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Friday, October 02, 2009
Anand Chokkavelu :: Townhall.com Columnist
When Would Buffett Sell?
by Anand Chokkavelu
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I've detailed the brillianceof Warren Buffett's buys in the past. And I'm not the only one who holds him in such esteem.

The investing world hangs on his every move. The copycat buying is so severe that he occasionally gets a special exemption from the Securities and Exchange Commission to delay disclosing those moves.

Even his maybe-possibly perhaps buys move markets. After Chinese clothing maker Dayang Group outfitted Buffett in some suits, he publicly proclaimed his love. The resulting buying frenzy has turned the Shanghai-listed stock into an international multi-bagger sensation in mere months. Speculators are hoping his fandom turns into ownership, just as it has in the past with Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), GEICO, and Washington Post .

We spend much less time poring over his sells -- but they're even more important. Why? Because the man whose favorite holding period is forever absolutely hates selling. So when he sells, there are very good reasons. Here are just a few of them.

Sell When You're Wrong
Yes, Warren Buffett makes mistakes. The name of his company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B), is a reminder of that fact.

Before it became a wide-ranging conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway was a textile mill. Ironically, given his recent endorsement of a Chinese textile maker, he chose to cease operations because he couldn't compete profitably with the cheap labor of foreign competition.

It took him about 20 years to admit he was wrong and cease operations, but he learned that lesson well. When he bought a big stake in Conoco Phillips (NYSE: COP) near the height of 2008's oil bubble, he quickly admitted his mistake and began selling out of his position.

Sell When the Grass Is Greener
Earlier this year, my colleagues Brian Richards and Tim Hanson fleshed out this case in " Why You Should Sell."

Basically, no matter how good an investment is, you should sell if a better opportunity is out there.

Buffett sold a slug of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) in the fourth quarter of last year. Why? Not because he lost faith in Johnson & Johnson (he actually picked up some shares in the two subsequent quarters). Nope, he just had better opportunities available to him. Remember, this was when the financial sky was falling and companies like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) were throwing money at him: Each gave him 10% interest rates plusequity upside in exchange for his money and his name.

Sell When You're Overmatched
In this case, selling means not buying in the first place. Buffett generally refuses to buy technology companies. When one of your best buddies is Bill Gates, it's hard to claim technological ignorance. Yet, he does.

He's commented that Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has an amazing moat, but it's a moat he refuses to exploit. Why? Because he can hazard a pretty good guess what Coke will look like 50 years from now. He knows he can't do that with Google.

So he stays away.

Sell When You've Won
By the late 90's, Buffett was sitting on a huge mispricing with Coca-Cola. Like the rest of the market, its shares had run up to silly heights. In Coke's case, it was selling for more than 50 times earnings. Continued...

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About The Author

Anand Chokkavelu is a Motley Fool contributor.

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