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Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
Petreaus' Anaconda
by Austin Bay
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It's a shame Sen. Carl Levin failed to take the time to call public attention to Gen. David Petraeus' "Anaconda Strategy" chart. Petraeus briefly referred to the chart during his initial testimony this week before Levin's Senate Armed Services Committee.

The Anaconda Chart is a complex graphic that depicts an intricate, multi-dimensional war. It's tough to describe even with a copy in front of you. However, the strategic concept behind Petraeus' chart (titled "Anaconda Strategy versus al-Qaida in Iraq") is dirt simple: Squeeze and keep squeezing.

A commercial artist would certainly describe the chart as "too busy," but war isn't an exercise in aesthetics. The Anaconda Strategy identifies six routes of attack on al-Qaida in Iraq: 1) Kinetics (which includes combat); 2) Politics (which includes countering ethno-sectarian pressures and Iraqi political reconciliation); 3) Intelligence (operations from air recon to intel assessment); 4) Detainee Ops (which includes counter-insurgency in detention facilities); 5) Non-Kinetics (education, jobs programs); and 6) Interagency.

Anaconda's Interagency is a hodge-podge and a kludge of a category, including diplomacy, information operations and -- an interesting specificity -- engagement with Syria.

On the chart, these six broad routes become operations that converge upon and compress al-Qaida's command and control capabilities, finances, ideological appeal, safe havens, weapons and popular support.

The U.S. military uses the acronym DIME as verbal coin for "the elements of power": Diplomatic, Information, Military and Economic. Petraeus' Anaconda Chart is DIME in big dollars.

Since Petraeus' and Ambassador Ryan Crocker's September 2007 testimony, "the Anaconda" (the incremental synergy of this complex war-fighting and nation-building process) has dramatically squeezed al-Qaida. No, it hasn't crushed it -- but the organization is physically damaged. Moreover, with the "Sunni Awakening" and similar programs, al-Qaida has suffered extraordinary political and information defeats as Sunnis publicly turned on the jihadis.

Is this victory in Iraq? No. But it suggests we've won a major battle with potentially global significance, the kind that in the long term squeezes al-Qaida's ideological appeal in all corners of the planet.

Shia gangs and Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Militia also receive the same multidimensional squeeze. Remember, last week the herd-media quickly declared the Iraqi Army's recent counter-militia operations in Basra, east Baghdad and southern Iraq a huge failure, "the Basra Blunder" according to one headline. Both Petreus and Crocker were pestered with questions about the Iraqi Army's operational mistakes and inadequacies.

Iraqi Sunni Arab and Kurd political reactions to the attacks on the Shia militias has proven to be overwhelmingly positive, however. Iraq has progressed to the point where the political context is the dominant context and a democratic Shia-led government taking down Shia gangs was a step toward national reconciliation among ethno-sectarian groups.

Is this a surprise? Let's go to the chart: Petraeus' Anaconda chart demonstrates that the "political route of attack" can be as lethal as a kinetic (combat) operation -- perhaps more so if the goal is bringing the marginalized and antagonized into a democratic political process. In fact, in Iraq the political context is now the dominant context.

In the case of Basra and east Baghdad, at some point the Iraqi Army had to confront the Shia gangs. No, the fight wasn't perfect, but war is not the realm of perfect. War is the realm of "friction," as Clausewitz wrote, "the suck" in current lingo. The Iraqi Army and Iraqi government planned and executed the operation themselves. Failure? Don't think so. This is progress. As time passes, it is increasingly clear the Iraqi Army did a far better job than the Shia gangsters.

But we all know why the complex chart gets ignored and successes are glasses half empty: A presidential election campaign is on, and the Democratic Party has bet its soul on defeat.

"Hear no progress in Iraq, see no progress in Iraq, but most of all speak of no progress in Iraq." Thus Sen. Joe Lieberman, a member of the Armed Service Committee, deftly summed the last two years of Democratic Party posturing as well as the Democrats' talking points in the latest hearings.

Lieberman's maverick pal, Senator and Republican presidential nominee John McCain, spoke more bluntly, "Congress should not choose to lose in Iraq, but we should choose to succeed."

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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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©Creators Syndicate
So when can we leave Iraq?
OK, the chart listed the following six areas:

1) Kinetics
2) Politics ethno-sectarian pressures and Iraqi
3) Intelligence (operations
4) Detainee Ops
5) Non-Kinetics
6) Interagency

So what remains to be accomplished in each of these six areas, so that once it is accomplished, we can declare "SUCCESS" and withdraw our troops from Iraq, with honor and pride?

Instead of endless reassurances about "we're winning," all focused on the past, why don't you commit to telling us EXACTLY what else needs to be accomplished in Iraq in the immediate future, so that we can truly declare the war to be over for us?

We know from history what V-J Day--victory over Japan in 1945--looked like. Tell us what V-I Day--victory in Iraq--will look like.

SteveL - Good questions
--
Pass 'em along to Col. Bay directly. His professional Web site is:

http://www.austinbay.net/


In the meanwhile, for a link to the charts used by Gen. Petraeus in his briefing, see:

http://tinyurl.com/63wvh7


One of the problems with undeclared wars is that there's no designated enemy national command entity (NCE) from which to wring a surrender.

Damned untidy.

But, then, insisting that Congress actually declare war before sending U.S. troops into combat against a foreign nation (as the Constitution requires) would make me a Ron Paul supporter, and we all know that Ron Paul *MUST* be dismissed as a "kook."

