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Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
Exploiting Al-Qaida's Weaknesses
by Austin Bay
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In February 2004, Iraqi and coalition intelligence intercepted a message to al-Qaida's "senior leaders." Written by al-Qaida's Iraqi commander, the now-deceased Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the letter outlined al-Qaida's last ditch "surge" plan for defeating democracy in Iraq and avoiding what it saw as a looming, devastating defeat for its totalitarian theology.

Zarqawi's letter lamented al-Qaida's "failure to enlist support" in Iraq and "to scare the Americans into leaving." After Iraqis run their own government, Zarqawi wrote, "the sons of this land will be the authority. ... This is the democracy. We will have no pretexts."

Fearing an American and Iraqi strategic victory (creating a democracy defending itself against terrorists), Zarqawi saw only one strategic option: exploit Iraq's Shia-Sunni religious divide by slaughtering Iraqi Shia civilians. The Shia would respond to al-Qaida's terror attacks by igniting a "sectarian war." He believed the religious war would "rally the Sunni Arabs" to al-Qaida. This war against Shiites, he wrote, "must start soon -- at "zero hour" -- before the Americans hand over sovereignty to the Iraqis."

The February 2006 attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra brought Iraq to the precipice of Zarqawi's sectarian war, but even that failed to produce the apocalyptic schism al-Qaida desired. Credit Iraq's people and its new government with not buckling in 2006, as Shia-Sunni strife escalated.

This week, Reuters reported an Iraqi government claim that Zarqawi's successor, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, had died in a battle with "Sunni Arab insurgent groups over al-Qaida's indiscriminate killing of civilians and its imposition of an austere brand of Islam in the areas where it holds sway." At the moment, that report remains unconfirmed. However, for the last 24 months, conflict between al-Qaida and Iraqi Sunnis has become more open and deadly.

The coalition and the Iraqi government have tried to exploit divisions within the terrorist groups. Al-Qaida's method of exploitation is mass murder of civilians. The Iraqi government employs incorporative politics.

This is tactical and operational exploitation, and though its successes are incremental, they are still successes. However, defeating al-Qaida's totalitarian ideology requires a strategic approach, as well. At the moment, the poisoned minds in Washington won't admit it, but the democracy project in Iraq is part of that strategic approach. Zarqawi understood that democracy robs the terrorists of their breeding grounds.

Al-Qaida presents an ideological challenge. Understanding al-Qaida's origins is essential to understanding its appeal and how to defeat it. Continued...

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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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To those living in 'the state of denial"
5 recommendations, and not one of them involved giving AL Qaeda the guerilla war it wants,and fighting that war on just the terms it prefers.

There is no way to overcome the REALITY that the U.S. is an army of occupation in Iraq, and in Afghanistan. As such, it can have no credibility with the population of those countries, or with Islam in general, when it "attacks the message", or the messengers.

Continuing the present strategy (or absence of one) will only allow the ideological conflict to spread, and ignite into violence elsewhere. If you think Iraq is tough, how about fighting in Pakistan, or even worse, Indonesia? If the U.S. can't afford (borrowing is NOT paying, consumers!) the fight in Iraq, how will it pay for those battles as well?

Work smarter, not harder. George Bush thinks we should be impressed by "hard work", on the contrary I am not impressed at all by an idiot trying to build a tunnel by slamming his balls repeatedly against the side of a mountain. It is "hard work" alright, but it is not going to accomplish anything.

He is "working hard" in Afghanistan, and getting a record poppy crop and a resurgent Taliban.

He is "working hard" in New Orleans, and getting a rising crime rate and no improvement in the levee system.

He is "working hard" in Iraq and getting rising body counts and and a population fleeing for the exits - 50,000 a month leaving the country, and 4 years later the infrastructure is still not as good as it was in 2001.

He is "working hard" on immigration "reform' and so far his only supporters on that are Democrats who would rather impeach him.

He is "working hard" on the economy, and all he has to show for it is a disappearing manufacturing base and the incredible shrinking dollar. Just inflation adjust the Dow against gold, silver, corn, nickel, the euro, oil - just about any REAL thing - and you will see it has spent the last 6 years CRASHING, not rising at all.

It is time to stop working hard, and start thinking hard.

Still trolling for an answer to...
For all of the "let's get out now" folks:

Assume we pull out of Iraq, regardless of the situation on the ground, at some date certain in the very near future (before the end of the year.)

What do you honestly believe will happen next? What do you think will happen in Iraq, what do you think will happen in the surrounding countries, and what do you think will happen in the United States?

Try to imagine things at least 2 years out.

Then please tell me what you have read or learned in history that supports your opinion.

Magnificus,

I think you are absolutely right. I don't think most of these folks have ever read a history book. There are parallels to be drawn to Somalia, Vietnam, World War II, the Palestine Mandate, the Barbary Pirates, Rome and the Visigoths, etc., etc. ad nauseam. I don't see any indication of awareness of this.
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