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Thursday, April 19, 2007
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
What is Income?
by Alan Reynolds
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Two French economists, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, can count on a flood of publicity every time they release a new estimate of the share of U.S. income supposedly received by the top 1 percent. Even veteran Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson approached their latest "astonishing" estimates as unquestionable scripture. "The biggest gains occurred among the richest 1 percent," he exclaimed. "Their share of pretax income has gradually climbed from 8 percent in 1980 to 17 percent in 2005."

Gradually? On the contrary, half of that increase happened in just two years, 1987 and 1988. The top 1 percent's share (of what?) was 13.2 percent in 1988, 14.9 percent in 2003.

To calculate the top 1 percent's share of total income, we need a definition of total income. For postwar data, Piketty and Saez use a modified version of adjusted gross income (AGI). Unfortunately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates that AGI is not even a good measure of AGI -- it was missing $1.1 trillion dollars in 2004, called the "AGI Gap." It is also missing income of non-filers, estimated at $479 billion in 2000.

Transfer payments of $1.5 trillion are arbitrarily excluded, too. Benefits from private pensions qualify as "market income," yet benefits from Social Security do not.

The famed Canberra Group of experts insisted that household income must include cash transfers, food stamps and everything else that "increases the recipient's potential to consume or save." Most or all transfers are included in every official measure of pretax household income from the Congressional Budget Office, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Fed. My family will collect more than $3,000 a month from Social Security next year, but Piketty and Saez say that's not income (the IRS disagrees).

In the American Economic Review last May, Piketty and Saez explained that their top 1 percent figures for other countries "are obtained by dividing top income shares by personal income." Their U.S. figures for 2005, however, are obtained by dividing top income shares by "market income" of $6.8 trillion -- a figure 38 percent smaller than pretax personal income. Income of the top 1 percent ($1.2 trillion) was 10.8 percent of pretax personal income ($11.1 trillion).

Everyone imagines the increase in the top 1 percent share, from about 13 percent in 1988 to 17 percent in 2005, must reflect the lavish salaries of a few thousand CEOs and celebrities. Samuelson tells us, "There were about 18,000 lawyers, 15,000 corporate executives, 33,000 investment bankers (including hedge fund managers, venture capitalists and private-equity investors) and 2,000 athletes who made roughly $500,000 or more in 2004." But that totals 68,000 -- less than 5 percent of the 1.4 million in the top 1 percent.

Such lists of a few high salaries illustrate a pervasive fallacy that the top 1 percent's reported income has been driven up by labor income -- salaries, bonuses and "nonqualified" stock options reported on W2 forms. On the contrary, labor earnings fell from 66 percent of all income reported by the top 1 percent in 1986 to only 57 percent by 2005. Investment income dropped from 23 percent to 14 percent of top 1 percent income over the same period.

Increases in the top 1 percent's income after the 1986 Tax Reform came from more business income being reported on individual tax returns, rather than corporate tax returns. The share of the top 1 percent income coming from business profits jumped from 11 percent in 1986 to 21 percent in 1988, and continued rising to 27 percent in 1994, the year after individual tax rates were increased.

The business share was still 27 percent in 2002, but it rose to more than 29 percent in 2005 after individual tax rates were once again reduced. How and why that happened is a textbook example of why tax return data cannot be used to measure income distribution. And the example is not just in my own textbook, "Income and Wealth."

"Taxes and Business Strategies," an advanced text by Nobel Prize winner Myron Scholes and others, notes: "During the early 1970s ... many doctors, lawyers and consultants incorporated to escape the high personal tax rate and to shelter income at the lower corporate tax rate. After the Economic Recovery Act was passed in 1981, many of the corporations converted to partnerships (or Subchapter corporations or limited liability companies). This movement accelerated with the 1986 Tax Reform Act."

When the gap between the individual tax rate and the corporate rate narrowed, in 1982-88, and again in 2003, the previous 1970s rush to incorporate shifted into reverse. More professionals and private firms set up S-corporations, partnerships and limited liability companies, which pass company profits through to the tax returns of individual owners.