--


Defining Success in Iraq
The Left always asks how do we define success in Iraq so we can come home. Then they are told the answer but thinks it makes better press to keep asking the question as if there is no answer.

Success is (and has been since the capture of Saddam H)defined as a secure Iraqi Gov and Military that can control their borders and maintain a stable and secure democratic society without being a safe haven for terrorists.

So we cant set a date deadline. We can't quit early.

The chart shows how we execute the strategy across a broad spectrum of operations. It is not a "road map" or "time table". It is not as simple as a list of small steps that when completed mean we are finished.

We fight the enemy using Kinetics Strikes. Its not a matter of 7 more or 700 more strikes and we will be done it is just Kinetic strikes are one of the tools we use.

Political measures such as instuting the Sons of Iraq program and reconcilliation meetings with tribal councils are on going. It is just one more process that we use until such a time that the Iraqi Gov is free and her security forces can stablize the country.

Same with the other 4 areas. They are tools we use as means to an end. They are not the end in and of itself.

Tinsldr2@yahoo.com

in the longrun, the surge is destructive
The idea of placing our troops within Sunni neighborhoods in Anbar(getting involved in civil affairs)rather than behind military fortresses, and paying Sunni tribal leaders and tribesmen to target Iraq's small contingent of Al Qaida forces, has had a benefit.

Al Qaida overplayed its hand. It had declared it intended to set up an Islamic Republic of Iraq(with it being in charge, of course). Trouble is, it neglected to consult with local Sunnis on the matter.

And they did not take too kindly to that.

Something about distaste for foreigners...something they also demonstrate in regard to us.

But the larger question is worrisome.

The whole point of what we've been doing in Iraq is predicated upon some national consensus occurring between Sunnis and Shias, between the national government and the tribes.

But the surge undermines that.

WE, not the Maliki government, are paying these Sunnis, "buying", or more likely "renting" their tribal allegiance for a period of time.

We are enabling these Sunnis to one day attack the national government. Sunnis still think they ought to run the nation. That has not changed.

The surge is counterproductive from the standpoint of a policy of encouraging Sunni reconcilation with the Shia based national government, but it does provide the administration with some temporary relief.





Moot Debate
The Democrats are professional, political parasites who care only about their position of power and nothing about the security of our Republic. PERIOD!

Boutte
Gee - you don't believe Petraeus or that Iraq is "winnable". (See Tinsldr2's excellent definition of "success").

What a surprise.

SteveL writes:
'So what remains to be accomplished in each of these six areas, so that once it is accomplished, we can declare "SUCCESS" and withdraw our troops from Iraq, with honor and pride?'

The answer is written in the wind. But the short answer is we will stay until we have secured the region for benefit of our major international globalist corporations. Free trade uber alles.

This war is not about freedom as it is much more about commerce. After all when we hear about a new bombing it invariably involves the market place not the military base. Terrorism suppresses commerce and our globalist corporations profit margins suffer.

Definition of Success
The definition of success is based on conditions, not time.

The definition of success on a past war is easy, but at the time it was based on successful conditions.

People who want a timetable want to know when they can complain when we did not drop our weapons on the ground, turn tail to go home, and start spending on the citizens who do not want to build success in their own lives.

Success in Iraq may mean overcoming active jihadis, a-Qaeda, Iran fighters, and gang thugs. All these are killing our troops. And, not because we are there, but because they can and they hate us and want control.

US and its allies helping the Iraq government gain control and not to individuals and individual groups. Winning is adding success to a world syngery of the population. These people may help solve salvery, human rights, sarving citizens, illiteracy, alternate energy, etc.

Freedom will spread because freedom feels good.

Rules of Engagement Have Changed
There are those that have demanded of our leaders, 'when is the war over?' or 'when can we declare victory?'

They do not understand the paradigm shift in modern terrorism warfare or the savage history of Muslim extremism.

Wake up.

This war is not like any other war in modern history. It will never BE over. The Muslim extremists will not stop, will not quit, and will not go away. Either; (1) They will defeat the US and western allies and impose Sharia on the world. (2) They will be defeated by the US and western allies.

There will be no compromise on their part. To believe anthing else is postponing the inevitable.

David
Boston

Worthless liberals
You know the liberal morons in this country amaze me. Are we fighting this war the same way that we fought WWII? As I recall, if you were a citizen inside Japan, Germany, Italy, you were the enemy, every man, woman, and child. We killed them all with extreme prejudice, there were no smart bombs, or a focus on only military sites. The allied nations bombed and bombed, and shot, whomever, that did not surrender. But because of the gutless yellow, liberal cowards in the country now, we have to fight a more politically correct war. What a joke. Quick history, first Gulf war, the U.N. asks the US to get Saddam out of Kuwait, but nothing other than that. US agrees with the stipulation that Saddam will be stripped of Offensive weapons, and no more weapons development, to keep the region safe. U.N. agrees, Saddam after getting his butt handed to him agrees to let U.N. inspectors in. Fast forward 9/11 U.S. attacked by terrorist, October/November 2001, intelligence agencies globally say S.H. has WMD, and he is looking to deal with terrorist, U.S. goes to U.N. says no more screwing around, let the inspectors in, S.H. thumbs his nose, U.N. while making backdoor deals with S.H. keeps adding resolutions. Bush administration rightly invades Iraq. No WMD found. S.H. General states WMD moved out of Iraq to Syria on commercial planes. End of story liberal scumbags. As our elected President George Bush had an obligation to protect the citizens of the U.S.A. it was an obligation he took far more seriously than Slick Willy. I admire this President he has balls and backbone unlike his predecessor.

