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Monday, November 05, 2007
Amanda Carpenter :: Townhall.com Columnist
State of the Race: November 5, 2007
by Amanda Carpenter
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Poll
Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


State of the Race Monday November 5, 2007

 

Here’s a round up of presidential campaign polls conducted and released within the last week.

 

NATIONAL POLLS

REPUBLICANS
Newsweek: Giuliani by 15 points
Giuliani: 30 percent
Thompson: 15 percent
McCain: 14 percent
Romney: 12 percent
Huckabee:  7 percent
Poll conducted among 430 Republicans voters from 10/31-11/01

ABC/Washington Post: Giuliani by 14 points
Giuliani: 33 percent
McCain: 19 percent
Thompson: 16 percent
Romney: 11 percent
Huckabee: 9 percent
Poll conducted among 436 Republicans leaning voters from 10/29-11/01

Rasmussen: Giuliani by 9 points
Giuliani: 24 percent
Thompson: 15 percent
McCain: 14 percent
Romney: 14 percent
Huckabee: 10 percent
Poll conducted among 600 likely Republican voters from 10/28-10/31

 DEMOCRATS:

Newsweek: Clinton by 19 points
Clinton: 43 percent
Obama: 23 percent
Edwards: 12 percent
Poll conducted among 433 registered Democratic voters from 10/31-11/01. 

ABC/Washington Post: Clinton by 23 points
Clinton: 46 percent
Obama: 24 percent
Edwards: 12 percent
Poll conducted among 598 Democrat-leaning voters from 10/29-11/01

Rasmussen: Clinton by 23 points
Clinton: 43 percent
Obama: 20 percent
Edwards: 12 percent
Poll conducted among 750 likely Democratic voters from 10/28-10/31 

 

REPUBLICAN LEADER VERSUS DEMOCRAT LEADER

Newsweek: Clinton by 4 points
Clinton: 49 percent
Giuliani: 45 percent
Undecided: 6 percent
Poll conducted among 1002 registered voters from 10/31-11/01

 ABC/Washington Post: Clinton by 4 points
Clinton: 50 percent
Giuliani: 46 percent
Undecided: 1 percent
Poll conducted among 1131 likely voters from 10/29-11/01

 Quinnipiac: Giuliani by 2 points
Giuliani: 45 percent
Clinton: 43 percent
Undecided: 6 percent
Poll conducted among 1636 registered voters from 10/23-10/29 

 

IOWA STATE POLLS
January 3 caucus

Republicans
American Research Group: Romney by 8 points
Romney: 27 percent
Huckabee: 19 percent
Giuliani: 16 percent
McCain: 14 percent
Thompson: 8 percent
Poll conducted among 600 likely Republican voters from 10/26-10/29 

 Democrats
American Research Group: Clinton by 10 points
Clinton: 32 percent
Edwards: 22 percent
Obama: 15 percent
Edwards: 7 percent
Biden: 5 percent
Poll conducted among 600 likely Democratic voters from 10/26-10/29

 

NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE POLLS
Primary date TBA

Republicans
American Research Group: Romney by 7 points
Romney: 30 percent
Giuliani: 23 percent
McCain: 17 percent
Huckabee: 7 percent
Thompson: 5 percent
Paul: 1 percent
Poll conducted among 600 likely Republican voters from 10/26-10/29   

Democrats
American Research Group: Clinton by 18 points
Clinton: 40 percent
Obama: 22 percent
Edwards: 10 percent
Richardson: 5 percent
Poll conducted among 600 likely Democratic voters from 10/26-10/29 

 

MICHIGAN STATE POLLS
January 15 primary/caucus

No new polls released within the last week

 

NEVADA STATE POLLS
January 19 primary/caucus

No new polls released within the last week

 

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE POLLS
Republican primary/caucus January 19
Democratic primary/caucus January 29

Republicans
American Research Group: Romney by 6 points
Romney: 29 percent
Giuliani: 23 percent
McCain: 13 percent
Thompson: 10 percent
Huckabee: 6 percent
Poll conducted among 600 likely Republican voters from 10/26-10/29

 Democrats
American Research Group: Clinton by 22 points
Clinton: 41 percent
Obama: 19 percent
Edwards: 18 percent
Poll conduced among 600 likely Democratic voters from10/26-10/20 

 

FLORIDA STATE POLLS
January 29 primary/caucus

No new polls released within the last week

 

CALIFORNIA STATE POLLS
February 5 primary/caucus

No new polls released within the last week

 

NEW JERSEY
February 5 primary/caucus

No new polls released within the last week

PENNSLYVANIA
April 22 primary/caucus

No new polls released within the last week

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About The Author
Amanda Carpenter is the author of “The Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy's Dossier on Hillary Clinton,” published in October 2006.
 
