OK, maybe not
everyone's lying to you, but it sure does feel that
way.
You don't have to go far to catch an earful of big-fish
stories and half-baked forecasts coming out of Wall Street,
Washington, and the boob tube.
Witness the
Moody's (NYSE: MCO) spokesperson who said,
"Moody's has strong policies in place to manage potential
conflicts of interest." Yet court documents allege that
"unbeknownst to investors at the time, the rating agencies'
compensation was contingent upon the receipt of desired
ratings ... and only in the event that the transaction closed
with those ratings."
Everyone has some vested interest in coloring his or her
version of the truth. Whether they're padding their pockets,
protecting their reputations, or making headlines, everyone
has a motive. The trick is to separate motives from facts.
While aligning your interests with the truth doesn't
guarantee success, it sure beats chasing down a pack of
lies.
Here are three economic fibs you should disregard.
Lie No. 1: Consumer spending will solve our
problems
While the National Retail Federation may love articles
like
Newsweek's "Stop Saving Now," such commentaries are
reckless attempts to reinflate the consumer credit bubble and
inflate readership. In this particular essay, the author even
labels savers as "hoarders" and encourages businesses "to
roll the dice."
On the contrary, consumers and businesses need to spend
prudently, save frequently, and invest intelligently.
Thankfully, Americans are consuming more intelligently,
bending on brand, and seeking out
Costco 's (NYSE: COST) Kirkland Signature and
Target's (NYSE: TGT) Archer Farms
private-label products.The move toward cheaper goods has left
premium retailers such as
Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFMI) fighting to prove
their bargain bona fides. In short, the overwhelming consumer
trend looks down on spending and gives a thumbs-up to
saving.
Based on data in a recent
New York Timesarticle, consumers have even turned
toward old-school home economics: Coupon redemptions climbed
23% in the first half of this year. Amazingly, the top coupon
users are originating from households earning $70,000 or
more. Little wonder that
BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) accepts
manufacturer coupons and reports a significant increase in
coupon use among its members. Finally, it's hip to clip!
Lie No. 2: Housing will bounce back
Real estate doesn't bounce. Not only is appreciation
dead for now, it may never have existed in the first place.
Dennis Cauchon made that point in a
USA TODAYreport, with data showing that "the average
annual investment return [in real estate] from 1950-2000 was
less than one-half of 1% per year, after adjusting for
inflation."
Housing has two major purposes: a place to live and an
investment. When you buy a home to live in, your goal is to
acquire a dwelling that brings you pleasure, while carrying a
cost of ownership that is competitive with what you would
otherwise pay in rent.
If you buy for investment purposes, you need to perform a
discounted cash flow analysis based on the estimated rental
cash flows. Either way, appreciation should not be part of
the equation.
With unemployment still on the rise, housing inventories
still sky-high, and the pending defaults on "pay option" and
interest-only loans looming, the business models of
homebuilders such as
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and
Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV) will likely
remain impaired for the foreseeable future. Ironically, with
rock-bottom interest rates, one-time tax credits, and falling
prices, there's never been a better time to buy your first
home.
Lie No. 3: (Insert name here) is too big to
fail.
Don't believe the hype; no company is too big to fail.
Even nations are not too big to fail, as demonstrated by the
fall of Rome and the decline of the British Empire. Instead,
these institutions are so globally intertwined that their
failures would cause side effects unbearable to business
leaders and elected officials alike. Thus, there's a
difference between being too big to fail, and being too
importantto fail.
Would Americans have accepted the loss of their life
savings beyond the FDIC threshold? Could the country have
stomached endless lines of irate customers demanding their
deposits from their seemingly safe national bank of
choice?
There's no doubt we could have survived it, but
politicians tend to dislike civil unrest, and business owners
aren't fond of riots. The "too big to fail" travesty seems
like an avoidable consequence of bank centralization. Keep in
mind that between 1984 and 2003, the size of our banking
system declined by almost 48%, as 15,084 entities
consolidated into 7,842. Continued... |