Penny-stock loversare having a big laugh at the expense
of blue-chip investors.
A list of blue-chip stocks selling at penny-stock prices
reads like a Who's Who of government bailouts:
Citigroup ,
AIG (before a 1:20 reverse split),
Fannie Mae , and
Freddie Mac . And I'm excluding the outright
bankruptcies.
It feels like a betrayal. Blue-chip stocks are supposed to
be big and safe ... downright boring, even. Investors in blue
chips expect steady growth and solid, inflation-beating
returns. They
don'texpect shares to become
virtually worthless.
Those are the risks that penny-stock buyers (hopefully)
knowingly take. Penny stocks are the ones that promise binary
outcomes: wild upsides or bust. Now we have a parade of blue
chips that are no longer investments but speculations on
dubious business models.
Is Citigroup's loan portfolio really that bad? What will
Fannie Mae look like in five years? Is it possible to
extricate AIG's core insurance business from its credit
default swap nightmare? Who the heck knows?
Investments are calculated risks based on the study of a
business. When you can't even pretend to quantify those
risks, you have speculation -- precisely what you have in
these fallen blue chips and in many penny stocks.
Fortunately, we can combine the better qualities of
classic blue chips and penny stocks to find some seriously
intriguing investments -- we'll call them blue-chip penny
stocks. Let's build one from the ground up.
Size matters
To capture the
potential upside of penny stocks, we should focus on
small caps -- stocks with market capitalizations of roughly
between $200 million and $2 billion. As we've seen, large
caps may not be too big to fail, but they're too big to grow
by leaps and bounds.
I set a floor of $200 million because microcap stocks
aren't usually established enough to satisfy the "blue-chip"
part of blue-chip penny stocks.
Beware the bogus
We can limit a major downside of penny stocks by buying
only small caps that are listed on major exchanges (in the
U.S., that means the NYSE, the Nasdaq, and the Amex). The
major U.S. exchanges have listing requirements that screen
out many of the fly-by-night operations -- the kinds that
send out spam emails pumping their stocks.
There are some legitimate companies that trade over the
counter (
Nintendo comes to mind), but fishing the OTC
waters is not the best way to find the
future 10-baggersI've written about in the past. It's
much more likely that these will become troubled
stocks to sell.
Strength and performance
The beauty of traditional blue chips is that they're
not just selling you a dream. In the best cases, they
generate strong cash flows that are backed up by rock-solid
balance sheets -- think
Kraft (NYSE: KFT),
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), and
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). We should expect
no less from our small-cap stocks.
One additional caveat. Every company can promise a rosy
future: For instance, analysts expect tech heavies
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC),
SAP (NYSE: SAP), and
Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) to average 10%-15%
annual growth for the next five years despite the state of
the economy. It's up to us to figure out whether the rosy
promises will wither over time.
They do exist!
So there you have it. It's possible to find stocks with
high upside that, while volatile, aren't quite as
boom-or-bust as penny stocks are. But only if we carefully
choose to focus the small-cap portion of our portfolio
on: Continued... |