TOWNHALL DAILY: Be the first to read Amanda Carpernter. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com daily lineup delivered each morning to your inbox.
Money Talks
The polls have historically been shown to be drastically off leading up to primary elections. One thing is for sure, though -- Ron Paul has real world support of a magnitude that dwarfs most of the other candidates. He has raised over $2 million since midnight last night alone with thousands of new supporters donating.

http://www.ronpaul2008.com
http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com

I never have trusted the polls, and I certainly don't trust them now. All of the momentum seems to be with Huckabee, Romney, and Ron Paul. My money (literally) is on Ron Paul.

HUNTER FOR AMERICA

Securing the border and enforcing the law is the only way we get to keep our rule of law, our representative Republic, and our Constitution. We must elect a President who WILL secure the border and enforce the law. If citizenship becomes meaningless, this will no longer be the United States of America.

The so-called "top tier" will not get out the voters necessary for a GOP win. Increasing turnout is the key. Give people something to vote for. Not just the lesser of two evils. Won't work this time. People are fed up with the inundation of illegal aliens. They would come out in droves for the clear choice of D=amnesty or R=enforcement. They will stay home if they both equal amnesty.

There is a huge majority of American citizens waiting for someone to pledge to uphold the laws and secure the borders, let's not ignore them any more.

http://www.gohunter08.co

Remember the 5th of November...
Yes, the polls are interesting. In 2003, Kerry way down in Iowa and then turns it around the last two weeks to win. If you are a Paul, Hunter or Tancredo supporter, you hope for a similar scenario since it has happened before.

Speaking of Paul, the "Remember, remember the 5th of November" one-day money bomb is well over 2 million dollars. He will set a new one-day Republican primary fundraising record in the next few hours.

Some polls have shown him at 7% in NH. Say what you want, but Ron Paul is "catching on."

Mitt & Ann Christmas > granchildren
Mitt and his wife Ann shop early for their 10 soon to be 12 grandchidren. Now leading in the first five states and many more ,Ann has decided to take advantage of this time wisely.

Polls and Paul
Ron Paul raises over 3 million dollars from ordinary Americans in 1 day, but can't score in the polls? Something is out of wack...I guess I would encourage Ron Paul supporters to get out there, talk to your neighbors, write letters, call talk shows. The truth is like a brick wall. In regards to the war in Iraq and America's role as world police, we are about to hit that wall very hard. Ron Paul is telling us the truth about our foriegn policy and so much more. The American people are yawning and stretching now, but they will wake up soon enough and when they do they will vote for liberty!

for Paul...
It's mostly about getting the message out. Despite the Old Media blackout, it looks like he could be well on his way to 2nd place in cash on hand, meaning lots of advertising possibilities... giving him a good chance to significantly improve his polling numbers. He won't catch Rudy in money anytime soon, but could certainly overtake Fred. And he's the *only* candidate with any momentum, both in polling and cash.

Once people start hearing about the Good Doctor, I believe the poll numbers will follow.

Romney should be doing better
With the money Romney is pouring into Iowa, it's remarkable that he isn't leading by an even bigger margin than he is.

According to these polls, only 15% at most of GOP voters nationally support Romney right now. To get from that low level to a majority of GOP convention delegates is a daunting task for him. Fred would have to drop out of the race altogether for Romney to have a chance at doing that, and I don't see that any time soon.

The social conservatives should be kicking themselves. First they drafted Fred into the race; then they soured on him; now some of them are settling on Romney--but Fred's entry into the race is blocking Romney from doing better among conservatives. The social conservatives ended up with the worst of both worlds--two (or even three, if you count Huck) candidates who are going after each other while Rudy sails along on his own path to the nomination.


