There are three areas of the market that I've been
scouring for undervalued stocks recently: banks, oil, and
small caps. Why these three in particular? Here's my
rationale for each (as well as some specific stock
ideas).
Banks
The banking sector may be the most complex, opaque
market segment. Derivatives, accounting quirks, deleveraging,
and government intervention make this so. As a result, there
is a lot of opportunity out there for those who can parse out
the winners. But just because there is opportunity doesn't
mean it's a good idea to make individual calls in the
sector.
I've written before about the dangers inherent in the
sector.
Bank of America and
Citigroup are popular because they were left
for dead at one point. They've recovered somewhat from a
price standpoint -- leading to multibaggers off the lows --
but they still share the complexity problem with their
stronger peers, including
Wells Fargo ,
Goldman Sachs ,
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and
JPMorgan Chase . All of these banks either
have significant investment banking operations or have
swallowed up a fallen toxic bank.
I see more opportunity in the smaller, simpler banks. I
detailed my thoughts back in Mayand later bought into one
of my research candidates,
Community Bank System .
Oil
I chose oil specifically, rather than the energy sector
as a whole, because I feel more confident in buying into an
oil major like
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) than I do an alternative
energy player like
A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq:
APWR). The gains in alternative energy could indeed be huge,
but similar to the slew of Internet companies in the late
'90s, it's exceedingly difficult to separate the rare
eBay s (Nasdaq: EBAY) from the many
losers.
Even with the alternative energy threats, our dependency
on oil should exist for quite a while. The opportunity for
large gains comes in buying oil companies (from the little
guys like
Dawson Geophysical to the
ExxonMobil s of the world) on weakness --
specifically when there's oil price weakness.
I first
wrote about thisback in the spring when oil was closer to
$50 a barrel. There may be good opportunities now
(particularly as a hedge against rising energy costs), but if
oil falls back into the $40s and $50s, and oil stocks weaken,
definitely do your research and consider seizing the
opportunity.
Small caps
There are certainly bank and oil small caps that are
worth researching (I mentioned a bank example already) if you
have the requisite expertise. But small caps (i.e., companies
with market capitalizations between $200 million and $2
billion) span every sector out there, so if banks and oil
aren't your thing, you can tailor your search to your circle
of competence.
Small caps tend to be more volatile than their larger
brethren, so when the stock market experiences turbulence
(read: now!), small caps experience earthquake-like
movement.
When the price is right, we can capitalize.
Let me walk you through a screen I'm using to find
promising small caps. It's a little boring, but stick with
me, because there are some interesting stocks at the end.
I'm not interested in temporary beauty, so I looked for
companies that had both positive earnings and positive free
cash flow for
the last five years. For cheapness' sake, I also
made sure the companies were trading for less than 10 times
the most recent earnings and free cash flow numbers via the
P/E and P/FCF metrics.
A lot of wonks bicker over whether P/E or P/FCF is a
better metric. Frankly, I see no reason why both earnings and
cash flow shouldn't be strong -- we want companies that are
both accounting profitable
andgenerating cash off of that profitability. As a
final check, I made sure the companies were easily able to
cover their interest payments.
The screen generated 20 companies, but one in particular
caught my eye. Here's the complete list:Â
Company
P/E Ratio
P/FCF Ratio
Knoll (NYSE: KNL)
9.7
8.9
Gentiva Health Services
4.5
8.8
Amedisys
9.9
8.2
Suburban Propane Partners
8.1
8.1
Force Protection (Nasdaq: FRPT)
7.6
8.0
Comfort Systems USA
9.7
7.9
EarthLink
5.9
7.7
Pre-Paid Legal Services (NYSE:
PPD)
7.3
6.3
Life Partners Holdings
8.7
6.0
ProAssurance
9.3
5.9
Hawaiian Holdings
5.4
5.6
Advance America
8.5 Continued... |