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Thursday, January 11, 2007
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
Tax cuts and the rich
by Alan Reynolds
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The New York Times headline -- "Tax Cuts Offer Most for Very Rich" -- said it all. That claim was uncritically repeated by CNN, posted on Brad DeLong's blog and so on. But was it true?

The report by Edmund Andrews was about the latest "Historical Effective Tax Rates" from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The CBO shows that from 2000 (the year before Bush cut tax rates) to 2004, the after-tax income of the very richest 1 percent fell by 7.9 percent. After taking into account the Bush tax cuts, the 8.3 percent drop in after-tax incomes of the top 1 percent was even worse. From 2000 to 2004, average real incomes of the middle three-fifths rose 4.1 percent after-taxes, but only 0.5 percent before taxes. In other words, 88 percent of middle-income gains between 2000 and 2004 were due to those nefarious Bush tax cuts of 2003.

Those who rely on The New York Times (unlike readers of The Washington Times), will never find out what the CBO report reveals unless they go to cbo.gov and read it for themselves. To have any chance of having his story to appear in The New York Times, Andrews had no choice but to dissemble.

He began by saying, "Families earning more than $1 million a year saw their federal tax rates drop more sharply than any group in the country as a result of President Bush's tax cuts, according to a new congressional study." But the top 1 percent of households (not families) are those earning more than $266,800 -- not more than $1 million. The average income for everyone earning more than $266,800 exceeds $1 million, but such a mean average is bloated by a small number of very high incomes, particularly distributed earnings of Subchapter S-corporations.

This is why we use median income to describe typical income in other cases, and should also do so when describing average income of top income groups (which differ from lower groups because income has no upper limit).

Andrews continued, "Though tax cuts for the rich were bigger than those for other groups, the wealthiest families paid a bigger share of total taxes. That is because their incomes have climbed far more rapidly, and the gap between rich and poor has widened in the last several years."

Unless "last several years" excludes 2000, the statement is brazenly false. It makes no sense to start with any year except 2000 because we can't possibly compare incomes and taxes before and after the Bush tax cuts unless we begin with the last year of the Clinton presidency. That is, after all, the tax regime congressional Democrats set up as their ideal when they criticize the Bush tax changes as unduly generous to the top 1 percent.

Measured in constant 2004 dollars, average income of the top 1 percent was $1,413,000 in 2000, but only $1,259,700 in 2004 -- a drop of 7.9 percent. Tax cuts did not help a bit. After-tax income of the top 1 percent fell from $946,300 to $887,800 -- an even larger 8.3 percent decline.

Andrews says, "Economists and tax analysts have long known that the biggest dollar value of Mr. Bush's tax cuts goes to people at the very top income levels." You don't need to be an economist to discern that "the biggest dollar value" of any equiproportionate tax cut must go to those with the "biggest dollar value" of taxes paid. Yet the top 1 percent did not get anything remotely close to a proportionate share of the tax cuts after 2000.

The article says "the wealthiest families paid a bigger share of total taxes," but what is remarkable is that they even paid a larger share than they did in 2000, although their before-tax incomes were 7.2 percent smaller. That explains why the top 1 percent's after-tax income fell even more than their before-tax income. The top 1 percent ended up with 14 percent of after-tax income, down from 15.5 percent in 2000, and that includes one-time capital gains and a seriously exaggerated share of corporate profits.

Andrews added that "two of (the president's) signature measures, tax cuts on investment income and a steady reduction of estate taxes, overwhelmingly benefit the wealthiest households."

That sentence is half irrelevant, half mistaken.

The CBO does not attempt to assign the estate tax by income group. To do that they would have to know who received the money, not who died. Dead people cannot receive more income, before or after taxes, which is just one reason why death is a highly undesirable tax avoidance strategy. If Hugh Jassets dies and leaves $10 million to be split among 10 young grandchildren, those youngsters are likely to be either invisible or poor in terms of income showing up in CBO tax data.

Second, taxes on capital gains and dividends are surprisingly hard on older retirees with low incomes. Those with incomes below $15,000 paid over 7 percent of the federal taxes on dividends in 2002, and those with incomes below $200,000 paid 62 percent of that tax.

Third, lower tax rates on taxable dividends and capital gains generally result in investors paying more taxes on their investment income, not less. Nobody has to hold dividend-paying stock in a taxable account, and nobody has to report capital gains by selling assets from a taxable account. The amount of dividend income reported to the IRS doubled from 2002 to 2004. Upper-income taxpayers are bound to be reporting relatively less income from tax-exempt bonds than they did before 2003. Moving income from nontaxable to taxable investments looks like an increase in top incomes in the CBO estimates, but it isn't.

