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Thursday, January 25, 2007
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
Dismal, Dreary Democrats
by Alan Reynolds
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Since President Bush's State of the Union Address quickly garnered a generous share of criticism, it seems more useful to take a look at the economic comments offered in rebuttal by Virginia's new Democratic senator, Jim Webb. The Democrats are in charge, and they picked Webb to explain their party's Jacksonian vision thing.

He began by repackaging John Edwards' Two Americas: "When one looks at the health of our economy, it's almost as if we are living in two different countries. Some say that things have never been better. The stock market is at an all-time high, and so are corporate profits. But these benefits are not being fairly shared."

The benefits from stock market gains (and the losses from stock market downturns) go to people who invest their own money in corporate stock, often through retirement plans. What is unfair about that? When many homeowners banked huge tax-free capital gains in recent years by selling their homes, did politicians suggest those gains ought to be fairly shared?

It is equally senseless to speak of corporate profits "not being fairly shared." Profits are a residual -- whatever is left over from the money collected from customers after subtracting the costs of production. Companies can use profits to pay dividends or expand the business.

Grants of stock options, a fourth of which go to corporate executives and three-fourths to other employees according to a Fed study, have some impact on how stock market gains are shared among those who own stock. But those gains do not come out of corporate budgets or profits and do not affect the amount of revenue available to pay wages and benefits.

"When I graduated from college," says the senator, "the average corporate CEO made 20 times what the average worker did; today, it's nearly 400 times." The latest Economist says, "If you look back 20 years, the total pay of the typical top American manager has increased from roughly 40 times the average ... to 110 times the average now." Pick a number. Nobody tells you where they come from because the less you know, the more likely you'll be fooled.

Webb's estimates were surely from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), which claims the average CEO earned 262 times as much as the average worker in 2005. He might as well call that 110 or "nearly 400" because it's mostly guesswork. There are no statistics on what an "average" CEO makes, because most companies are too small to be counted in the flawed surveys of newspapers and magazines.

There are also no good statistics on what the average worker makes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics explicitly warns that the figure the EPI uses is "not the earnings average of 'typical' job or jobs held by 'typical' workers." It is constructed by taking a weekly sum and dividing it by about 33 hours a week, because part-timers are included. The EPI then massages that "hourly" average into an annual salary by multiplying it times 2080, as if everyone worked 40 hours a week. The resulting figure greatly understates typical incomes of full-time employees and excludes nearly 40 percent of all jobs.

Webb added, "Wages and salaries for our workers are at all-time lows as a percentage of national wealth, even though the productivity of American workers is the highest in the world." He meant national income not wealth, but it's a mystery what he meant by comparing how income is sliced to relative international levels of productivity.

Labor compensation averaged 65 percent of national income since 2001, but in the third quarter of last year it was 63.9 percent. In 1997, it was also 63.9 percent. When Webb graduated in the glory days of 1968, worker compensation was 63.7 percent of national income, up from 61.1 percent in 1965. Labor's share was often highest in the deepest recessions, such as 67.2 percent in 1982, because profits were so depressed. Populists who gripe about rising profits should look at what happens when profits fall.

Real, inflation-adjusted compensation per hour fell every year from 1993 through 1995 but has risen by at least 1 percent a year ever since -- even during the nasty energy shock of the past few years. Falling profits would not make the recent pay gains look any better, but falling oil prices will.

Real compensation adjusts for inflation, including costs of medical care and education, but Webb hopes to count those twice. "Medical costs have skyrocketed," he says. But most people pay only a small fraction of their medical bills because 85 percent have health insurance that is largely financed by taxes or tax deductions and because deductibles and co-payments are usually small. The poor and near-poor face no medical costs because of Medicaid.

"College tuition rates are off the charts," he says, confusing sticker prices with actual expenses. Statistics on "tuition per full-time equivalent" measure what colleges receive, not what students pay, including all tuition paid by third parties, such as Pell grants. What students pay is commonly cut in half by institutional aid (discounting), and further reduced by government and private scholarships and aid.

Webb went on: "Our manufacturing base is being dismantled and sent overseas. Good American jobs are being sent along with them. In short, the middle class of this country, our historic backbone and our best hope for a strong society in the future, is losing its place at the table. Our workers know this, through painful experience. Our white-collar professionals are beginning to understand it, as their jobs start disappearing, also."

Manufacturing dismantled? "Over the 12 months ending in December, total industrial production increased 3 percent," reports the Federal Reserve, "to a level that was 112.4 percent of its 2002 average." U.S. production of cars and trucks rose 3.5 percent in 2004, 5.9 percent in 2005 and at a 7.3 percent rate in the first three quarters of 2006. Overseas auto plants were sent here, not the other way around.

