I've
detailed the brillianceof Warren Buffett's buys in the
past. And I'm not the only one who holds him in such
esteem.
The investing world hangs on his every move. The copycat
buying is so severe that he occasionally gets a special
exemption from the Securities and Exchange Commission to
delay disclosing those moves.
Even his maybe-possibly perhaps buys move markets. After
Chinese clothing maker
Dayang Group outfitted Buffett in some suits,
he publicly proclaimed his love. The resulting buying frenzy
has turned the Shanghai-listed stock into an international
multi-bagger sensation in mere months. Speculators are hoping
his fandom turns into ownership, just as it has in the past
with
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), GEICO, and
Washington Post .
We spend much less time poring over his sells -- but
they're even more important. Why? Because the man whose
favorite holding period is forever absolutely hates selling.
So when he sells, there are very good reasons. Here are just
a few of them.
Sell When You're Wrong
Yes, Warren Buffett makes mistakes. The name
of his company,
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B), is a
reminder of that fact.
Before it became a wide-ranging conglomerate, Berkshire
Hathaway was a textile mill. Ironically, given his recent
endorsement of a Chinese textile maker, he chose to cease
operations because he couldn't compete profitably with the
cheap labor of foreign competition.
It took him about 20 years to admit he was wrong and cease
operations, but he learned that lesson well. When he bought a
big stake in
Conoco Phillips (NYSE: COP) near the height
of 2008's oil bubble, he quickly admitted his mistake and
began selling out of his position.
Sell When the Grass Is Greener
Earlier this year, my colleagues Brian
Richards and Tim Hanson fleshed out this case in "
Why You Should Sell."
Basically, no matter how good an investment is, you should
sell if a better opportunity is out there.
Buffett sold a slug of
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) in the
fourth quarter of last year. Why? Not because he lost faith
in Johnson & Johnson (he actually picked up some shares
in the two subsequent quarters). Nope, he just had better
opportunities available to him. Remember, this was when the
financial sky was falling and companies like
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and
General Electric (NYSE: GE) were throwing
money at him: Each gave him 10% interest rates
plusequity upside in exchange for his money and his
name.
Sell When You're Overmatched
In this case, selling means not buying in the
first place. Buffett generally refuses to buy technology
companies. When one of your best buddies is Bill Gates, it's
hard to claim technological ignorance. Yet, he does.
He's commented that
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has an amazing moat,
but it's a moat he refuses to exploit. Why? Because he can
hazard a pretty good guess what Coke will look like 50 years
from now. He knows he can't do that with Google.
So he stays away.
Sell When You've Won
By the late 90's, Buffett was sitting on a
huge mispricing with Coca-Cola. Like the rest of the market,
its shares had run up to silly heights. In Coke's case, it
was selling for more than 50 times earnings. Continued... |