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Thursday, January 11, 2007
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
Tax cuts and the rich
by Alan Reynolds
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The New York Times headline -- "Tax Cuts Offer Most for Very Rich" -- said it all. That claim was uncritically repeated by CNN, posted on Brad DeLong's blog and so on. But was it true?

The report by Edmund Andrews was about the latest "Historical Effective Tax Rates" from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The CBO shows that from 2000 (the year before Bush cut tax rates) to 2004, the after-tax income of the very richest 1 percent fell by 7.9 percent. After taking into account the Bush tax cuts, the 8.3 percent drop in after-tax incomes of the top 1 percent was even worse. From 2000 to 2004, average real incomes of the middle three-fifths rose 4.1 percent after-taxes, but only 0.5 percent before taxes. In other words, 88 percent of middle-income gains between 2000 and 2004 were due to those nefarious Bush tax cuts of 2003.

Those who rely on The New York Times (unlike readers of The Washington Times), will never find out what the CBO report reveals unless they go to cbo.gov and read it for themselves. To have any chance of having his story to appear in The New York Times, Andrews had no choice but to dissemble.

He began by saying, "Families earning more than $1 million a year saw their federal tax rates drop more sharply than any group in the country as a result of President Bush's tax cuts, according to a new congressional study." But the top 1 percent of households (not families) are those earning more than $266,800 -- not more than $1 million. The average income for everyone earning more than $266,800 exceeds $1 million, but such a mean average is bloated by a small number of very high incomes, particularly distributed earnings of Subchapter S-corporations.

This is why we use median income to describe typical income in other cases, and should also do so when describing average income of top income groups (which differ from lower groups because income has no upper limit).

Andrews continued, "Though tax cuts for the rich were bigger than those for other groups, the wealthiest families paid a bigger share of total taxes. That is because their incomes have climbed far more rapidly, and the gap between rich and poor has widened in the last several years."

Unless "last several years" excludes 2000, the statement is brazenly false. It makes no sense to start with any year except 2000 because we can't possibly compare incomes and taxes before and after the Bush tax cuts unless we begin with the last year of the Clinton presidency. That is, after all, the tax regime congressional Democrats set up as their ideal when they criticize the Bush tax changes as unduly generous to the top 1 percent.

Measured in constant 2004 dollars, average income of the top 1 percent was $1,413,000 in 2000, but only $1,259,700 in 2004 -- a drop of 7.9 percent. Tax cuts did not help a bit. After-tax income of the top 1 percent fell from $946,300 to $887,800 -- an even larger 8.3 percent decline.

Andrews says, "Economists and tax analysts have long known that the biggest dollar value of Mr. Bush's tax cuts goes to people at the very top income levels." You don't need to be an economist to discern that "the biggest dollar value" of any equiproportionate tax cut must go to those with the "biggest dollar value" of taxes paid. Yet the top 1 percent did not get anything remotely close to a proportionate share of the tax cuts after 2000.

The article says "the wealthiest families paid a bigger share of total taxes," but what is remarkable is that they even paid a larger share than they did in 2000, although their before-tax incomes were 7.2 percent smaller. That explains why the top 1 percent's after-tax income fell even more than their before-tax income. The top 1 percent ended up with 14 percent of after-tax income, down from 15.5 percent in 2000, and that includes one-time capital gains and a seriously exaggerated share of corporate profits. Continued...

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Laffer
So, Phyllo, you've noticed that simple economic models are unreliable at predicting exact future outcomes...welcome to the dismal science! The Laffer Curve provides an explanation for the counter-intuitve empirical result of lower marginal tax rates leading to increased government revenue, replacing the flawed Keynesian models that were unable to account for this outcome. However, the US economy is far too complicated to be acurately predicted even by complex econometric models, let alone the Laffer Curve. Additionally, there are lags between policy implementation and economic effect that can vary considerably in length. How much of our current strong economic recovery is due to the Laffer effect, how much to other fiscal and monetary policy, how much to the normal business cycle, etc.? I don't know. I do know that the Laffer curve is mathematically and theoretically sound, and has been borne out by real world data.

As to the absurd notion that a small tax increase would not be noticed, Fletch has already explained to you at length the concepts of behavior at the margins, the importance of aggregate results versus anecodotal theory and disparate impact. (BTW, Fletch, you are going a long way toward curing my carpal tunnel...eveytime I go to the keyboard to shoot socialist fish in a barrel, I find that you have already made all of my points!)

There is one point on which I disagree with Fletch: I believe that there is still room for significant tax cuts before the equilibrium point of the Laffer Curve is reached. However, this really doesn't matter. The fact that the Laffer Curve works, and that tax cuts have historically increased government revenue, offers a checkmate argument to socialists Dems, revealing their real agenda of punishing the productive, even at the expense of government revenue. But worrying about the equilibrium point assumes that our societal goal should be the maximization of government revenues. I would argue that taxes should be cut beyond the equilibrium point because the federal government uses the money less efficiently, has no Constitutional authority for 90% of what it does, and because I despise with every fiber of my being the obscene monstrosity of collectivism.

Well we DO have a test available 4 Phylo
Whether it is Laffer or Neo-Laffer you wish to follow I wish to hear what a "minor tax increase" is and to whom is it directed? But that was not the point I am addressing here.

If it is as Phylo says; a small tax shift would be "undetectable", I take it he means a little more off the top will not hurt the economy. Or at least not enough to be noticed, hence we can hit on the "rich" a little more without consequence. At least that is what I get from his words. In the end he wants more money for government in the form of taxes.

In FACT, as I often see this in caps, there is one sure way to find the optimal tax rates to get the most money from taxes without slowing the economy. Lower the tax rates at the same percentage across the board. And keep lowering them every year. Within the first fiscal year we would know it a tax drop brought in more tax revenue or not.

Every year the taxes go down and the revenue goes up. This has always worked in the past and it certainly is working in the 21st Century as well.

You stop decreasing taxes when the tax revenues level off. You have found the optimal level or percentage. Simple.

However the Liberial Socialists would never go for it because there would be a severe backlash to a tax increase once the "Optimal Level" had been established. This is because even the unwashed masses would KNOW the FACT that excessive taxation is COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE and would not allow the politicans to cut their gravy train by taxing the golden goose until it stopped laying their eggs.

In a way Phylo is admitting he does not know what would happen in a tax change. I'm willing to try my method before his. If I'm correct we both win, the other way around and we all lose.







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