U.S. jobs are disappearing? Employment was 145.9 million in December, up from 142.8 million a year before. If only bad jobs are increasing, why are average and per capita U.S. incomes rising? Why are so many U.S. shopping malls, restaurants and highways so infuriatingly crowded?

I sometimes wish that people who don't know what they're talking about would simply refrain from talking. Personally, I'd rather watch "Desperate Housewives" than despairing politicians.

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When will the idiots shut up?
Dialogue is only useful if factual and independant.

I do not trust a single statement from any politician out there.

The system has long been broken, and we are all going to suffer for it. Perhaps for a generation or more.

If you torture the data long enough...
...it will confess to anything.

(As demonstrated by Webb.)




Sen. Webb
Webb is just another empty suit pandering to the socialists and their desire for class warfare. He's a good example of the "Peter Principal" - he has reached his level of incompetence.

Webb
Income, profits, employment, stock market, are all at or near all time highs. The housing market is great, manufacturing is up. Interest rates are still relatively low. Unemployment is very low, taxes are at a low point.

And a "New Direction" from this is what?

To me it means more trying to redistribute the wealth through taxation, a la Teddy Kennedy, Hillary, Harry Reid, etc. In other words, MORE SOCIALISM. No government program has ever, and will never, cure poverty. Only aggressive capitalism can do that, and then only if people want to work.

The Old Coot

Old-Sargent
The Buddists have a proverb:

Give a man a fish and he will eat well today. Teach him how to fish, and he'll eat well forever.

The only problem with this, now, is that so many have been given a fish by the socialists that nobody wants to learn to fish anymore. Much less, wants to work.

The Old Coot

What would we expect from the Dems?
Question: What do you call a Democrat who isn't lying?

Answer: Silent.

The fact of the matter is that Democrats NEED to dupe the ignorant into thinking the world is about to end so those ignorant people don't object to Democrats swooping in and snatching away everything they had, all in the name of "saving the day".

RE: Kimberly
You're EXACTLY the type of ignorant person I was talking about in my previous post. Thank you for so colorfully illustrating this to the reading audience.

Baiting a field
basic economics as applied to some of the liberal dems (almost all Dems). It draws the moonbats out of the woodwork like a cow flop draws flies.

Kimberly, your village is missing you.

partial post above
I love it when one of the TH columnists comes out with an essay on basic economics as applied to some of the liberal dems (almost all Dems). It draws the moonbats out of the woodwork like a cow flop draws flies.

Kimberly, your village is missing you.

Kimberly
I You should go back and read Old Coots' post. The main theme here is, as should be, personal responsibility. The more You give the more will be taken. New Orleans for example, just because the President isn't down there holding hands singing Kumbaya with everyone and handing out $100 dollar bills does not mean he has just left the area to rot. Se, Gov't has these people called representatives, the do the work of the Gov't and report back on the progress. The problem with NO is that not enough people want to move bakc and rebuild their city, they want to get their aid and live where they were sent to and not do a darn thing for it.
Life is hard, Life is not fair, suck it up and grab your boot straps and meet it head on. And if you hit it hard enough you will come out on top. How else do you think a 27 year old male can get make nearly 45k a year with no more than a high school education?

Kimberly
Great post. Have had your skull checked for excessive bone ddensity? You may want to check on that.

BTW, I'm STILL waiting for you to read that article on my blog "Economically Speaking" and weigh-in with a comment. I'll have my evil CEO bro-in-law answer you PERSONALLY! Make you feel all warm and fuzzy.

Also, San Fran Nan's Liberal values are arising in Sodom of the West. Check my blog for the gouge.

Jim Webb
is, as old sarge posted, going for the socialist vote.

The democrats continue their attack on corporations, couching it in terms of class envy. Webb claims that the CEO's are paid too much. Does Webb also claim that basketball players are paid too much? No.

Apparently, in Webb's warped little universe of socialism, it's o.k. to be rich unless you're a corporate executive. Then you should be shot.

Jim Webb is typical of the neo-socialists controlling the US Congress. He's anti-business and, therefor, anti-American.

Maybe that's what the people of Virginia want.

Donaldd
DEARBORN, Mich. - Ford Motor Co. lost $5.8 billion in the fourth quarter amid slumping sales and huge restructuring costs, pushing the automaker's deficit for the year to $12.7 billion, the largest in its 103-year history.

The Unions are sure doing a great job on the auto industry. They've destroyed the US Steel industry, the Airlines (nearly), and have the Big Three on the ropes.

Gotta love socialism.

GunnyG
Don't expect anything from Kimberly or Donaldd. All it will do is raise your blood pressure. Although we all know what they are we don't know who they are. Being just names on a thread gives them a feeling of security they would never have in a face to face conversation. They lack the courage and depth of thought to defend their idiotic spews with anything other than more spews. The thought of entering the arena of intelligent debate is more than they can stand unles you are talking about the contestants on American Idol or the latest episode of Grey's Anatomy.