Deacon
I am a little perplexed by your post. When you say:

You give the impression you dislike why the war is being fought. Then you write:
"This war is not about freedom as it is much more about commerce. After all when we hear about a new bombing it invariably involves the market place not the military base."

I do agree this war is partially about free commerce but, shouldn't people be FREE to go shopping for food or whatever without fear being blown up along with their families? Also the market places you are talking about in Iraq are made up mainly of small local entrepreneurs. Should they be blown up as well? Are you saying it is ok to blow up large corporations and their customers?

The terrorists actions don't reduce our freedoms when they blow up our Super Markets, thereby limiting our choices and movements out of fear?

My being free to shop and spend my hard earned money the way I feel is not really freedom?

Levin failed in other ways
He lamented the failure of the Iraq government to accomplish all its benchmarks. Being a Michigander, I support Rush Limbaugh's question as to whether or not Levin is as interested in setting benchmarks for government in the failing state of Michigan!!!!

Deacon
Sorry Deacon my 1st post should read.

You give the impression you dislike why the war is being fought when you say:
"This war is not about freedom as it is much more about commerce. After all when we hear about a new bombing it invariably involves the market place not the military base."

I do agree this war is partially about free commerce but, shouldn't people be FREE to go shopping for food or whatever without fear being blown up along with their families? Also the market places you are talking about in Iraq are made up mainly of small local entrepreneurs. Should they be blown up as well? Are you saying it is ok to blow up large corporations and their customers?

The terrorists actions don't reduce our freedoms when they blow up our Super Markets, thereby limiting our choices and movements out of fear?

My being free to shop and spend my hard earned money the way I feel is not really freedom?

A self-fulfilling prophecy
People want nice, neat, tidy conclusions to problems. Many judge war in this way. The war on terrorism is a global war. Iraq is just a battlefield in that war. The Israelis have been fighting for 60 years, what makes you think we can "win" in 6 years?

America is really not ready for this conflict. That is because we have not come to terms with how long this will last. People on this planet have always found an excuse why not to like someone. Too often someone else is blamed for your problem. If you think I am agreeing with you that America is the problem, you're wrong.

Nothing that will ever happen in Iraq will satisfy a liberal. Nothing. They don't want it to be successful, it is that simple.

Tibby

Tibby
Whatever the conflict in Iraq may have been, it is now a classic civil war, one in which we have taken sides. The problem is that Iran long ago recognized it for the civil war it always was, and hedged their bets by backing all of the involved.

Many reference criminal gangs and Iranian influence. Every top Shiite official spent the decades preceeding the occupation living in Tehran on the Iranian dole. The Badr Brigade, the lead force in the Basra offensive was created, funded, armed, and trained by the Quds force. The BB took advantage of the 'surge' to engage in murder and ethnic cleansing. Their nickname among the Sunnis is the 'Drillers' because for preference for electric drills as a torture device. They are also the umbrella group for the oil smuggling groups in the south.

Even if Maliki prevails in the fall elections, the result will be more of government strongly tied to Iran, ethnic cleansing, and oil smuggling.

That's success?

The Ignorance of Jerabuabs post
There were three of the 5 surge Brigade Combat Teams (BCT) from 3rd Infantry Division. These BCTs along with the 3ID HQ are focused on south and south central Iraq and deal with a mostly Shia population.

Where Jerabaub writes about paying the Sunnis. What he is talking about is the "Sons of Iraq" (SOI) program. Gen P has mentioned it several times in his briefing and talked about how in Caches found alone the SOI have paid for themselves.

The point Jerabaub fails to understand is that the SOI is not jut a Sunni thing. In fact there are more Shia SOI then Sunni.

We use money as a “munition” but the theory is that once these people are working that the money will start flowing in the economy and a lifestyle will emerge that they will hesitate to disrupt with violence. (and a point is always stressed to get them off the SOI payroll and into local jobs) .

The Army here and the Surge is much more then just combat troops on the ground. It is the opening of Fish Farms and markets. It is getting the locals to turn over weapons Caches. It is getting the Iraqi Army to take the Lead.

I was one of the early surge forces to arrive in Iraq. I deployed 14 months after my last deployment here. I left home on 12 March 07. I return home in about 50 days. I will be REALLY happy to leave this country and get home to my wife, my son, and do some real fishing. But when I step off that airplane, and breath the saltwater and pine tree smell of Savannah GA, and I see the American Flags waving in the hands of the Vets from the VFW that will be there, I will know that I did my job and that I contributed to the ultimate success of the mission that we are working towards. The only way we lose is if we quit. Then I will know that cowards back home and self serving politicians did what the enemy can not and defeat us.

The point I am trying to make...
Knight Who Said NI

is freedom for the sake of freedom without commerce is almost pointless from the capitalistic point of view. Commerce has always brought different cultures together as they traded goods. The exercise of trade has caused different cultures to develop an understanding of each other and even acceptance of each other.

The radical element of Islam does not want to develop acceptance for the material values of today's commerce. For me the destruction of the twin towers on 9/11 was a symbolic attack on commerce and thus an attack on the free interaction of our culture and their culture.