Cut-and-paste reply to VP cut-and-paste
Forget Dunce Hunter

He's just another big government CINO loser! Check out his website. This clown wants big government federal censorship of the Internet, including requiring spying on Americans by banks and ISPs, to stop Americans from choosing to use their OWN money to play poker on the Internet in their own homes. Well, most conservatives think he can take his big government nanny-state ideas and leave them in Calif., because we don't want them! That's why he's polling at 1%.

If you want freedom from federal tyranny, vote for Ron Paul. He's the only conservative in the race. Besides his support for limited government, he's pro-life and supports strong borders. And, unlike Hunter, whose support declines as people learn more about him, Paul's stature only increases as people learn of his wise beliefs.

SteveL
Romney is leading in 5 of the first primary states - I think he's probably pretty happy with where he's at!

You're right, though about the conservative vote split. Unless people wise up about how lame Fred and Huck are, Rudy could win the nomination.

Wow
Romney ahead in South Carolina?! Wow, who would have thought that was even possible a few months ago. I think having 4 or 5 candidates, each of which has a decent shot at taking the nomination, is a great thing for the Republican party. Its the electoral process at its finest.

Ways to Go
There is a long way to go but the way things are shaping up today I would rather be in Romney's shoes.

Romney will win IA, Huck/Rudy will run 2 or 3. Fred and McCain will run 4 or 5. Huck is forcing Rudy to spend more money in IA than he planned.

NH will be a fierce battle. McCain will throw most of what he has into NH. That will force Rudy to spend more. I would give an edge to Romney in NH based on a win in IA and home field advantage with Rudy/McCain in 2nd or 3rd. Ron Paul will eat into the Independent vote and may place higher than 4th. Romney's national poll numbers rocket.

Wyo fits in about the 5th of Jan. Romney should take Wyo especially if Fred is blown out of IA and NH and Huck hits a brick wall in NH.

MI (15th) will be another fierce and very expensive battle. McCain will throw the rest of what he has into MI. Rudy will have to spend more than he wants. I would give Romney an edge due to home field advantage, momentum and organization.

NV (19th) should be a Romney win. Another Western state that is Romney friendly. Rudy is second and who knows after that.

SC is a free for all but Romney wins based on momentum from IA, NH, and MI. Rudy is probably 2nd. Fred is defeated after failing to run better than 4th in any major state and is out of money. McCain hits the money wall in MI. Huck never had any money and his second place in IA evaporated in NH.

FL it is now a Romney Rudy race and Rudy has spent much of his money. Romney will force Rudy to spend more.

Super Tuesday is a Romney Rudy race but Romney has more money and momentum.

Key points
IA, NH, WY, MI and NV are somewhat Romney friendly and that helps. If the Religious Right get behind Romney SC and FL become Romney friendly.

I would not put to much faith in the national polls right now. CBS had Kerry at 4 nationally in Dec. of 2003. However, much of 2003 he was 1 or 2 in the state polls in IA and NH. Kerry should have been no surprise to anyone who focused on the state polls instead of the national poll shell game that the media play each election.

Rudy can not afford to run 3rd behind Huck in IA. He can not afford to run 3rd behind McCain in NH or MI. Unless something changes Fred will be dead after NH. So will Huck. Ron Paul my run 3rd in NH.

Woo hoo!
Ron Paul raised $3 mil in the past 24 hrs on his website (http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=3822989&page=1). When will they start including him in the polls?

But hey, at least Huckabee's finally in there, busting his way into the top tier like a prizefighter.

Huckabee/Paul '08!

Polls. Big deal.
Polls predicted a Dewey victory over Truman, including election night predictions.

Same in Kerry v. Bush.

There's only one poll that counts, and it takes place on 4 Nov 2008.

I'm not talking about the blow-dried airheads on the netwroks, either.


well, BrianR...
there are those primary exit polls I'm worried about... since I really don't want the Rs to nominate a Hillary to run against *the* Hillary.

But I definitely agree with your statement on blow-dried airheads on the networks. Where the hell do they get these idiots?