If they want to feel that intelectual debate is calling names let them. Eventually they will have to enter the real world (not the MTV series) and find out how unprepared they really are.

Democrat SOTU diatribe
The speech was a typical democrat divide and conquer speech. It had plenty of “us” against “them”. “Them” were defined loosely as big corporations, their executives and the rich. No plan to fix any problem, just an insinuation that they would make all things equal not better.

Get real
The basic point of this post is to deny Webb's basic claim that there is more economic disparity in America (for whatever reason and for better or worse) than 20 years ago. There is no denying this.

Other long term trends include a loss of manufacturing jobs that support a large part of the middle class. There's no denying that either. Ok, no economic trend is absolutely monotone (without temporary reversals): the data are noisy and the economy fluctuates.

Some (a common Republican tactic is not naming the opposition) want to make America into a vast "free" ocean where some fish grow to become sharks (evolution?) and others are eaten by sharks. As long as it's "fair", it's OK. That's not Webb's vision, nor is it the vision of most Americans. You might call it "Marxist communist socialist totalitarianism", but, as Marx pointed out (the guy was at least smart, if not always right), those with no food are not free either.

Kimberly writes:
---- Webb brought New Orleans back into the picture where Bush chose to ignore ------

My personal take on New Orleans is if you want to build your city below sea level you rebuild it with your personal money....You do not rebuild in the same swamp, unless you are dumb or a democrat.

liberalgoodman
What in the heck is "economic disparity"?? The term is nothing more than stereotypical red flag rhetoric/propaganda so expertly utilized by Marxist types.

Your "facts" are simply wrong. EVERY income class in the U.S. has been gaining economically and in living standards since the Great Depression, consistently outstripping the rest of the world. No country has greater upward mobility than the U.S., i.e. THE SAME PEOPLE DO NOT REMAIN POOR!!!! The U.S. has the richest (and most obese) "poor" in the world. Poverty by the dictionary definition is what you see in Somalia, not the U.S. (Leave aside another fact that government statistics include in the "poverty" rolls first-time entrants into the workforce and middle/upper class college students being supported by their parents).

The constant harping of the "increasing gap between the rich and poor" is a classic example of abject economic ignorance, and in fact of basic grade school arithmetic. Given the FACT that this free capitalist society is constantly increasing aggregate wealth and given the FACT that there is a floor (ZERO) on poverty but no corresponding ceiling on wealth, it follows mathematically that every economic class above the zero level increases the "gap" between it and zero. Why are these two interrelated concepts of upward mobility for ALL classes and a poverty floor with no corresponding ceiling on wealth so impossible to grasp for your socialist ilk?

Alan Reynolds demonstrates once again in his column that nothing is easier than for lying politicians to manipulate the ignorant. If every American were economically literate, the Democrat Party would go extinct overnight.

To liberalgoodman

There certainly is denying it. That old hackneyed phrase has been discredited so may times it begs the question “Why do the socialists keep repeating it?” See the below analysis:

http://engram-backtalk.blogspot.com/2006/11/our-progressive-tax-code.html

Kraut
I agree.

I just like tossing facts their ways although it's like casting pearls before swine.

Unions are destroying American industry but Donaldd still thinks that thye're protecting the worker.

How?

By making sure that he/she has no job and gets to sit at home...

Today's CBO: Taxes Cut, Revenues Up!
(From Donald Luskin's http://www.poorandstupid.com/chronicle.asp)

We were told by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) the capital gains tax cut would "cost" the Federal Treasury $5.4 billion in fiscal years 2003-2006. Thus, the initial Capital Budget Office (CBO) forecast (January 2004) forecasted capital-gains revenue to be $42 billion in 2003, $46 billion in 2004, $52 billion in 2005, and $57 billion in 2006.

Well in what could now be considered the worst forecast in modern times we find out today capital gains tax collections were actually $51 billion in 2003, $72 billion in 2004, $97 billion in 2005, and $110 billion in 2006. For 2005 and 2006 collections nearly doubled the initial forecast.

Stated differently, the CBO predicted total capital-gain tax revenues of $197 billion from 2003 thru 2006 and actual total capital-gain tax revenues totaled $340, or $133 billion (two-thirds) more than the CBO predicted.

Only democrats could look at this data and now clamor that we need to RAISE tax rates!

Oops!
That's $340 billion!

To The Old Coot
I prefer the saying:

"Give a man a fire and he has fire for today. LIGHT a man on fire and he has fire for the rest of his life." ;-)

Short notes on the U.S. economy

The comment was made regarding the loss of jobs because they are going overseas.

