA Life Member

A Start
We have made a start in transforming the Middle East. That is why I shall vote for McCain. He will fight it out on this front if it takes all century.

Now we need to make a start on the domestic front. Decontrol all energy production in the USA and begin by guaranteeing more than adequate revenue to those who produce oil and gas etc.

And recognize that which enables our survival will also keep Israel in existence. Israel is supportive of the idea of maintaining the USA as a free and independent federal republic.
When those other countries behave as well, we shall treat them as nicely as we treat Israel.
Until then, they will not have an Uncle Sam, they will have an Uncle Billy instead.

Last but far from least: a sustainable victory over there is going to require less government over here. Now there is an opportunity that qualifies as a gift from God. Try not to blow it.

Awesome article!
Very thoughtful and timely -- I'm ordering that book right away.

And what an insightful dichotomy of choice -- continue fighting or take the path of peace and prosperity.

We're not walking away from the "war on terror" until we've come to grips with exactly these issues: energy and machismo.

Sylvia
You're right about the individual, active terrorists; they mostly come from middle to upper class families and are educated.

However, the vast "army" of unemployed, unmarried young men in the Moslem world are the street crowd and rear echelon troops who provide the moral support to the actual terrorists. Much in the same way that the "poor" and underprivileged in the US provide the leading liberals with a cause celebre.

Furthermore, the mullahs stir up the passions of the street crowds, those unemployed young men for their political purposes. If it were not for this underclass, the terrorists would have little or no political and moral support for their endeavours.

Gender ratios in the Arab/Muslim world
Let me add one more data point to the argument you're presenting here.

In much of the Islamic/Arab world the ratio of women to men is less than 1. This is particularly true in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States.
(I'd add that it suggests a high level of infanticide, given that the ratio is even lower the China's.)

http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/gender/gratio.html

Another way of looking at this is that 72 virgins in the next life looks rather attractive when one's chances of getting a single one in this life are diminished.

Islam
preaches isolationism, promotion of relations would loosen the control of the islamic leadership.
Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
*
State:
*
Zip:
*
Phone:
      
Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
(Bi-Weekly) We highlight the best opportunities from our partners for surveys, action items and more.