There has been a lot of chatter lately about raising Social Security taxes only on those with incomes above $100,000 while also cutting that same group's Social Security benefits again (their benefits were deeply slashed in 1993 through an extra tax on benefits). Can anyone really pretend that sounds "fair"?

The CBO calculates the effective tax rate for all federal taxes -- including Social Security and Medicare taxes, income taxes and excise taxes. For the bottom 80 percent as a group, that total federal tax fell from 14.1 percent in 2000 to 11.4 percent in 2004 -- a 19.1 percent tax cut. The tax cut was deepest among the poorest fifth (29.7 percent), largely because of the Bush administration's refundable tax credit for children. For the middle fifth, the total tax rate fell from 16.6 percent to 13.9 percent -- a 16.3 percent cut. As for the top 1 percent, their overall tax rate was merely trimmed from 33 percent to 31.1 percent -- a 5.8 percent cut

A truly courageous (willing to be fired) ombudsman of The New York Times would insist on the following correction to Andrews' upside-down article:

"Households earning more than $266,800 a year saw their federal tax rates drop less sharply than any other group in the country as a result of President Bush's tax cuts, according to a new Congressional Budget Office study."

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I like the data - - -
- - - but I kind of wish it was presented in a more interesting way.

Sorry, Alan, no offense.

Send it to Larry Elder. He'll find a way to present it in such a way that my eyes don't glaze over. (This is why liberals are so ignorant of economics.)

:-(


Minced words
You have to remember that the New York Times defines "The Rich" as anybody who has a job and doesn't receive government aid.

Who's rich?
If you ask a cross section of Americans of all income levels whether they consider themselves wealthy less than one percent will say yes, making the "rich" the perfect political bogeyman, a nonexistant group hated by all. The one piece of data I haven't seen is the length of time the Federal govt could run if it confiscated all income from the top 1%. I doubt that it would be more than a month.

P.S. There are other posters using my name to disseminate liberal BS. They are not me, so to find out ask them what's the difference between a moonbat and a bucket of sh*t. Only I know the true answer.

How do we define wealth?
If I were asked if I am wealthy I would not really know how to answer because what exaclty is wealthy?

After thinking about it I would offer this: You are wealthy if you can continue to live the life style you have by using the income that your accumulated money generates until you die.

Example: Given that we ignore the tax issue and if you had $100,000 earning 6% each year and your life style needed $25,000 each year you would not be wealthy. Based on your interest income you would be only 24% wealthy. If you had $500,000 earning 6% each year and your life style needed $25,000 each year you would be 120% wealthy.

How many people with $400,000 plus savings that have $25,000 per year life style do you know? And as the life style cost goes up the amount of savings must also increase.

This has helped me understand wealthy. Maybe some of you could comment on this and help me some more.

The NYT Does Math!
How many editors at the New York Times did it take to figure out that if you pass an across the board tax cut those who pay the most in taxes will benefit the most from it?

I wonder if there was anything in that story about how well Nancy Pelosi made out on those cuts?

Donalddd
The technology-heavy NASDAQ stock market peaked on March 10, 2000, hitting an intra-day high of 5,132.52 and closing at 5,048.62.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, a price-weighted average (adjusted for splits and dividends) of 30 large companies on the New York Stock Exchange, peaked on January 14, 2000 with an intra-day high of 11,750.28 and a closing price of 11,722.98.

In 2001, the DJIA was largely unchanged overall but had reached a secondary peak of 11,337.92 (11,350.05 intra-day) on May 21.

I think Bubba was the POTUS when they PEAKED and when they started falling as well. Of course, 9-11 may have had SOMETHING to do with it. Too bad Velcro-Fly Clinton did not pay more attention to Global Terrorism.

wolfpat
I wonder if Pinchy defines HIMSELF as rich and how much HE pays in taxes. More likely, he hired John Leftwards to do his taxes for him. You know, the super-rich lawyer who made his millions suing doctors, channeling dead spirits, and hiding his wealth in shell corporations.

Fletch, you kill me.
And Gunny G, there you go confusing the liberals with facts. I almost think they're not interested. If only Spiderman was here! HE could make them listen!

---

Somebody tell the NY Times that the vast right wing conspiracy has managed to limit the benefits of tax cuts to those who pay taxes.

I forgot to add...
And why am I always hearing that tax cuts benefit the rich the most -- if they don't pay the most in taxes in the first place?

What were Congressional Democrats doing all those years?