Oh, and for everyone here, Ron Paul raised 4.2 (pinkee to the side of the mouth) MILLION DOLLARS today.

I love breaking that kind of news... particularly when I can make an "Austin Powers" reference.

Hey Amanda! Got any polls today?
Hehe

Romney ahead in all states
Go Mitt Go!!!

Ron Paul’s Record Online Haul

How is the GOP not dead in 08 without Ron Paul?

WP-Today, Nov. 5, marks not only Paul’s best fundraising haul in a single day — more than $2.5 million by 6 p.m. EST — but online observers say it’s also the most money raised by a candidate on the Web in a single day. And the day’s not over yet. “Damn. Wow. Um, that’s pretty awesome,” said a stunned Jerome Armstrong who served as Howard Dean’s online strategist. Armstrong, the founder of the popular blog MyDD, said Dean raised as much as $700,000 in one day toward the end of the primary race. “But not a million,” Armstrong added. “What Paul is doing — or what his supporters are doing — is really impressive.” You can view all the fundraising data here.

READ MORE

http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/ron-pauls-record-o nline-haul

America needs a DOCTOR.
Ron Paul has set a record: $4.2M in 24 hours. Not bad for a "third tier wackjob."

I highly recommend everyone check out this wise man:

http://www.ronpaul2008.com

pianogirl - we have
and we're saying no thank you. This money is impressive, but it will not translate into major republican support.

well, Repubs might say no thank you...
but true conservatives are saying yes, please... and what can I do to help?

Unfortunately, Bush and his Repub Congress have turned the once-proud, once-principled GOP into the party enormously bloated centralized government that starts elective wars, rolls back the Bill of Rights (Patriot Act) turns a blind eye to human rights abuses (rendition, torture), and completely destroys the economy and the value of the dollar.

I'm hoping there are enough truly principled conservatives left in the GOP to give Dr. Paul the votes he needs for the nomination. If not, then welcome Madame President. No pro-war Bush clone stands a chance in 2008. Not with fully three quarters of Americans against our latest foreign policy adventures.

Clinton's numbers are too high!
In spite of her recent mistakes and her long history of real flip flops and scandals, she still leads the demo pack by a mile.

I noticed hubby Bill was smoothing out her latest faux pas today. Who is the real candidate if he is the one making the media correction (like a father correcting a son/daughter)? That media statement made me very uncomfortable with the Clinton power of the throne. The Gang of Two? Shudder!

Meanwhile, Romney's holds his uphill traction even if the gains are slow. The good news is he doesn't slip back (on average) once the public has some direct experience with his campaign. He is wearing out a lot of shoe leather which is to his credit that he is making direct contact with the voters, state by state. His Ask Mitt Anything forums are a credit to his integrity, a risky setting for any candidate.

I think of the folk story of the tortoise and the hare where conventional money was on the hare (Thompson? Rudy?) but the tortoise was the stronger because he didn't give up. While Mitt is no turtle in terms of energy and organization, he is slower to rise in the polls because he's been a businessman for the majority of his working years and out of the limelight.

Mitt hit the real issue squarely on the head when he made the impacting statement that we don't need an INTERN in the White House, that you don't practice on the job how to do the job of being an executive!

I hope he hammers away at that theme. We need a seasoned, disciplined, team building (not team fracturing) executive to take the financial reins of our run-away bloated government and to firmly interact with our friends and foes abroad. We need a man of courage and experience, one guided by a philosophy of conservative principles. It is a bonus that he is a person of integrity in his personal life.

I prefer Romney but will support with determination the GOP candidate and hope you will do the same so 2008 elections will find us untied and strong!

WHY RON PAUL CAN'T WIN

.....KHOMAR ...

.....When Newt Gingrich as Republican speaker submitted a budget that tried to cut spending ...it was veteod by Clinton ...the Media crucified Newt as "The Grinch Who Stole Christmas" ...public opinion turned against Gingrich ...the Republican's in the House responding to their constituints ran from Gingrich as if he were a plague carrier ...Clinton got his way and the Gingrich revolution was over ...the Contract with America was recinded ...

......Since that disasterous defeat the Republicans gave up on limited government and on cutting spending ...they became Democrat-Lite ...

