Fatah's gratefully dead Great Leader, Yasser Arafat, left a bitter legacy of missed opportunities. Three years ago I wrote that Arafat's biggest mistake was his rejection of the summer 2000 peace deal engineered by Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Bill Clinton. I still think that's the case. The Barak-Clinton deal would have given the Palestinians a Palestine, and Arafat the state that could have transformed him from state-less killer to statesman.

Any deal would have ignited an internecine Palestinian war between Palestinian secularists and Islamists, but instead of waging that necessary civil war with the support of the United States and Israel, Arafat chose renewed intifada. Arafat gambled that "internationalizing" the issue of Palestinian statehood might result in a "better deal." It did not.

During his presidency, Arafat allegedly stole a billion dollars, filched from aid scams and rackets. His played classic the "Strong Man's Game": l'etat c'est moi. That stunted Palestinian political development.

Today the civil war between the secularists and Islamists is raging anyway.

At the moment it is a fettered sort of civil war, with Hamas and Fatah security men fighting gang-like battles complete with street executions and rampage captured on television. Several commentators have suggested the latest Gaza shootouts (which Hamas won) were a preview of Iraq following a precipitate coalition military withdrawal. It is that, but in the larger picture it is also a sad reminder of the consequences of tyrannical rule by force.

Hamas has several advantages over Fatah. Iran and Syria have provided funds and weapons, giving it a tactical military advantage. Compared to Fatah, Hamas is far less corrupt, which is a political advantage. Fatah, however, may have the strategic advantage of offering an economically prosperous and physically secure future, a real-world future rather than Hamas' apocalyptic Islamism.

American, European, Israeli and now Egyptian support means extraordinary political and financial assets. Israeli intelligence cooperation certainly gives Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas' rump Palestinian government a leg up in stabilizing the West Bank, which Fatah still controls. Given the levels of assistance Abbas can expect, within two years the West Bank could prosper. Hamastan (Gaza) would slide in Islamist misery.

To seize the opportunity, Fatah must transition from a corrupt collection of local oligarchs to focused nation builders. Is it likely? If they don't they face either execution by Hamas death squads, or permanent exile.