Since Piketty and Saez data only track income reported on individual tax returns, top incomes were artificially understated in the '70s and artificially overstated when individual tax rates were reduced. Moving income from the corporate tax to the individual tax shows up as brand new income in the individual tax return data of Piketty and Saez, but that it is a statistical illusion.

The endless journalistic misuse of the dubious Piketty-Saez data is often driven by a policy agenda. A recent New York Times editorial about the Piketty-Saez statistics, says, "Part of the reason for the shared prosperity of the late 1990s was ... a big expansion of the earned income tax credit (EITC)." But Piketty and Saez exclude transfer payments, so tripling the EITC would have no effect on their income shares.

The same editorial claims: "Bush ... tax cuts have overwhelmingly benefited the richest. As a result, the tax code does less to narrow the income gap now than it did as recently as 2000." But Piketty and Saez exclude taxes, so even a huge increase in tax rates on salaries, dividends and capital gains would have no direct effect on their data.

What reverting to such a Europhile tax scheme would do, however, is to shift business income back to the corporate tax form again, greatly reduce the realization of capital gains in taxable accounts and invite investors to dump dividend-paying stocks in favor of tax-exempt bonds. As a result, the top 1 percent's share would indeed appear to fall in statistics that naively rely on what affluent people choose to report in various boxes on various tax returns.

Such a reduction in visible top income shares would be little more than a bookkeeping illusion. The only certain effect would be that the rest of us would have to bear a larger share of the tax burden.

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©Creators Syndicate
Creative Math
These Frogs(surprise,surprise) either invented or have mastered the use of the mathematical coefficient known as the "fudge factor". It's the multiplier applied to inconsistent statistics to bring them into mathematical agreement with the desired conclusion. With so many members of the MSM salivating to play the class envy card, it's no surprise that these Bozos have syncphants lined up at their door waiting with baited breath to trumpet the delusions they propose.

Hidden Income
Every time this bugbear of income disparity is discussed, I've wondered whether any economist has ever tried to come up with an approximation of unreported income and applied it to the mix.

There is a huge underground economy among the lower ranks of income that, if it were included into the calculations, would show the lower classes making more money than reported.
Gambling (legal and illegal), illegal drugs, prostitution, smuggling, under-the-table labor, fencing stolen items, sale of used items, all these must constitute a significant part of the economy.

Estimates of the underground economy would show that the lower classes are richer than the official figures, lessening claims that the "poor" are not as poor as they think they are.

More than Reported
Even with thier unreported income, they would either be 1) still in the lowest class of earners or 2) skew the lower middle income class (whatever that is)slightly. The rich get richer, the rest just ride.

Moonbat, please...
You obviously have the mental capacity to read and absorb Reynolds, whose pieces are hardly known for their clarity or narrative arc. I mean, you really gotta give a crap about this stuff to sit through one of his pieces.

And yet your best response is a lame flack against French people and some incoherent spittle about "the media"? Come on... You can do better than that! If you wanna hurl explitives go read Ann Coulter. This is kind of the green room of Townhall, where readers are expected to show a little reflection.

My only problem with Reynolds as a critic is he is eminently good at picking other studies apart - usually on the basis of inconsistent and inappropriate use of data. However, he seldom attempts to correct, or even point us in the direction of where the truth may lie.

Countryman raises an interesting point about illegal income. I mean, running drugs is a multi-billion-dollar industry - someone's gotta be spending all that cash? Let's hope though, for the sake of our society, that including this income doesn't skew the income curve too much back towards the lower classes! Actually, I imagine a lot of this illicit income is in fact earned by those already reporting in the middle of the income scale.

In any case, let's not take too much solace in the fact that the top 1 percentile is earning "only" 10 percent of the nation's income. That's a lot of wealth concentrated in few hands. It can imply several things:

-That dynasties do exist and pass money along from generation to generation;
-That the best 1 % of us are that much smarter and more productive than the rest of us (i.e. education is not equalizing);
-That a lot of people are cheating on their tax returns;
-That the tax system is overly complicated and full of loopholes for wealthy individuals to hide income.

All of these things can be very bad for America.