To complete my thought major corporations are international by design. They are not 'loyal' to a given nation and desire to be able to move and trade without governmental or cultural interference. Business is always looking to exploit a market that has money and a need for material goods. Given the flood of money going to the oil rich nations it stands to reason that corporations would want to have a presence in that market. Our Agricultural corporations have maneuvered to require Iraq farmers to buy their seed from them and this was enforced by our military and the new Iraq government. No longer will the farmers be allowed to save back seed to make the next crop. This would not have happened if we had not become involved with Iraq.

Are there more examples of corporations getting lucrative markets because of this war? Probably but I am not in a position to dig up the evidence. Would be a good job for an old fashioned journalist.

The force of commerce interacting with or desiring to interact with a market will find a way to deal with interference. The use of government (i.e. Force) is an option.

Illegal war?
Liberals and Ron Paul assert only congress has the power to declare war and anything short of that is illegal so would you liberals please clarify something for me. Which do you support, setting on our hands and letting terrorists attack us freely hoping we can somehow control the mayhem through the civilian law enforcement agencies or congress declaring war on every nation who's nationals have been found to engage in terrorist activities against the US? Both ways would be legal and acceptable by your own professed standards so clarify which you would prefer.

Hey Tinsdlr2
I enjoyed reading your posts the other day.

Tinsldr
With all due respect, you did not address my point that our paying Sunnis makes them beholden tu us, not the national government in Iraq.

You did not address the point that it is not the Maliki government to whom these Sunni tribesmen show allegiance.

These tribesmen are beholden and loyal to Sunni warlord...not the national government.

I thought the whole purpose of our efforts there was to wean Iraqis away from allegiance to tribes, and toward the national government.

I realize you may be reluctant to criticize this war, given your participation in it.

I understand that. I respect your service to our nation.

If calling my post ignorant is your way of dismissing it, fine.

But my point still stands.

Unless and until the Sunnis in Iraq come to accept the Shia national government as legitimate, I don't see much hope for reconcilation.

And the problem with the Maliki government is not restricted to the Sunnis.

As Al-Sadr demonstrates.

I think
the liberal, progressive, nincompoops who voted for the war resolution before they were against it would have had a more difficult time investing
in defeat if the Constitution had been followed as written. Resolutions are nothing more than
the cowards way out, it gives them wiggle room because it's just lip service. Instead by not
following the Constitutional mandate they empowered the antiwar leeches such as Code Pink to push their ugly propaganda against our people in the military and this country. I realize this is an unconventional war, not against nations but a motley gang of thugs spread around the world. However, if there were an official declaration of war, would the terror supporting
nations be more inclined not to harbor or help them knowing that they would be held accountable
and could possibly bear the full weight and might of our military? Instead, this specious
resolution has been the weapon of choice by
the useful idiots in and out of government to
sabotage this battle, and previous wars. I'm
not a Ron Paul supporter but he's got a lot of
good points regarding how we have strayed from our Constitution. One thing we have to do is insist that we return to it and not allow it to
have a life of its own on the whim of a black robed foreign law traitor.

To SteveL
SteveL:
we can only know what victory in Iraq will look like when it happens you moron. Can't predict the future yet even though TV says we can. You watch too much garbage on TV. Get a life.

Pete Hegseth, Executive Director of

Vets for Freedom said, “We’re here to tell Congress not to micromanage the war from air conditioned offices on Capitol Hill,”

It it beyond hubris for any one on Congress to presume to second guess Gen. Petraeus, or any vet.

And, that pretty much goes for the lunatic left and Code Pink!



So when can we leave Iraq? How do you define "win?"

It's all been spelled out...CLEARLY, and COUNTLESS TIMES.

What part of that do they NOT UNDERSTAND???



Petraeus
Last year, General Petraeus wisely declined to promise a military solution to the utter lack of political consolidation in the “Iraqi” government.

He is a man in uniform constrained by the “policy” he was told to implement.

I am reasonably confident he knows that no "deal" of any kind can be made among the warring parties in Iraq that will bring stability and order, even temporarily.

The fact that Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds desire their own countries has been linked to a "failure" of our troops. And it is White House and government rhetoric used to emphasize this linkage that is the problem.

We can't promise the people of "Iraq" a constitutional democracy or a life free from violence. That promise should not continue to be layed at the doorstep of General Petraeus.


Childish liberal thinking: SteveL
“…why don't you commit to telling us EXACTLY what else needs to be accomplished in Iraq in the immediate future, so that we can truly declare the war to be over for us?”

Maybe Petraeus could go ask the various terrorists and anti-gov’t forces in Iraq exactly when they plan to stop causing trouble. He could simply explain that the liberals back home would like an exact schedule so they can put stickers on their calendars. Don’t know why he didn’t think of that sooner.

What kind of an idiot doesn’t understand that we’re dealing with a very dynamic situation in Iraq? You sound like the kids in the backseat on a cross-country trip demanding to know the exact minute we’ll arrive at our destination. Grow up.

Robert - Please
You know what Robert, I have to imagine that you have had a pretty decent life as you seem to own a computer. You though like most Americans think that wars can be won on your schedule. The reality is, had the U.S. wanted we could have just picked city after city and killed everyone, and then kept asking the Iraqis, "Do you want us to stop now"? Sorry that the war isn't going on the timetable that you think it should be. This President what he had too. If S.H. had let the inspectors move freely throughout the country as agreed upon after the first gulf war, we would not be in there now.

Tribal Allegiance in Arab World
Jerabaub and others,
The point of paying the SOI is NOT to “wean Iraqis away from allegiance to tribes, and toward the national government. “

Tribal allegiance in Iraq, a in much of the Arab world will always take precedence over the national Gov (at least always as in the foreseeable future). It is just the way people here live and it I totally foreign concept to Americans.