.....The lesson learned was that public support for the Republican agenda of Constitutional Government just wasn't there ...the mindless masses had been indoctrinated through the Government schools since FDR to accept Socialist Programs run by big Government Agencies ...

.....Paul represents the Party that Gingrich tried to build with his contract with America ...unfortunately America has broken that contract ...and that is why Paul can't win ...he has the support of a small cadre of the faithful ...but he cannot get the broad support he needs to win a Nation election ...America has sold out to big Government .....COLOSSUS

PAULYWOGS PAY ATTENTION!

.....Read my 11:04 AM post on why Paul can't win ...he would probably be good for the Country but it is too late to breath life into the mindless masses ...they would not support him against Hillarious ...

.....The only role Paul can play right now is that of a spoiler ...by siphoning off conservative votes in the Primaries he helps Rudy's chances ...I would not be surprised to find out that the source of his campaign contributions is Soros and the Clinton camp to help Rudy win the nomination ...

.....This is not as far fetched as it seems ...Clinton/Soros want Rudy to be Hillary's opponent ...they calculate that he is the opponent that Hillary has the best chance to defeat ...The MSM will give Rudy positive press (and dubious National poll numbers) until he wins the nomination and then the gloves will come off and they will tear him to pieces ...

.....Every conservative vote for Paul or Thompson in the Primaries helps Rudy's chances .....COLOSSUS

Dems and money
Dems may be pouring money into Paul in an attempt to focus the news cycle on the War and Rep opposition to the War. They may be using Paul as a wedge issue.

Paul now has more cash on hand than McCain and probably as much as Fred. He can alter the agenda and the order of finish in early primary states. He can create major problems for McCain and Rudy and the other candidates to some extent. He can jump his vote among Independents with a good ad campaign. He can run all the way to the convention.

Ron Paul is a nut
He is a moonbat. He makes Ross Perot look sane and sensible. (At least Ross Perot was successful in business. What has Ron Paul done?)

A real nightmare scenario would be Ron Paul v. Hillary. It would make me consider spending my retirement years in Australia.

AudiR10
You need to get a New York driver's license and cast ballots in New York. Please! Go for it!

baseballdoc...
"Paul represents the Party that Gingrich tried to build with his contract with America ...unfortunately America has broken that contract"

--Uhhh, no - the Republican faux-conservatives broke that contract. Dr. Paul held up his end of the contract. America voted in a Repub president with a Repub Congress... and what happened? Spending through the roof, probably the most fiscally irresponsible government in history. America voted the Repub Congress out.

I am, however, glad to see you characterize Dr. Paul as a Contract With America conservative.

I'll contend that the *only* way a Repub can win is on a truly conservative platform. It worked in 1994 and it gave Reagan 2 huge landslide victories. A sure-fire way to *lose* the election is to nominate a faux-conservative, particularly one who's pro-war when the country is anti-war to the tune of 75%.

Democrat-lite is a sure-fire loser ticket. Pro-war is a sure-fire loser ticket. Ron Paul is a strong anti-war conservative. That's the only way we can win in 2008.

And baseballdoc - this Clinton/Soros/Rudy talk is really far-fetched. Maybe, just maybe you should consider the possibility that there are a whole lot of people who really like Dr. Paul's message enough to open up their wallets.

BG...
you're just getting desperate now. Just like I told baseballdoc, you might want to consider that crazy possibility that a lot of people who have heard Dr. Paul's message like it enough to contribute some of their hard earned dollars.

Maybe every other candidate sounds the same, and Paul is the only one who makes sense to some. Just some food for thought.

Don't be a Hannity parrot who just can't possibly comprehend why a message of freedom could be so popular.

AL

.....I hope you are right but I am a cynic by nature and a pragmatist by neccessity ...

.....I think you give too much credit to the rank and file voters ...I think they have turned their backs on the America that Paul represents ...they proved this when they didn't support Newt in his budget battle with Clinton ...

.....There just aren't enough true Conservatives left anymore (they have become moderate/independent/swing voters) to put Paul over the top ...

