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Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
The aftermath: Hezbollah's looming loss
by Austin Bay
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Israel's and Hezbollah's War of the Rockets has entered a new phase: the War of the Wallets, the race to gain political capital by rebuilding southern Lebanon.

Diplomats and military analysts continue to debate The War of the Rockets. The conventional wisdom -- or more accurately, the wisdom of first impressions -- said Israel lost the military war and Hezbollah won by surviving.

But the emerging "big picture" suggests the War of the Rockets physically punished and politically damaged Hezbollah, despite its media touts of victory.

On the other hand, Israel cannot claim a victory -- at least, not yet.

What did Hezbollah lose? The Israel-Hezbollah war began with Lebanon as a "hijacked nation state." Hezbollah (supported by Iran and Syria) controlled southern Lebanon and Lebanon's southern border, which put the area in a geo-political limbo. Southern Lebanon was not fully sovereign Lebanese territory.

At the moment, Israel exerts more control over Lebanon's southern border than Hezbollah, U.N. peacekeepers or the Lebanese government. That may not be an Israeli win, but it is no victory laurel for Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrullah.

Hezbollah still dominates swaths of southern Lebanon and in those areas retains the ability to intimidate Lebanese locals and fire rockets at various current and potential adversaries -- Israel for sure, but also U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese Army. However, positioning Lebanese government forces and U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon could slowly diminish Hezbollah's military and political capacities.

Yes, peacekeepers could end up protecting Hezbollah. However, if the United Nations' military Rules of Engagement (ROE) are robust, Hezbollah's ability to act will be very circumscribed. The United Nations' 1995 failure to protect Srbrenica, Bosnia, is a huge stain that aggressive policing in south Lebanon would help remove.

If Turkish troops are part of the U.N. contingent, Hezbollah will face even stiffer political and military constraints. Turkey wants to make the case that its confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq is analogous to the one Israel faces with Hezbollah. A Turkish U.N. contingent would be a tough Muslim opponent for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah isn't poised to win The War of the Wallets, either. Using Iranian cash, Hezbollah has bought influence in Lebanon by funding social services. Hezbollah announced it will provide funds to rebuild homes destroyed in the war. Continued...
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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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(4 comments so Far)
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Reply # 1
Date: Aug 30, 2006 - 6:45 PM EST
Terrorist funding
Thinking outside the box I again submit the following as a way to win.

1) Offer the oil cartel $20/bbl for oil, Take it or Leave it. Our offer should be made “out of the blue”, giving them no time to prepare. They will obviously not take it and we will not get their oil. Since we are a major buyer they will soon have their storage facilities full and have to reduce crude production. An immediate reduction in income dollars to the cartel will result.

2) This will also result in a gas shortage in this country, high prices, probable rationing, etc. But it will also bring home to the people that we are in fact at war. At this point many (most) of us are feeling little or no impact of the conflict. Yes, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth, probably on both sides.

But it will also:

a) Severely reduce the funding to the terrorists limiting their ability to buy weapons
b) Demonstrate some guts of our part and willingness to not cave in to the cartel
c) Result in some angst to weapons contractors that lose contracts to terrorists and rogue states that purchase these weapons

But also:
d) Given time result in a lowering of the price of oil and thus our gas prices and boost our and the worlds economic systems
e) Result in a more reasonable price the world pays for oil
f) Severely limit the terrorists arsenal and thus make a safer world
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Reply # 2
Date: Aug 30, 2006 - 5:38 PM EST
Millions for Tribute, not a dime -
for defense?

I think Olmert and Congress need to review American history. Our oldest "foreign enemy" is piracy inflicted by Muslim extremists (do I repeat myself?). If you don't believe me ask Thomas Jefferson.

There was an opportunity for victory in the unprovoked Hezbo attacks on Israel. But, USA cannot dictate policy for Olmert. Israel is a democracy having the right to make mistakes. George Bush and Condoleezza Rice are doing their jobs. The opportunity that was missed was for Israel to kick the snot out of Hezbo. The failure of seizing the moment was Olmert’s failure not Bush’s. If Olmert had finished the Hezbo job, Bush & Rice could then have then helped pressure the known puppet master, Iran.

Also, the Lebanese government has to live up to its billing and govern its territory. If it does not discipline its regional warmongers, then it need not have any consideration other than choice of burial rites, it is an enemy and its people should flee the coming events.

Yeah, sure Hezbo got into some trouble with their Lords and Masters. Where do you think those missiles captured by the Israelis are now aimed?

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