The tribal affiliation is much deeper then the Shia-Sunni-Kurd identification. There are tribes and sub tribe and many of the tribal leaders and councils can be as few as a few hundred people to thousands of people. These tribal leaders or Sheiks do not have complete control but along with the Clerics are Key Leaders here. For example the SOI get paid for from the Tribal Leaders and the Tribe leaders get paid from us.

The SOI has several fold point as I partially explained. By getting them on our side they turn in lot of Caches, help us at checkpoints control violence, and identify those who do violence against us.

But just as important is the money that they get and inject into the economy. These are people that have no money since long before the 03 invasion. By getting them employment they now want to spend their money. This in turn means they want safe markets. Then the market owners want to spend money and hire people. In a market sense we are “priming the pump”. The idea behind it is that once these people are making money and developing a lifestyle they will be less likely to give up that existence and blow themselves up or sacrifice their life in attacks. By buying peace they will ensure that the central gov has time to continue making improvement and stabilize.
Bottom line here is that just because the PRIMARY allegiance is to a tribe, that doesn’t preclude a further allegiance to the national Gov. Winning the allegiance of the Sheiks away from extremists such as AQI (in Sunni areas) or Iranian agitators in Shia areas is just one part of the strategy here.

Anne
So when can we leave Iraq? How do you define "win?"

It's all been spelled out...CLEARLY, and COUNTLESS TIMES.

What part of that do they NOT UNDERSTAND???


Could you give a summary. Apparently I missed it.

CW
"Maybe Petraeus could go ask the various terrorists and anti-gov’t forces in Iraq exactly when they plan to stop causing trouble."


It is NOT the government versus the insurgency. It is components within the government that represent the warring factions.

The government is at war with itself.

Almost without exception when anybody ever talks about "counter-insugency" they wish to ignore this central point.

Tinsldr2
We did NOT get the SOI on our side.

We bribed them.

They do NOT have any loyalty to us or the shiite government we created.

And bribe money has a diminishing rate of return. Every additional dollar of bribe money offers them less and less tactical advantage in their war against the shiite government we created.


Smithington: You have GOT to be kidding!


Even you can't be that dumb that you can't look it up..

Oooops, sorry, maybe you are!

Take a few minutes and read what Tinsldr2 has posted.






How's this for an idea
The Comptroller in Iraq has recently announced a large budget surplus. I think we should pressure Maliki to use the surplus to fund the Awakening Councils. This would be a concrete display of willingliess to incorporate the Sunnis as well as assuming more of the fiscal burden.

Also we should take advantage of Maliki's current position to press for a very public purge of corruption among high ranking officials in DAWA and SCII.

I think this could go a long way towards strengthening the US backed gov't in the fall elections.

Anne
Can you summarize or can't you?

Apparenlty not.

When you make a statement that "victory" has been clearly defined, you have created a situation where you ought to be able to provide a summary on your own.

bryce writes:"I think we should pressure

Maliki to use the surplus to fund the Awakening Councils."

Gee bryce, I bet Petraeus would LOVE to hear your idea. You should probably send an email to Petraeus and Amb. Crocker with your idea.

I bet they'll both be in shock, and say, "Man, why didn't WE think of that??"



Bryce
Have a cigar.

Your 11:58 post is an example of flawless thinking.

Excellent recommendation to the Maliki government.

Anne
I didn't think you could do it.

Anne
You can't be serious.

I am sure Petraeus realizes the problems in a Shia dominated Maliki government subsidizing its Sunni insurgent bitter foes.

The point Bryce was making was it would extend an olive branch from the Shia government to the Sunnis.

Is that not what the U.S. wants for Iraq? Bush always blathers on about the need for reconcilation.

National reconciliation.

I think such a gesture on the part of the Maliki government would demonstrate its seriousness toward the goal of national reconciliation.

It would then place the ball in the Sunni Iraqi's court.

They would be obliged to agree...because with money comes some control.

I think it is a great idea.

We would then see if the parties are serious.

why doesn't the military ACT on its word
So if the military said allowing Iraqi civilians to have handguns for self-protection is GOOD- when will the military start handing them out (loaning or selling them) to civilians???? Everyone knows there is a shortage of the best home defensive weapon (handguns) by Iraqi civilians.

This appeared in the news 6/1/03.
------------------------------

AFTER THE WAR: BAGHDAD; Iraqi Civilians Allowed To By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
Published: June 1, 2003
In a significant retreat in American efforts to seize weapons held by Iraqi citizens, American and British officials said today that Iraqis would be allowed to keep AK-47 assault rifles in their homes and businesses.




Today's developments highlighted the contradictory demands of restoring security in Iraq. On the one hand, American officials are urgently trying to restore law and order by building police forces and banning weapons. At the same time, law-abiding Iraqis are vociferously complaining that they need to defend their homes and businesses. Potentially undermining all these security efforts is the specter of former high-ranking Baathists who may be seeking to destabilize the country.


The directive, however, did allow ordinary Iraqis to retain some light arms, including pistols, rifles and shotguns.


Maliki's attack on 'criminals'
Began weeks ago yet no force has been used againgst the criminal elements within his own party who are responsible for running death squads through the Ministry of Interior and who control the smuggling networks in the south.