Steve O
HEY! Who told you about Herr Rove's Lib and Poor People's Taxation Machine? Was it the same people who leaked out that Bush uses Rove's Gas Pump Price Fixer Machine to set the price of gas as he sees fit!?

They're gonna get it at the next VRWC meeting.

to Fletch
Fletch: This is the whole point about the Laffer Curve. The evidence is that tax rates are currently very near the graphical peak of the curve. There is likely very little room to lower income taxes to raise further revenues - perhaps none at all. At the same time, tax increases at this juncture will tend to curtail revenue - particularly upon the rich becasue what matters is the marginal rate. An increase in taxation from 35% to 37%, for example will create a far greater drag on the economy than an increase from 25% to 27%. This is why the Kennedy tax cuts were phenomenally successful at stimulating growth in GDP and revenues, Reagans were somewhat less so and Bush's lesser still.

Phylo: What annoys me about this statement and many of your others is that you seem to believe that the Laffer curve is this very fine and absolute line and that, if you tweak the tax rate here or there there is a perfect corresponding movement on the Laffer curve. Something about this just seemed wrong to me but, not being an economist, I didn't know what it was or how to respond.

But I went to look up the Laffer curve and found a very interesting concept called the neo-Laffer curve which shows that the curve is actually quite a jumbled mess at the top because there are so many variables that can have an effect on tax revenues.

In other words, the neo Laffer curve supports my argument, which you called factually wrong or totally delusional.

The FACT is that there is no way to tell whether or not, under the current circumstances, a minor tax increase will reduce revenues or raise them.

Phylo out.


Well we DO have a test available 4 Phylo
Whether it is Laffer or Neo-Laffer you wish to follow I wish to hear what a "minor tax increase" is and to whom is it directed? But that was not the point I am addressing here.

If it is as Phylo says; a small tax shift would be "undetectable", I take it he means a little more off the top will not hurt the economy. Or at least not enough to be noticed, hence we can hit on the "rich" a little more without consequence. At least that is what I get from his words. In the end he wants more money for government in the form of taxes.

In FACT, as I often see this in caps, there is one sure way to find the optimal tax rates to get the most money from taxes without slowing the economy. Lower the tax rates at the same percentage across the board. And keep lowering them every year. Within the first fiscal year we would know it a tax drop brought in more tax revenue or not.

Every year the taxes go down and the revenue goes up. This has always worked in the past and it certainly is working in the 21st Century as well.

You stop decreasing taxes when the tax revenues level off. You have found the optimal level or percentage. Simple.

However the Liberial Socialists would never go for it because there would be a severe backlash to a tax increase once the "Optimal Level" had been established. This is because even the unwashed masses would KNOW the FACT that excessive taxation is COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE and would not allow the politicans to cut their gravy train by taxing the golden goose until it stopped laying their eggs.

In a way Phylo is admitting he does not know what would happen in a tax change. I'm willing to try my method before his. If I'm correct we both win, the other way around and we all lose.








Laffer
So, Phyllo, you've noticed that simple economic models are unreliable at predicting exact future outcomes...welcome to the dismal science! The Laffer Curve provides an explanation for the counter-intuitve empirical result of lower marginal tax rates leading to increased government revenue, replacing the flawed Keynesian models that were unable to account for this outcome. However, the US economy is far too complicated to be acurately predicted even by complex econometric models, let alone the Laffer Curve. Additionally, there are lags between policy implementation and economic effect that can vary considerably in length. How much of our current strong economic recovery is due to the Laffer effect, how much to other fiscal and monetary policy, how much to the normal business cycle, etc.? I don't know. I do know that the Laffer curve is mathematically and theoretically sound, and has been borne out by real world data.

As to the absurd notion that a small tax increase would not be noticed, Fletch has already explained to you at length the concepts of behavior at the margins, the importance of aggregate results versus anecodotal theory and disparate impact. (BTW, Fletch, you are going a long way toward curing my carpal tunnel...eveytime I go to the keyboard to shoot socialist fish in a barrel, I find that you have already made all of my points!)

There is one point on which I disagree with Fletch: I believe that there is still room for significant tax cuts before the equilibrium point of the Laffer Curve is reached. However, this really doesn't matter. The fact that the Laffer Curve works, and that tax cuts have historically increased government revenue, offers a checkmate argument to socialists Dems, revealing their real agenda of punishing the productive, even at the expense of government revenue. But worrying about the equilibrium point assumes that our societal goal should be the maximization of government revenues. I would argue that taxes should be cut beyond the equilibrium point because the federal government uses the money less efficiently, has no Constitutional authority for 90% of what it does, and because I despise with every fiber of my being the obscene monstrosity of collectivism.
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