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Monday, July 28, 2008
Amanda Carpenter :: Townhall.com Columnist
Gallup: McCain Up By Four Points
by Amanda Carpenter
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Poll
With unemployment at 10.2%, what will happen by the end of Obama's first term?



Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s weeklong trip abroad doesn’t have a happy ending. The latest USA Today/Gallup poll gives GOP candidate John McCain a 4 point-edge over Obama among likely voters, 49 percent to 45 percent.

The poll was released Monday, a day after Obama returned to the United States from spending a week holding meetings and giving speeches in Iraq, Afghanistan, Germany and France.

McCain made significant gains since USA Today/Gallup conducted a similar poll among “likely” voters lat month. In the June USA Today/Gallup poll, McCain trailed Obama among likely voters 50 percent to 44 percent. The new 49-45 margin for McCain presents a near poll reversal.

McCain still trails Obama among “registered” voters--a larger pool of people not considered as likely to vote as “likely” voters. McCain did however close this gap by a notable margin. In June, Obama was beating McCain among registered voters by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent. Now, Obama only has a three point lead over McCain among registered voters, 47 to 44 percent.

McCain’s 4-point lead among likely voters is within the margin of error. Obama’s three point edge over McCain among registered voters is, too. Both polls, conducted Friday-Sunday, have a 4 point margin of error.

791 likely voters were surveyed and 900 registered voters were surveyed.

This month-to-month poll is different than Gallup’s own “Daily tracking” poll which currently gives Obama a 8 percent lead over McCain, 48 to 40 percent.

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About The Author
Amanda Carpenter is the author of “The Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy's Dossier on Hillary Clinton,” published in October 2006.
 
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oil
Drilling for oil is McCains strongest and best issue, especially since Obama and the Demo congress are so dead set against it. He should stress this issue and the startup of alternate issues also.

Foghat is right
In NH BO was way ahead in the polls and took it in the shorts on election day. Were the polls just wrong or was there a 10-20% Bradley effect?

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