I have no doubt these issues are being discussed in private. But behind the scenes discussions hardly carry the weight of public displays. Administation need to publicly press Maliki on specific changes we'd like to see in exchange for our considerable investment.

Think people. When the deadline for elections was announced the entire dynamic changed. We need to concentrate more of our efforts on the politics, and giving Iraqi voters, particularly in the south, a reason to reinstate the Maliki government.

UNDERVALUING OVERSIGHT
In your column you quote John McCain as saying, "Congress should not choose to lose in Iraq, but we should choose to succeed."


Since when is Oversight viewed as courting defeat? Had such Congressional Oversight been employed in 2003 perhaps the debacle that is now Iraq could have been avoided or at least might have resulted in far fewer casualties and a successful conclusion, so that five years after hostilities began we would not be mired in an endless war once considered a slam dunk.

Certainly if an extensive analysis comparable to yesterday's indepth presentation by Gen. Petraeus had been employed BEFORE Pres. Bush marched us off to war under the direction of the woefully inadequate Donald "Golly Gee!" Rumsfeld, there is no question the Iraq War would have had better results.

But as it is, no matter how often Sen. McCain and his hawkfriend Joe Lieberman talk about a "successful surge," they cannot obcure the fact that the "surge" became necessary because, as Sen. McCain has said many times, the Iraq War was "terribly mismanaged" by Rumsfeld, whom Pres. Bush stood by for four years even as casualties mounted by the hour.

Smithington writes: "Anne, I didn't

think you could do it."

THAT, smithington, is the oldest and dumbest lunatic liberal bait in the book...

If you don't know it by now, chances are pretty good that you're either way too stupid to understand, OR you're just too stupid and lazy to look up the answer to your inane question.

Or, maybe both!

Anyone asking that question now should be embarrassed!!!






Smithington
Count down 4 posts on this thread since you missed ALL the other times Success was defined.

how many SOI have you talked to to make your assesment that the SOI are not on our side? Their Casualty figures are higher then ours. They are tired of the sensless killing the AQI and others are doing in their local communities. They started unpaid as the concerned local citizens (CLC) and the program morphed into where it is now.

Money is a "munition". Money can do things in Iraq that bullet can't.
Is the payment you get for your job a "Bribe"? Do you do dangerous work because you enjoy it? Should a Philadelphia PA police officer arrest people without pay? Why Shouldn't they get paid for the job they do.

In his testimony Gen Petreaus stated that the cost of the SOI is less then the cost of damaged vehicles and not to mention my brothers lives saved. You call this a bribe, I call it money well spent.

The SOI program is a huge success and will continue to change and grow. It is an important part of the Surge Strategy.

Tinsldr2@yahoo.com

Careful there Smithington, Tinsldr2 is

in Iraq NOW and has been there for some time.

Just a little guess here, but I'm thinking that Tinsldr2 KNOWS a LOT more about what's going on in the ME than you do.




Smithington
“It is NOT the government versus the insurgency. It is components within the government that represent the warring factions.”

It’s both. There is an insurgency – with no legitimate power – trying to disrupt the legitimate government through violence so as to force the country into the direction it wants to go. There are also factions within the government that are at odds with each other, but they are not ‘warring’ in the sense of having officially declared war against each other.

Tinsldr2
Money for a job is not a bribe.

Money to pay people who have no loyalty to us or the Shiite government that we created so that they will not shoot at us is.

The historical record holds no example where stable states were created by diffusing weapons to local and regional groups. On the contrary, it has led to civil war, chaos, and sometimes the disappearance of states.



Tinsldr2
There’s a pretty big difference between ensuring a functioning government that does not support Al Qaeda, and creating a mature stable constitutional democracy among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds who have an ingrained clan structure, have no history of private property rights, no history of economic reform, and judiciaries that use Sharia law.

It took feudal Europe hundreds of years to form politically consolidated nation-states.

It took 800 years for stability to be achieved along the English-Scottish border.

If you have actually been in Iraq, then you know that there is NO such thing as an "Iraqi" army of Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites who will follow the Prime Minister's orders to take on any and all militias.


Tinsldr2: ol' smithington ISN'T going

to GET IT because he either too stupid to GET IT, or he doesn't WANT to GET IT!

Typical limited liberal!!!!



CW
"It’s both."

The number of foreign fighters compared to the insurgency is tiny.

They are taking advantage of instability already created by a non-functioning government.

To give them credit for the civil war is to give the enemy a free propaganda victory.

Anne
Conservatives have known for decades that the fundamental building blocks of a constitutional democracy are property rights and economic reforms.

Those institution lead to elections. Elections have never led to those institutions.

You can tote whatever line you want to, but to call yourself a conservative and me a liberal shows no understanding of the two terms.

Tinsdlr2 on money as a munition
Why shouldn't the Iraqi gov't be using some of its' budget surplus to provide such 'munitions' for its' own protection?

A better question
In light of the Iraqis' budget surplus, why shouldn't we publicly INSIST that they use those funds for the Awakening Councils?

CW
JAM is the second largest political block in the Parliment. How do they fit into your reasoning?

Smithington: Okay. Whatever floats

your boat....


No Longer a Republican Smithington
There is alot of confusion out there on the issues of republicans and conservatism.

There is scarcely anything similar between the two. And nothing in common between traditional conservatism and G.W. Bush.

Bush's socalled "republican" and presumably "conservative" foreign policy has more in common with the early 20th century liberal Democrat Woodrow Wilson in its naive approach to foreign affairs.

