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Thursday, August 31, 2006
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
Statistical politics
by Alan Reynolds
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Leonhardt studied math, so it must have been painful for him to conjure up a Marxian contest between 45.3 percent for wages and 10.3 percent for profits when that obviously leaves 44.4 percent of GDP unaccounted for. The missing 44.4 percent is nearly as big as wages, and nearly four times larger than before-tax profits, so why aren't workers fighting for more of that 44.4 percent? They are, to some extent, since a fraction of that missing 44.4 percent is benefits. The authors admit that "total employee compensation ... was briefly lower than its current level of 56.1 percent in the mid-1990s."

Yet more than a third of GDP is still missing, which is why serious economists never compare labor's income shares to "gross" domestic product. GDP includes big items that are not any American's income -- notably, depreciation for wear and tear on everything from computers to highways.

The sensible practice is to examine labor compensation as a share of national income. Then, it turns out that "labor's share of income has averaged 70.5 percent (of national income) over the past 50 years and has remained within a narrow range of that average," according to the St. Louis Fed.

Ian Dew-Becker and Robert Gordon likewise found that, "contrary to the widespread impression that labor's share has been squeezed, there was no change in labor's share from 1996:Q3 to 2005:Q1. ... Labor's income share ... fluctuated around a mean of 71.2 percent between early 1984 and early 2005."

The article quotes myopic economists at Goldman Sachs saying, "The most important contributor to higher profit margins over the past five years has been a decline in labor's share of national income." Five years ago was 2001. Labor's share of national income is always highest in recessions because profits are lousy (and lousy profits produce recessions).

The contradictory New York Times articles of last May and this August seem to view economic non-facts as malleable political propaganda. The latest piece says: "Political analysts are divided over how much the wage trends will help Democrats this fall in their effort to take control of the House and, in a bigger stretch, the Senate. Some see parallels to watershed political years like 1980, 1992 and 1994, when wage growth fell behind inflation, party alignments shifted and dozens of incumbents were thrown out of office."

Perhaps so. With any luck, dozens of incumbents from both parties will be thrown out. Meanwhile, major newspapers might try being just a bit less partisan with the numbers, or at least less conspicuously uninformed.

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Reynolds is one of the best columnists..
on townhall.com. He is thought-provoking and knowledgeable. Unfortunately, it seems that those who just spew stuff out to stir up trouble are the ones who are the most popular. For example, the shrill Ann Coulter has about 100 comments for her column, while the intelligent Reynolds has less than 10. This is a sign of the times - the times of shrill, thoughtless partisanship and ideological blindness.

Economic ignorance or malice
We should sue the teacher's union for malpractice based on how poorly Americans understand basic economics.

All other things being equal an increase in productivity must reduce the percentage of labor costs to gross output. But as the cost to productivity increases, so does wealth. Increasing wealth should be the goal.

Unfortunately, economic numbers are readily abused and the MSM. unions and politicians do so on a regular basis. Therefore we must ask. Do they do so out of ignorance or malice?
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