G_Gaisford Writes
-That dynasties do exist and pass money along from generation to generation;
=====================
The use of foundations and trusts does keep money in families. Those trusts and the foundations they create too, allow many things to be done with money and protect it from taxes. They were created by Congress when they passed the 16th so that "wealth" wouldn't be the "victim" of the 16th, only income. A lot more could be said about that but, it is true that "families" can protect the wealth from generation to generation.

You said:
-That the best 1 % of us are that much smarter and more productive than the rest of us (i.e. education is not equalizing);
==========================
That is true in a different way than you may mean but, I may be wrong. For many of the really wealthy people,their key to success wasn't so much being smarter as more disciplined, more focused on one area they were good at, and good at networking.

For example, Carnegie was delivering telegraph messages to the wealthy and he was so good that they paid attention to him and gave him a key job when one arose, that led him dow the path he used to become wealthy. Also, he was focused (though on different things in a progression) on one thing and made a small fortune on that and then took that and made a fortune on another emerging trend he saw, and then still later on steel. He was also willing to invest everything he had and risk bankruptcy because he "believed" in what he was investing in.

I have been fortunate to know several wealthy people when I was installing alarm systems and talked to them and discipline and sacrifice in their early life led most of them to wealth. Some even went broke and had to start over, but, their determination led them on after failure.

That was another thing. Most had failed early on and learned from those failures where they risked everything, but were willing to risk everything again, when they believed in something. Another thing was "networking." They would take a lower paying job if it meant getting "in" with a company or person who could advance them. They were willing to be "servants" before they became "masters." They waited on the wealthy to learn and get influential acquaintances they would use later to borrow from or join with in a venture.

These are tactics that are well known in the "successful circles" but not taught much in schools.

G_Gaisford also said:
-That a lot of people are cheating on their tax returns;
===============================
Yes and at all levels of income. However, the wealthy don't have to cheat because in the 67,000 pages of tax code are many ways to legally protect income. As you saw in the article, just moving the money from corporate income to personal income is one way. IRA's, foreign investments, tax free securities, trusts, foundations, etc. are all ways.

Take a wealthy person who wants to take a trip to China. If he has a business, trust, or foundation that has any investment in China, he can have the company or trust or foundation that he is an executor in, pay his way to "check on the investment." He doesn't need income so he keeps taxable income lower and still gets to do what we would spend our own income on.

Look at the "Celebrity cruises." We pay to go on them and the Celebrities write the cruise off as a business trip but still get to visit all the ports too. There was a man once that either told me or I read that said all people need a business even if they work for wages. The business, would be used, however, to protect some of what they earn.

I don't remember all the details of how you did it but, it made great sense. One example was to deduct a portion of the "house payment" with a home office (some of that later got restricted by the IRS). You did have to find some way to have a break even or profit but, like many do now, a EBAY home business of just a few hours a week is used by many.

And you said:
-That the tax system is overly complicated and full of loopholes for wealthy individuals to hide income.
==================
Covered most of this very true statement but, foreign countries are all seeking the wealthy and business to come to their nations and create jobs. Thus, many have gone to very simple tax systems with lower rates and even flat taxes. They are working too. They are attracting investment money and businesses like crazy and many from our shores. The old Easter Block nations had done all kinds of tax reform and are doing well in most cases.

Finally you ended up with:
All of these things can be very bad for America.
=================
I would amend this to say "has been very bad" for America. This has been going on for 70 years with peaks and valleys. But, since the 1950's, manufacturing as a percent of GDP has declined from 30.4% to 14-15% and the decline happened every decade as more and more nations began to compete with us. They compete with us in many ways but, keeping wealth and profit after taxes has been one of the leading reform areas of ex-socialist nations that has really boosted their rising economies.

A millionaire a day is leaving France due to their tax policies. We will see that here if we don't change our tax code. For those who say "good riddance," I would say, don't forget the jobs they take with them when they leave because most of the invest in or own businesses and move them too.

Because I love America, my first instinct was to bristle at you, G_Gaisford, for being so bold and criticize our nation's wealthy. But, it isn't the wealthy that are the problem even those who manipulate the system and politicians. It is us who elect people who can be manipulated and then don't throw them out. It us wh support politicians who don't reform the tax code, entitlements and don't return the power to the states where "we the people" can better control government.


Easter Block nations?
Duh! What happened to the "n." Hmmm? Must not of typed it.

