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Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
Steyn's "America Alone"
by Austin Bay
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Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


If demography is destiny, then news of America's decline is (like Mark Twain's death) decidedly premature.

Statisticians tell us Oct. 17 (at 7:46 a.m. EDT, according to the Census Bureau's estimate) was the day America's population reached, then surpassed, 300 million people. That's a three followed by eight zeroes.

Unfortunately, Oct. 17 was Halloween with an extra "Boo" (B with two zeroes) for various "greens" and ecological radicals mired in Malthusian desperation and myths of looming disaster.

For decades, the doomsayers have been predicting catastrophe wrought by the "population explosion" and diminishing resources.

Author and columnist Mark Steyn notes in his new book, "America Alone" (Regnery Publishing), "The end of the world's nighness isn't something you'd want to set your watch by. "

Steyn provides a collection of the dire predictions made by "Chicken Little's eminent successors."

Steyn's list includes:

-- 1968, in "The Population Bomb," distinguished scientist Paul Ehrlich declared, "In the 1970s the world will undergo famines -- hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death."

-- 1972, in "The Limits to Growth," the Club of Rome announced that the world would run out of gold by 1981, of mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and gas by 1993.

-- 1976, Lowell Ponte published a huge bestseller called "The Cooling: Has the New Ice Age Already Begun? Can We Survive?"

-- 1977, Jimmy Carter confidently predicted that "we could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade."

"None of these things occurred," Steyn writes. "Contrary to the doom-mongers' predictions, millions didn't starve."

Steyn, however, isn't against gloomy prognostications, per se. In fact, "America Alone" is a doom book of a peculiar sort -- it's insistently witty and trenchantly written. Both are achievements, given the core subject matter: American demographic success and vitality (fecundity, folks) compared to the demographic decline of other democracies and modern, industrialized nations.

Steyn is an arch "Euro-pessimist," who backs his pessimism with numbers.

Europeans are reproducing below the "replacement rate" -- thus the average age of their populations is increasing sharply. If current trends continue, by 2050 one in three Germans and Italians will be over 65 years old. In the United States, only one in five will be so gray.

As a result, the Europe of the European Union (Steyn disdainfully calls it "Eutopia") faces economic decline and risks systemic change. Steyn writes: "Tax revenues that support the ever growing numbers of the elderly and retired have to be paid by equally growing numbers of the young and working. The design flaw of the radically secularist Eutopia is that it depend on a religious-society birth rate."

Japan faces the same "gray threat." Even China has a birthrate below the demographic replacement rate. Among the modern industrial nations, only the United States (and possibly India) has the knack for reproduction.

The United States also grows through immigration that includes political and cultural integration.

Europe's Muslims, however, are multiplying -- but they are not integrating culturally. Steyn argues that if European nations fail to culturally integrate Muslims, Europe faces profound political changes.

"As fertility dries up," he writes, "so do societies. Demography is the most obvious symptom of civilizational exhaustion, and the clearest indicator of where we're headed."

Islam cannot enjoy "political sovereignty" in Europe. Steyn adds: "Those lefties who bemoan what America is doing to provoke 'the Muslim world' would go bananas if any Western politician started referring to 'the Christian world.' When such sensitive guardians of the separation of church and state endorse the first formulation but not the second, they implicitly accept that Islam has a political sovereignty, too."

America remains an exception among democracies, Steyn concludes. America's population climbs at a healthy rate, and America politically and culturally integrates immigrants.

At least part of America remains an exception. "Demographic trends," Steyn observes, cheekily, "suggest that the blue state ought to apply for honorary membership in the EU; in the 2004 election, the Bush-voting states had fertility rates 12 percent higher than Kerry-voting states. Barring a sudden change in electoral fortunes, Democrats are going to be even more depressed at their 2010 and 2020 reapportionments."

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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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©Creators Syndicate
At Least the Mexicans
share our Judeo-Christian culture and values overall. Europe has a real problem on its hands as the Muslims share no common values, and are impossible to integrate. As the number of Europeans declines due to a low birthrate, the muslim population grows in overall proportion due to immigration, and an astronomical birthrate. If you want a huge number of offspring, having multiple wives that do as they are told is a very effective method. The muslims will become a political majority in Europe in our lifetimes.

Froganistan
Good one Gunny!

