Pop quiz, hot shot. Name the company that's most likely to
be a 10-bagger by 2020.
It's a hard question. There isn't just one
correct answer -- you can find three candidates
here-- but it's easy to weed out some popular incorrect
answers.
If you named
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG),
Pepsi (NYSE: PEP),
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), or any other
large-cap company, you're probably wrong. They're simply too
big to grow tenfold in the next decade. My Foolish colleague
Tim Hanson has shown year in and year out that a
decade's biggest winnersare small-cap stocks.
He found that the largest grower of the last 10 years,
beverage company
Hansen Natural , was almost a 50-bagger. Even
at 50 times its original market capitalization, Hansen is a
$3 billion company -- one-tenth the size of Caterpillar,
one-thirtieth the size of Pepsi, and one-fiftieth the size of
Procter & Gamble.
It gets better
Besides having room to grow, small caps have another
hidden feature. They are more volatile than their large-cap
brethren. This can lead to fluctuations that are absolutely
heartbreaking for investors with low risk tolerances. But for
those of us with higher risk tolerance, the volatility
provides opportunity.
As we've seen recently, large-cap stocks can be quite
volatile, too. When their price losses significantly outstrip
the market's, though, there's usually something terribly
amiss.
Familiar examples abound:
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) -- Banking.
Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS) -- Video
games.
Coach (NYSE: COH) -- Luxury goods.
Devon (NYSE: DVN) -- Natural gas.
All of the above were down this year for good reason, be
it an ailing industry or a lagging competitive position.
That's not always the case for small caps, though.
A quick example
Take the recent case of restaurant company
Buffalo Wild Wings . Back in late October, it
reported quarterly earnings that were disappointing. But
given the state of the economy in general and the restaurant
sector specifically, the results were downright robust:
positive earnings-per-share growth and impressive same-store
sales growth (6.8% at company-owned stores).
In response, shares were sliced in half in the month
following the earnings release ... only to gain it all back
and then some after the company beat analyst expectations in
the subsequent quarter. Over the past few months, it's been
the same company with the same long-term prospects. There
have been no huge company-related events, and its price is
about the same now as it was a year ago.
But somewhere in the middle, the market threw a half-off
sale for investors patient enough to wait for a discounted
entry point. Since they took advantage of volatility, those
investors need only a five-bagger (or less) from here to
reach the vaunted 10-bagger status.
The 10-bagger club
In 2020, when we look back at the decade's list of
10-baggers, the list will be dominated by stocks that can be
described as: Continued... |