It took him long enough.
At the end of 2004,
Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway had around $44 billion in
cash. Ditto for 2005. And 2006. And, yes, 2007 as well.
At one point, more than 20% of Berkshire's assets were
earning money market returns. While armchair investors
complained that the company had amassed too much capital to
continue its market-thrashing ways, Buffett simply sat on
Berkshire's enormous pile of cash. And waited. And waited.
And waited some more.
He
refused to buyuntil the time was right.
The time is right
Buffett has called the current mess an "economic Pearl
Harbor." He's also said, "In my adult lifetime, I don't think
I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are
now."
These weren't just words. Mr.
Greedy-When-Others-Are-Fearful started stuffing money where
his mouth was.
That $44 billion that Berkshire had at the beginning of
2008? By the end of last June, Buffett had spent it down to
$31 billion, via deals including Berkshire's purchase of
Marmon Holdings, the Mars purchase of Wrigley, and the
Dow Chemical takeover of Rohm and Haas. He
even bought up auction-rate securities at bargain prices.
And in the second half of the year, he
acceleratedthe buying. It's nice to have cash when
the credit markets are frozen.
Last fall, Buffett committed:
Constellation Energy for $26.50 per share.
(The deal later fell through, but not without Buffett
pocketing a hefty breakup fee of about $1 billion.)
$5 billion to purchase perpetual preferred stock in
Goldman Sachs . He not only gets the hefty
10% dividend, but also receives warrants allowing him to
buy $5 billion of common stock at $115 per share.
$3 billion to
General Electric , under terms similar to
the Goldman Sachs deal -- except that the preferred stock
is callable for a 10% premium after three years. The
warrants allow him to buy stock at $22.25 per share.
Buffett was willing to put more than $20 billion to work
over
that one-month
period(although, again, the Constellation deal
ultimately fell through). On top of that, he penned a "Buy
American" op/ed piece in
The New York Times, saying he was putting personal
money to work in U.S. equities. Buffett's back, baby!
Buffett's buying. Should you?
Historically, average investors could simply ride
Buffett's coattails to returns that easily doubled the
market's. But this time is different.
Buffett got sweetheart deals on both Goldman and GE. In
the case of GE, he's earning 10% dividends on a company that
was AAA-rated at the time. If he buys the warrants and they
pan out, he'll earn even more.
When Buffett made those deals, he was providing much more
than just capital. He was lending his credibility. That meant
Goldman and GE were willing to give him great deals in hopes
that his name alone would stabilize their stock prices for
follow-on offerings.
In other words, don't buy into Goldman or General Electric
just because Buffett has.
Learning from Buffett
Instead of buying what Buffett is buying, we should
look to what his strategy has to teach us. So what can we
learn from his shopping spree? Two things:
Buffett's pushing 80, but
he hasn't been panickingand trying to make a quick buck,
no matter what the market has done. Instead, he's been
investing for the long term. In the past few years, that's
meant waiting for opportunities to present themselves. Now
that they are, he's been striking with a vengeance.
Because of his patience, he hasn't had to compromise --
and he's getting great companies at great prices. When
Constellation Energy's price dropped so precipitously a year
ago (from above $60 to the $20s), he was ready to pounce.
Goldman and GE may have approached him, but you can be darn
sure that he'd already done the bulk of his research
beforehand.
Follow Buffett's lead
To be great investors, we need to be similarly
prepared. In volatile times like these, Mr. Market presents
us with loads of great values -- but just because a stock
price has fallen, that doesn't mean a given company is a good
value.
To wit: Here's a screen of companies with market
capitalizations above $5 billion that are trading
substantially off their 52-week highs:
Company
% of 52-Week High
P/E Ratio
Nokia (NYSE: NOK)
72%
12.5
Monsanto (NYSE: MON)
65%
20.7
Medtronic (NYSE: MDT)
71%
22.2
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