More to the point
As an article in "Wired" magazine pointed out two years ago, several regions are either approaching or have already reached the "break-even" point in population replacement, i.e. their birth rates are below the death rate. The United States will, other than immigration, reach this point about 2018, according to them. The MidEast will reach it by 2012, except for Israel, which will do so no earlier than 2030. Japan is already there, and Red China is very close. Most European countries passed the "break point" in the 1990s. Most of Africa will reach the same point in the next two decades. SouthAmerica, overall, seems to be reasonably stable at a roughly 1:1 birth/death ratio, and has been there since the late 1980s. The only region showing consistent growth, oddly enough, is South Asia, indicating that now that Vietnam, etc., have basically jettisoned Communism in all but name, their economies may be more robust than they appear. However, the Islamic populations of East Asia seem to be following the downward trend of those in the Mideast. The other big winner in the population sweepstakes seems to be India, which is very close to the 1:1 ratio at this time.
If population is destiny, the future may not be as rosy for, say, Islam, as we've been told. In fact, the world of the mid-to-late 21st Century may look much more like that described in the "cyberpunk" SF literature of the 1990s. This might very well be "The Pacific Century".

cheers

eon

Equality
Steyn. Always worth reading. Am I being obvious? I'd have his baby, if I had a uterus. I'm reading *America Alone* (no, not this very moment -- you're so literal), and haven't gotten yet to the part where he explains in detail why a shrinking population in itself is so bad. He's implied that no one will be left to support the old folks. But old folks do know how to talk care of themselves, even if the nanny state folds. The real problem, as I see it, is that the overall population of Europe is not shrinking -- just the civilized part. There is a fecund Third World element, that more than makes up for the sterility of the fairer races. Even that isn't bad, except that this Third World element brings the Third World with them.

The Turks live in an anciently Christian land. They have no meaningful interest in its archeology or its history. Anything pre-Koran is unclean. Well la-dee-da. But contemporary Europe is pre-Koran, and its culture will not be honored. Rather, replaced, by bag-wearing females and wives-beating males. Even gay marriage would be better than that. But the choice is not ours.

So Paris is still gripped in largely unreported Moslem riots/violence. So what? I was just thinking, the African American population in the States is about the same percentage as the Moslem population in France. Two visibly different minorities, then. But what a difference. For any dysfunction in the black community, we are unspeakably blessed, in America, whatever our ethnicity, in the fact that we have common values. The term is African AMERICAN. In France, the Moslems seem not to be French. Yet another strength, here.

J

Come Again
Bay writes, "The United States also grows through immigration that includes political and cultural integration". Whoa(cue the record scratch in the background)... what remote island has this guy been inhabiting for the last 20 years?!?

Yep...
I'm going back to my urologist and having this vasectomy reversed. Then, I'm cleaning the house all day and after that taking my wife out to a nice dinner, and then after that, God willing, have some marital fun and procreate. My teenagers can help with the new babies.

Red v. Blue - Legal v.Illegal Immigrants
Tanabear writes: "...immigration is raising the cost of living preventing whites from starting families until they are economically secure... Unless immigration is stopped, America's future will be blue."

Two points are raised here and I don't think either one can be blamed on bona-fide, America-loving legal immigrants.

1) Raising the cost of living, is a function of the "nanny state" as Steyn calls our socialist government. Can't blame that on people who want to come here legally to be free to work and live as they please.
2) Here, you're addressing one of the effects of our pervasive ILLEGAL immigration problem (many of whom vote democratic-socialist). This again doesn't apply en masse to our legal immigrants. I've talked and heard so many that love this country and its freedoms. I haven’t seen any hard stats, but I'm sure many if not most vote conservative because they want freedom from government intrusion.

Conservatives need to distinguish between ILLEGAL immigrants (big problem) and legal immigrants who have traditionally been among our most loyal patriots.

integration
Why is integration such an important thing ? If it is all right to replace Europeans and Americans with third world immigrants, I think it should be all right to replace European culture with third-world cultures.
Anyway, I don't want to be replaced, and I won't feel better knowing that my substitutes behave just like me (which they don't).

Cyberpunk
"In fact, the world of the mid-to-late 21st Century may look much more like that described in the "cyberpunk" SF literature of the 1990s."

Hey, I love Cyberpunk! Of course, it was written for/by people who think that food comes from the grocery store and have no real concept of agriculture.