This problem just didn't happen overnight. At one point in our history, unions had their place, particularly in the 1920's and 1930's.

Since then, however, two major things have happened.

Our country is not engaged in the same businesses that we were in the middle of the 20th century. Manufacturing is an evolving industry. The demand for different goods and services require businesses to change in order to meet the demand for new and better products.

Secondly, the unions' demand for greater benefits have gone past the point where it is economically feasible for manufacturing companies to compete internationally.

America is not worse than we were 20 years ago. We are merely different now than we were then.

America is enjoying the highest standard of living of any nation in the world. The amazing thing about all this is that in spite of all the negative rhetoric that some engage in, virtually all people who want to work in this country have the opportunity to do so.

I have never considered for a moment that we are a nation where "survival is for the fittest". That is a common misconception among evolutionists who are obsessed with the belief that if anyone is "poor", the rest of the country is obligated to provide for them.

The problem is that many who are poor have chosen to live that way. Are you saying we are obligated to provide for those who do not wish to make use of their God given talents? There are many among the needy that are truly worthy of aid and assistance and nothing prevents good people from providing that care.

However, it is not problem of government. The problem is that too many people think it is. Expecting the government to provide every care our country needs is exactly what takes the initiative away from what the community itself should be doing. The more the government is involved in anything, the more convoluted our nation becomes. Thus, when your particular pet peeve doesn't get solved, instead of doing something about it yourself, you blame the people you philosophically disagree with.

The problem is not a Democratic or Republican issue. It is a national problem that will not go away no matter who or what party is in power. As daily events unfold that we read and hear about, it is merely a sum total of everything that is going on. We all have the same sources of information available. You can make the choice of who and what you want to follow.

As for me and my household, the events of today will not change the plans we have for tomorrow. We are grateful for all we have and we willing share our excess with others. They are thankful for receiving and we are thankful we are able to give.

All of this was possible without the help of Senator Webb and his rant on TV Tuesday evening. I really can't figure out who he was talking to. Nobody that I know.


Webb's malarkey
Alan Reynolds, like Thomas Sowell, is a national treasure. These guys know what they are talking about when it comes to economics and they debunk the demogogues' laughable numbers and conclusions in very precise, clear english. When politicians begin talking about economics, about which almost all of them know absolutely nothing, they should be required to have their comments, articles and speeches critiqued by one or both of these gentlemen. O)f course the newscasters and pundits would do well to consult with them as wello before they make absolute fools of themselves congratulating the Webbs of the political world for their "brilliant" speeches. It pays to know what you're talking about and with respect to economics one hears nothing but drivel from Webb & Co.

Communist socialist Marxist policies
Those Communist, socialist, Marxist policies you guys complain about (progressive income tax, estate tax, ...) are the reason the rising postwar economy has raised all boats. Take them away and lots of boats would be on the bottom. Most Americans don't want that, even most well off Americans.

New Orleans
New Orleans was first and foremost the responsibility of the mayor and the governor. As I remember they both did not bother asking for help until it was too late. Remeber all the school buses in the parking lot under water. It has been common knowledge in NO that if the pumps ever quit, even without a hurricane NO was in trouble plenty.

Webb
The people of VA made a bad mistake when they chose Webb over Allen, as they are apparently realizing considering Webb's falling job performance numbers even before he's hardly started. For one thing, Webb's just more boorishly crude than Allen. He recently went out of his way to be discourteous to Bush when he politely inquired as to the status of his son.

In addition, he's allowed himself to be used by the liberal democrats in order to discredit any lingering conservative views he may have, which, incidentally, got him elected. Real smart.

As to his intellectual honesty, I suppose his novels taught him that BS still sells.

New Orleans
There has been more lies and propaganda spread about the New Orleans debacle than any other thing in the past 2 years, First the actual problems that occurred during and after the hurricane itself were a lie. The MSM (and including Fox) simply spread unsubstantiated rumor. It turned out after all the stuff was over, the only thing that was true was that the hurricane did in fact hit. I haven’t heard one retraction from any of the news media for the host of lies that were spread. Second, not one of the lying MSM brought up the fact that Ray the crook Nagin was in Houston when he held the first press conference. His city was in a shambles and he was in Houston! Third, the New Orleans Emergency Plan (which had previously be judged to be inadequate) was not implemented. They did not even try to implement it. When people started noticing that they removed the plan from access by the internet. Fourth, FEMA is not a 1st responder and should not have been held accountable for the problems that occurred. Almost all of the problems occurred because the city of New Orleans failed to have an effective plan and failed to implement any plan. It is funny (ironic) that this hurricane visited death and destruction all through Mississippi, completely leveling one town, but there were none of the problems that occurred in New Orleans.

Dismal Democrats
I do hope Alan personally sent this to Jim Webb.
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