Even though it has been barely two years since the last
investing bubble burst, bringing companies like
American International Group (NYSE: AIG),
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), and
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) to their knees,
there's yet another bubble forming. And I believe it will
burst in 2010. Â
Just ahead, I'll tell you how to completely avoid it --
and present an alternate investment strategy you can adopt
instead of following the crowd into this bubble.
But first, a look at this bubble and how it formed.
All that glitters
Congress is spending billions of dollars in
stimulus funds to jump-start the economy. It's funded almost
entirely with debt. As the national debt level rises, the
dollar becomes weaker because currency investors shy away
from high-debt countries. This causes higher inflation, which
everyone agrees is coming.
But the consensus right now is that the best way to
counteract inflation is by investing in gold.
And the consensus is dead wrong!
The problem with gold is that it's a luxury
commodity. It has no coupon rate, no growth prospects, and
can rise in price only as much as demand for it grows.
It's also difficult to value. Some believe the price of
gold per ounce should match the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Others believe it must reflect the price of a top-tier man's
suit. Still others believe it must account for global supply
and demand.
In spite of this inherent confusion, many prominent
investors -- John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, Jim
Rogers of Quantum Fund fame, and even hedge fund manager
David Einhorn, to name a few -- believe gold can do well
right now. What's more shocking: The recent Value Investors
Congress was full of lectures on how to profit in precious
metals.
Even the best can be fooled
The average investor is blindly following
these noteworthy men. That's why more than $12 billion of new
money has been invested in the SPDR Gold Trust
this year alone. I'm the first to admit that
falling prey to other investors' moves is an easy
pitfall-- but it can also set you up for disaster.
So what exactly are all these investors -- and their
followers -- overlooking? These three facts:
1. When gold demand rises, supply does, too, which
brings gold prices back down.
Fortunemagazine reports that gold miners invested
more than $40 billion into new projects since 2001, and they
"are now bearing fruit." Bullion dealer Kitco "predicts that
these new mining projects will add 450 tons annually -- or 5%
-- "to the gold supply through 2014, enough to move prices
lower." The demand also brings out sellers of scrap gold,
which adds even more to the supply.
All this while demand for gold has dropped 20% in the past
year.
2. Gold is not just dollar-denominated.
Unlike oil, gold is bought and sold in local
currencies throughout the world.
The Wall Street Journalreports that "gold remains
well below last winter's peaks when priced in pounds, euros,
yen, or Swiss francs." This indicates that it is solely
Americans speculating on gold's rise.
3. Gold is historically a poor investment.
Perhaps the most damning fact is that, from
1833 through 2005, gold and inflation had nearly perfect
correlation, according to
Forbes. This means that, after taxes, you would have
actually lost money in gold.
Warren Buffett once quipped, "It gets dug out of the
ground ... Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it
again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no
utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their
head."
In fact, the only way to make gold rise is to get other
investors to buy into the idea -- like a giant Ponzi scheme.
And as we know from watching the unraveling of Bernie
Madoff's empire, this can't last forever.
Which is why buying gold today is a horrible decision --
and why investors would be better off looking elsewhere.
The absolutely best place to be looking
The best way to invest for inflation is to
invest in high-yield dividend companies. Unlike gold, which
has no coupon rate and no growth potential, you should be
sending your investing dollars to companies that pay a
dividend (which often rises) and also have both stable growth
potential (which also often rises) and strong assets (in
inflationary periods, assets are more valuable since they
cost more to replace).
Here are four solid candidates that fit that bill, all of
which have a long history of dividends -- through periods of
inflation and deflation alike:
Company
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
5-Year Compounded Annual Growth
Rate
of Revenue
Liabilities-to-Asset Ratio
Dividends Paid Since
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)
$77.1 billion Continued... |