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Thursday, January 11, 2007
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
Tax cuts and the rich
by Alan Reynolds
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Andrews added that "two of (the president's) signature measures, tax cuts on investment income and a steady reduction of estate taxes, overwhelmingly benefit the wealthiest households."

That sentence is half irrelevant, half mistaken.

The CBO does not attempt to assign the estate tax by income group. To do that they would have to know who received the money, not who died. Dead people cannot receive more income, before or after taxes, which is just one reason why death is a highly undesirable tax avoidance strategy. If Hugh Jassets dies and leaves $10 million to be split among 10 young grandchildren, those youngsters are likely to be either invisible or poor in terms of income showing up in CBO tax data.

Second, taxes on capital gains and dividends are surprisingly hard on older retirees with low incomes. Those with incomes below $15,000 paid over 7 percent of the federal taxes on dividends in 2002, and those with incomes below $200,000 paid 62 percent of that tax.

Third, lower tax rates on taxable dividends and capital gains generally result in investors paying more taxes on their investment income, not less. Nobody has to hold dividend-paying stock in a taxable account, and nobody has to report capital gains by selling assets from a taxable account. The amount of dividend income reported to the IRS doubled from 2002 to 2004. Upper-income taxpayers are bound to be reporting relatively less income from tax-exempt bonds than they did before 2003. Moving income from nontaxable to taxable investments looks like an increase in top incomes in the CBO estimates, but it isn't.

There has been a lot of chatter lately about raising Social Security taxes only on those with incomes above $100,000 while also cutting that same group's Social Security benefits again (their benefits were deeply slashed in 1993 through an extra tax on benefits). Can anyone really pretend that sounds "fair"?

The CBO calculates the effective tax rate for all federal taxes -- including Social Security and Medicare taxes, income taxes and excise taxes. For the bottom 80 percent as a group, that total federal tax fell from 14.1 percent in 2000 to 11.4 percent in 2004 -- a 19.1 percent tax cut. The tax cut was deepest among the poorest fifth (29.7 percent), largely because of the Bush administration's refundable tax credit for children. For the middle fifth, the total tax rate fell from 16.6 percent to 13.9 percent -- a 16.3 percent cut. As for the top 1 percent, their overall tax rate was merely trimmed from 33 percent to 31.1 percent -- a 5.8 percent cut

A truly courageous (willing to be fired) ombudsman of The New York Times would insist on the following correction to Andrews' upside-down article:

"Households earning more than $266,800 a year saw their federal tax rates drop less sharply than any other group in the country as a result of President Bush's tax cuts, according to a new Congressional Budget Office study."

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©Creators Syndicate
Laffer
So, Phyllo, you've noticed that simple economic models are unreliable at predicting exact future outcomes...welcome to the dismal science! The Laffer Curve provides an explanation for the counter-intuitve empirical result of lower marginal tax rates leading to increased government revenue, replacing the flawed Keynesian models that were unable to account for this outcome. However, the US economy is far too complicated to be acurately predicted even by complex econometric models, let alone the Laffer Curve. Additionally, there are lags between policy implementation and economic effect that can vary considerably in length. How much of our current strong economic recovery is due to the Laffer effect, how much to other fiscal and monetary policy, how much to the normal business cycle, etc.? I don't know. I do know that the Laffer curve is mathematically and theoretically sound, and has been borne out by real world data.

As to the absurd notion that a small tax increase would not be noticed, Fletch has already explained to you at length the concepts of behavior at the margins, the importance of aggregate results versus anecodotal theory and disparate impact. (BTW, Fletch, you are going a long way toward curing my carpal tunnel...eveytime I go to the keyboard to shoot socialist fish in a barrel, I find that you have already made all of my points!)

There is one point on which I disagree with Fletch: I believe that there is still room for significant tax cuts before the equilibrium point of the Laffer Curve is reached. However, this really doesn't matter. The fact that the Laffer Curve works, and that tax cuts have historically increased government revenue, offers a checkmate argument to socialists Dems, revealing their real agenda of punishing the productive, even at the expense of government revenue. But worrying about the equilibrium point assumes that our societal goal should be the maximization of government revenues. I would argue that taxes should be cut beyond the equilibrium point because the federal government uses the money less efficiently, has no Constitutional authority for 90% of what it does, and because I despise with every fiber of my being the obscene monstrosity of collectivism.

Well we DO have a test available 4 Phylo
Whether it is Laffer or Neo-Laffer you wish to follow I wish to hear what a "minor tax increase" is and to whom is it directed? But that was not the point I am addressing here.

If it is as Phylo says; a small tax shift would be "undetectable", I take it he means a little more off the top will not hurt the economy. Or at least not enough to be noticed, hence we can hit on the "rich" a little more without consequence. At least that is what I get from his words. In the end he wants more money for government in the form of taxes.

In FACT, as I often see this in caps, there is one sure way to find the optimal tax rates to get the most money from taxes without slowing the economy. Lower the tax rates at the same percentage across the board. And keep lowering them every year. Within the first fiscal year we would know it a tax drop brought in more tax revenue or not.

Every year the taxes go down and the revenue goes up. This has always worked in the past and it certainly is working in the 21st Century as well.

You stop decreasing taxes when the tax revenues level off. You have found the optimal level or percentage. Simple.

However the Liberial Socialists would never go for it because there would be a severe backlash to a tax increase once the "Optimal Level" had been established. This is because even the unwashed masses would KNOW the FACT that excessive taxation is COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE and would not allow the politicans to cut their gravy train by taxing the golden goose until it stopped laying their eggs.

In a way Phylo is admitting he does not know what would happen in a tax change. I'm willing to try my method before his. If I'm correct we both win, the other way around and we all lose.







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