I knew having more kids was a good idea! Have to have people to support us as we get older, dontcha know.

Euro-Realist (Slightly optimistic)
Despite what some people think, Europe will not have a Muslim majority. More people understand the threats than are given credit. Far more. I'd give it 5-10 years tops before people begin to be sent out of Europe. America is a child-friendly society.
People can have families and make it. France and the Netherlands have child growth rates in all ethnic groups because they are child-friendly societies. Germany and Austria are not, but they are both very hostile to childred.

Lady
I like C-Punk, too. Although my favorite version is the old Shadowrun RPG. The combination of HK227s, spell-casting, elves with cyberdecks, orks with mohawks, and dwarf shamans with attitude makes it a lot more entertaining, in a warped and twisted way, than your typical William Gibson story. Of course, my favorite Gibson work is "The Difference Engine", which he co-authored with Bruce Sterling, too.
I'm still waiting for Ares, Inc.(up in Port Clinton, OH, BTW), to come up with a real-life version of the Predator heavy pistol. Come on, guys, it's the 21st Century, already. What's holding things up? (I mean, Ruger already has the Super Warhawk, more or less, with the .480 Ruger DA revolver.)

cheers

eon

Integration of immigrants.
Nah. Immigrants used to integrate. Now, not so much. Most Mexican illegals here in CA now (which outnumber legals) see this not as only as a chance to make money to send back to Mexico, but also to take back California one baby at a time. It's a deep-rooted belief that they are doing right for Mexico. A baby born here (paid for by taxpayers) is not an illegal, and a baby keeps an illegal parent here. They know this. They fly Mexican flags, not American flags. They don't assimilate and integrate. They don't want to learn the language, buy auto insurance, or understand the constitution. They just want tax free cash under the table from Hispanic-owned businesses who they know will employ them illegally, and they want Mexicans in office, period. Legal Mexicans and Cubans are a totally different group however; surprisingly conservative, and they believe in the ideals they came here for, legally. Gotta love em, I sure do, as I also love Asian, Slavic, and European immigrants. The rest? Trouble is brewing here, bigtime.

And blacks, generally, (although not technically "immigrant" of course), overwhelmingly vote entirely along racial lines, as they always have. There's no real cultural integration there, by %, even now, face it. Never was. Rappers' rants and Sharpton's "donkey" are more important than giving the American dream a legitimate try. (Having said that,I work with some black people that have done very very well, and whom I admire greatly as friends, if not absolute heroes and role models.) So if we can't integrate blacks, why do we think we can integrate illegal hispanics? I'm pro-immigration. Immigration is what built us. But immigration without control or oath or belief in American ideals is just suicide via ignorance and stupidity.

How California became a blue state is no mystery. And it's cost of living HAS increased dramatically, as has the cost of doing business. Businesses (legit ones who don't employ illegals) are leaving here in droves. Socialism and its inevitable economic implosion is California's future, and perhaps also the future of the United States of America. Even "communist" China understands that socialism is unsustainable without pro-growth, pro-business economics over all else. Here, socialism means social-policy liberalism inextricably tied to socialist economics. Why do you think that is? It's not so hard to figure out. And it's going to get worse, the numbers grow. The profound political changes Steyn predicts for Europe and it's Muslim population are already happening here with illegal Mexicans in a big way, and will snowball here well before it snowballs in Europe, not that I have any sympathy for "Eutopia" whatsoever.

Immigration is what built us
Pragmacapitalist: "I'm pro-immigration. Immigration is what built us."

What built the USA was European immigration. The current immigration has nothing to do with your immigration history. The same thing is happening in Europe. There used to be a country called Mexico, and another one called the USA. Next, you will have 2 Mexicos, and that's it.

Immigration is what built us
Yes that was the point.

Inflation is caused by big government.
tanabear writes: So we can say that immigrants are responsible for raising the cost of living for Americans.

I would argue that the strongest relationship here and the primary driver of the rising the cost of living in America is our increasing socialist-democratic government. The immigration economic issue is secondary and is a by-product of this.

You're focusing on the symptoms rather than the disease. Sure, as immigrants increase expensive and inflationary hand out programs also increase. But if these "entitlement" programs didn't exist, then rather than inflationary pressure, you would see an increase in Gross National Product because of these hard-working bona-fide legal immigrants.
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