As Wilson declared we must make the "world safe for democracy", so Bush declares we must make the "mideast safe for democracy".

Wilson's support of Versailles Treaty strictures helped to bring about the conditions that led to WW2, although he sincerely believed he was acting in a judicious manner at the time.

Despite the "reasons" Bush cited for invading Iraq, the underlying rationale was this goal of a democratic Iraq being a beacon for all the mideast to emulate...to vitiate the appeal of Islamic extremism.

It was believed democracy would be an antidote to extremism.

But that view never took into account the nature and history of Islam.

I may be wrong, but I believe this administratin displayed unconscionable and unforgivable ignorance on the nature of Islam generally, and on the impact Saddam's demise would have on Iraq specifically.

Smithington
“The number of foreign fighters compared to the insurgency is tiny.”

Insurgency: ‘A condition of revolt AGAINST A GOVERNMENT that is less than an organized revolution and that is not recognized as belligerency.’ (per Websters)

Your own use of the word ‘insurgency’ is counter to your argument that it is an intra-government conflict.

CW I repeat
JAM is the second largest block in the Iraqi Parliment, how do fit into your reasoning.

Smithington
“They are taking advantage of instability already created by a non-functioning government.”

I don’t know that the gov’t of Iraq is entirely non-functioning, but to the extent that it is ill-functioning this is a chicken and egg type situation. The newly formed, multi-factioned gov’t has naturally created instability, and the instability has made it difficult for the gov’t to function effectively. Looks to me like Gen. Petreaus’ 6-point plan addresses this.

Must be something to it
The "surge" must be more of a success than is even being reported when so many "liberal" critics find it necessary to try to preach their doom and gloom reaction and prognosis on an essentially conservative site.

Dan: HA! I think you must be right!!!

But they flock here to do it all the time.

Nothing new! :-)





Multi-ethnic iraqi army
That Tinsldr2 guy is a genius. Except he forgot his password so he is trying to use this account while he smokes a Vegas 5 "A" cigar.

In response to Smithingtons assertion, "If you have actually been in Iraq, then you know that there is NO such thing as an "Iraqi" army of Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites who will follow the Prime Minister's orders to take on any and all militias."


In my 2005 tour I might have agreed with you. it is totally different on this trip. They had made great strides when i got here in march of 07 and incredible progress has been made in the last year. Email my tinsldr2@yahoo.com account and I will send pics of me with Iraqi troops in the morning, if you doubt my bonafides. Or check my blog and that should remove doubt.

See http://www.taskforcemarne.com as a source of news. That is direct reporting from people on the battlefield

SharkFighter2: Be careful...if Tinsldr2

IS home now, it's only been in the past month or two...

Not good to jump to conclusion. :-)


Somewhat off-topic
but what is it that Levin did not want to understand in yesterday's interrogations about "we can't set a precise time table".

I wonder how much Levin charges to haunt a cave.

Woody from Iowa

Dim mindset for last two years?
"Hear no progress in Iraq, see no progress in Iraq, but most of all speak of no progress in Iraq." Thus Sen. Joe Lieberman, a member of the Armed Service Committee, deftly summed the last two years of Democratic Party posturing as well as the Democrats' talking points in the latest hearings.

How about when the screamer Dr. Demento started this strategy 5 years ago along with anti-American cohorts of celebrity nitwits led by fatman Moore.

Yes, jerebaub
Saddam's rape rooms, nuclear physicists, oil money for suicide bombers, et al would be much preferable than the destruction of Al Queada when it raises it's ugly head. You guys kill me. I don't care if they elect every nitwit in Iraq to some office as long as they know Americans will destroy any terrorist they support no matter where they are. After all you dims have done that for 50 years.

Functional Iraqi Gov
The Iraqi Government has passed more new laws and accomplished more in the last year then our Gov in Washington did and they did it under tougher conditions. They are FAR from where they need to be.

No one with common sense denies that they need a lot of improvement. I am far from an expert on the gov side of the house. But i know what improvement looks like and they are improving.

And CW is spot on with his comments. The inurgency aim is to undermine the democratic process not the result of it. But time will tell and I am optimistic.

Tinsldr2@yahoo.com and Vegas 5 'A" are darn good cigars for the money!

Anne
I am tinsldr you got an email from my mil account about care packages and my initals are RL

I am on wireless at my room and I usually post from another computer.


Ex-president
Hey, can you write a column called "Bill's Anaconda"? Har HAR

Signed

W.J. Clinton

indyconantidem
I agree it was great to remove Saddam.

But I trust that was not the sole reason for invading Iraq.

There are other nations in the world where atrocities are happening...such as Sudan(Darfur), or, a few years back Rwanda.

I hope you are enot saying we should send in our military, shed our blood, in dealing with atrocities there, or in other nations.

Look, It was good to remove Saddam, even if no wmd were found.

I just think after 5 years, thousands of dead and wounded, about a trillion dollars of monies expended, the Iraqis ought to be getting it together.

We should not have to erect barriers and barricades, sealing off Sunni from Shia neighborhoods.

And anyway, at the end of the day I hope we have accomplished more than overseeing the replacement of a government run by a Sunni secular thug with a government of Shia fundamentalists aligned with Iran.

By the way I am not a liberal. I voted for G.W. both times.

During the past two years, I have undergone an epiphany. I no longer am a Republican. G.W. Bush has cured me of that affliction. But I am not a democrat either. Democrats are too far to the left for me. I am now an independent.