"Eastern Block nations."

I SO do not care
... what anyone else's income is.

Numbers, shmumbers. If your basic posture is that you are the Income Police, and what someone else makes must be subject to your approval, no numbers will ever satisfy you. Waste of time.

As for "illegal income," well, income from illegal activities is one thing. They may or may not be "malum in se," but they are at least prohibited on bases other than that you might make money from them.

But we create illegality from thin air when the government cares what our incomes are, and thinks itself obligated to ferret out every last penny of it so that it will be properly taxed.

No, I don't have any unreported income myself. But neither should any of us have to worry about that. The whole concept of basing taxes on income is flawed -- very, very malum in se.

Redistribution
Injustice must be found in order for there to be something to fix. Get people to believe there is unfair distribution of income then get them to believe it can be fixed to their benefit. The same people telling us this used to sell snake oil. Now they are in congress.

Bogus "gaps"
When we talk about "distribution" of income, we risk using the Left's language and buying into their bogus presumptions.

You could talk of "distribution" of income in a statistics sense, where you're simply looking at how many people make x amount of money, then draw a graph over all possible values of x. Unfortunately, to most people I suspect that use of the word "distribution" conveys the idea that somebody is "distributing" income, and unfairly gives huge gobs to somebody else while giving them little. (I suspect that most folks who buy into such an idea don't have high incomes.)

If income is being "distributed," who is distributing it? Somebody huge and powerful, right? God? Well, many would realize we can't make God give us more, so they go to the next most powerful thing they can think of. Of course! the Government! All we have to do is support the candidates who promise to take what was unfairly "distributed" to those nasty old greedy rich people who make WAAAY more than we do (like our landlord, or the CEO of the big-box retailer where we work) and "redistribute" some of it to us. It's Marxist class warfare theory as understood by the stupid and lazy.

All the emphasis is on "getting," regardless of how. Earning and deserving are not taken into account. We are "entitled" simply by taking up space and using oxygen (and voting for leftist redistributionists!)Earning and deserving are not taken into account at all. The masses are led to believe wealth and income 'just happen' and the fact that some get more than others is due to lack of a redistributing government to make it right.

I for one dispute the whole premise behind concepts such as "income gap" or "gap between the rich and poor." If they mean some earn a lot while others earn little, well, such is life, deal with it. If they mean that there are many whose income is $x, quite a few whose income is $x times 100, but rather few whose income is $x times 8 or $x times 15, well, we can blame our government policies, including especially taxation, for making it hard to earn in that middle range.

If you want to produce an apocalyptic economic crash that makes the (largely artificial) Great Depression of the 1930's look like a blip, finish severing the vital relationship between earning, through useful enterprise, and getting. Outlaw high incomes. Do away with the occupations and responsibilities associated with high incomes. Eliminate landlords and mortgage bankers, then try to find housing. Eliminate CEO's and COO's and brilliant entepreneurs, and then go find a job, or basic goods and services. Eliminate highly paid physicians and pharmacists and drug manufacturers and so forth.

Wreck the 'private sector' and then figure out where the government gets tax revenue to support Big Sugar Daddy Pork Barrel Welfare State. An all-out nuclear war might suddenly seem like an idea with merit, by comparison.

The Gray Market
May be as large as 15% of GNP. It is the unreported income of individuals and businesses because of the payment of cash wages and the use of barter.

It appears as well that it "satisfices" many members of the lower class, because it enables the person or family to keep getting welfare money and subsidized housing plus Medicaid health benefits while being paid in cash for part time or full time work.

Postulating the above, it can be seen that the American dream of interclass mobility is dimmed by the realization that it would add a new level of expenses to their lives.

I have been amazed, for instance, that the Black communities are not up in arms over illegal aliens taking over what should have been the lowest rungs on an upward economic path. I wuld have thought that members of the lower class and their leaders would have screamed their bloody hearts out. But we have only silence.

This is a very bad sign, for it means that we are in the process of creating what the post WWII veterans programs hoped to stamp out -- a permanent underclass.

The movement through the classes from welfare to wealth is what is essential for the continuation of the republic. The alternative is the creation of a statist society.
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