.....If Paul wins the nomination I will vote for him but I think his chances are none and none .....COLOSSUS

baseballdoc...
I'm wired the same way, and pragmatically speaking, the only way a repub can win is if he's anti-war and conservative.

In 2006, the Repubs got crushed, mostly because

1) the war
2)they sold out their traditional conservative values (runaway spending)
3) corruption

Now there's even less support for the war. Only an anti-war candidate can tap into the overwhelming number of Dems and independents who are anti-war (89% and 72% respectively). Only a true conservative can motivate the conservative base to show up to the polls.

I think people figured there were no more true conservatives left in 1976. That's why Reagan was excoriated for running a strong, principled campaign against Ford. Then, in 1980, we got our conservative... and he won big.

I don't see any reason why we can't get our conservative again in 2008.

more liberal, or less--you decide in 08!
I am not sensing that Americans are just dying to have their guns seized (Romney), marriage deconstructed (Thompson), citizenship erased by illegal immigration, partial birth abortion practiced in every city, King and King taught in every school, taxes raised, government controlled medical care, political speech regulated (fairness doctrine), and Iraq handed over to Iran as a conciliatory gift from the Democrats (Ron Paul).

So why are conservatives being shown the door and told we must compromise? Because Liberals are trying to create European style elections, where the 2 choices are, "More Liberal," or "Less Liberal." Take these polls with a huge grain of salt, folks.

Huckabee is the most logical response to these bought-and-paid for liberal republicans and their dreamy poll numbers.

A poll-induced trance
Democrats would sure hate to face Duncan Hunter.

They cannot win an actual debate on the definition of marriage or on illegal immigration. Voters have shown in state after state that marriage is between one man and one woman. These issues must not even come up.


Democrats MUST HAVE Thompson or Guiliani. That is their plan. These candidates will never lack for funds, most "liberally" supplied. If we could only clue in our favorite talk show hosts. They are in a poll-induced trance.

Virginia Patriot, thank you for the great link.

http://www.gohunter08.com/

Does Fred even want to be President?
Sounds like his wife and people in Hollywood are forcing Fred to run. It's almost like elderly abuse.

75% people against war?
I think 100% of the people are against war theoretically. That is, they are stupid endeavors and a waste of life and property, however since there have been organized societies there have been wars and to think the necessity for war is going to go away soon because you pull the covers over your head is insane.

Each generation has their nutcases that want to rule the world, this is just the latest example and not terribly difficult so far to slow down but don’t let that fool you it is insidious an will march on whether you acknowledge it or not . Could we forget so quickly, for the first time in our history we were attacked on our own soil by people that couldn’t build their own plane or bomb and next it will be that nuclear device that they also can’t build. Al-Queda made the mistake we hoped they would make and threw all their resources into Iraq and now they are trying to re group, so instead of retreating we should be advancing, that is how the game of war is played, don’t let the enemy get away to fight another day. We need to continue to find their training facilities and destroy them before they destroy us. How many times can history repeat itself before we learn its lessons, you don’t even have to spend anything, just go to the history section of the library and by pass the fiction section.

Post 2
Only Pearl Harbor comes close but even then there were people that still thought they could ignore it and isolate America from the rest of the world(the world is much smaller now), we were at war and some didn’t know it, unfortunately the descendants of these people have grown in numbers. Make no mistake Islamic fascist as they are fashionably called are out to control the world with their ancient ideology against the worldwide infidel. Running a Republican anti war candidate is just another sign that the Republican party has given up and really needs to be replaced with another party that has passion that equals that of the very left leaning Democratic party and the left leaning Republican party now a days. This is from a moderate conservative, I am far from right wing. Does anyone really think that an isolationist policy is what is going to make us more secure, if so it might explain why the Brooklyn bridge continues to get sold and why each year millions and millions of Americans are scammed out of their money by illiterate Nigerians with a computer, because Americans are naive’. So maybe they do think that hiding under the bed works, never worked for me but I have been wrong before. If you believe in this convoluted idea then you better also believe in the 2nd amendment and be willing to protect yourself because our government isn’t going to do it for you, one of the very few constitutional powers given to the federal government will be ignored to create a socialist or dare I say communist society.

Now that should get someone off their chair, want to call me crazy do so barrym@tds.net
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