SharkFighter2: Fooled me... I was

sticking up for you... Thought someone was questioning you.. Can't have THAT!!!!


Don't know if I got that email...


Let me know how you're doing....



Real reporting
Anyone who thinks Petraeus, Ryan, Lieberman, Ollie North or the like will give an objective assessment of Iraq is kidding themself.

Patrick Cockburn is widely considered to be one of the most knowledgeable, independent voices on Iraq. From the last chapter of his latest book:

The al-Sadr family has an extraordinary record of resistance to Saddam Hussein, for which they paid a heavy price. One of the gravest errors in Iraq by the United States was to try to marginalize Muqtada and his movement. Had he been part of the political process from the beginning, the chances of creating a peaceful, prosperous Iraq would have been greater.

In any real accommodation between Shia and Sunni, the Sadrists must play a central role. Muqtada probably represented his constituency of millions of poor Shia better than anybody else could have done. But he never wholly controlled his own movement, and never created as well-disciplined a force as Hezbollah in Lebanon. None of his ambitions for reconciliation with the Sunni could take wing unless the Mehdi Army ceased to be identified with death squads and sectarian cleansing.

The war in Iraq has gone on longer than World War I and, while violence diminished in the second half of 2007, nothing has been resolved. The differences between Shia and Sunni, the disputes within the respective communities, and the antagonism against the U.S. occupation are all as great as ever. The only way the Sadrists and the Mehdi Army could create confidence among the Sunni that Muqtada meant what he said when he called for unity, would be for them to be taken back voluntarily into the areas in Baghdad and elsewhere from which they have been driven. But there is no sign of this happening. The disintegration of Iraq has probably gone too far for the country to exist as anything more than a loose federation.


Tinsldr2 and jerabaub points
Both make some points worth considering. I think Tinsldr2 is expounding COIN 101, which is appropriate. I wish more posters would carefully consider what he writes, instead of getting into fruitless arguments over "victory" and "success".

But the impression I get from jerabaub (and I may be misstating, if so sorry in advance) the problem is how do we get from the local improvements that Tinsldr2 is advocating (and participating in) to transfer into an allegiance to the state? I'm thinking in terms of Van Creveld's "Rise and Decline of the State" and other ideas that states are becoming less relevant. If these ideas have any truth, then it seems to bode poorly for creating the necessary allegiance to a national Iraqi government. I guess Tinsldr2 would be in a better place to comment on this problem.

Patrick Cockburn.. writes for

The Independent... a British paper...

Not exactly pro-American !

No, Mr. Bay, the Surge & Petraeus policy
is to keep us in Iraq by cutting american deaths, not to get us out of Iraq.

I did not expect Petraeus to reoommend troops to come home, and he won't six months from now or a year from now if McCain gets elected.

UNDERVALUING OVERSIGHT
Dear Mr. Bay:

In your column you quote John McCain as saying, "Congress should not choose to lose in Iraq, but we should choose to succeed."


Since when is Oversight viewed as courting defeat? Had such Congressional Oversight been employed in 2003 perhaps the debacle that is now Iraq could have been avoided or at least might have resulted in far fewer casualties and a successful conclusion, so that five years after hostilities began we would not be mired in an endless war once considered a slam dunk.

Certainly if an extensive analysis comparable to yesterday's indepth presentation by Gen. Petraeus had been employed BEFORE Pres. Bush marched us off to war under the direction of the woefully inadequate Donald "Golly Gee!" Rumsfeld, there is no question the Iraq War would have had better results.

But as it is, no matter how often Sen. McCain and his hawkfriend Joe Lieberman talk about a "successful surge," they cannot obcure the fact that the "surge" became necessary because, as Sen. McCain has said many times, the Iraq War was "terribly mismanaged" by Rumsfeld, whom Pres. Bush stood by for four years even as casualties mounted by the hour.

nmi
Before you take the popular course of criticizing Rumsfeld I suggest you learn the difference between"mass" and "economy of force".

The lean force alwas finds it comparatively easy to add muscle. The overly large/equipped force finds it virtually impossible to shed the useless.

If you will pay attention to McCain's criticism of Rumsfeld you will notice that it pertained to a lack of comprehensive strategy, not the failure to commit 300,000 to 400,000 to occupation duty.

Settling on Gneral Petraeus and letting him develop/implement strategy enventually met with Rumsfeld approval and Gates has continued along the same lines.

This is in STARK contrast to what had to be done in the wake of one former SecDef who opposed William Westmoreland's atempts at error correction let alone the efforts of his (miracle working) successor Creighton Abrams. Get your brain in gear before putting your mouth in motion.

McCain vs. Rumsfeld
For Olpatch Mercenary:

In one of the Republican Candidates' debates, which I taped, NBC's Tim Russert asks the candidates if the Iraq War was worth the price in lives and treasure."

John McCain replies, as he has on many occasions that the War in Iraq was a good idea but that it was mismanaged for four years by Rumsfeld.

Mitt Romney states that after initial success, the war was "misrmanaged. underprepared. underplanned and understaffed."

On March 20, 2008, Town Hall columnist Cliff May wrote that "One can say the occupation of Iraq was bungled." ..."The result of so many errors and misjudgments (by Rumsfeld et al) was catastrophic."

To NMI
Just because the bulk of politicians say the Iraq war was 'mis-managed' does not necessarily mean that the statement is true.
I have yet to read a blog in this column - or from the war critics in general that offers any real strategic, tactical or logistical improvement upon the current situation.

David
Boston
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