"Now is an absolutely
ridiculoustime to buy small-cap stocks.
"You'd be a dope to snap up shares of companies like
Stone Energy (NYSE: SGY),
American Axle & Manufacturing
Holdings (NYSE: AXL),
Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX), and
Sunrise Senior Living (NYSE: SRZ) -- all of
which are up more than 500% since March's market
low."Â
That's what you might be hearing, now that the small-cap
Russell 2000 Index is outpacing the S&P 500 by 10
percentage points. Even
The Wall Street Journalpredicts that the small-cap
rally is set to come to a screeching halt.Â
But don't be duped ...
Just because many small-cap stocks have
experienced a huge increase in the past few months doesn't
mean you should avoid all of them.
First, no one accurately called the market's bottom in
March, so it's dubious whether anyone has the ability to call
a top just a few months later.
Second, the Russell 2000's sharp rise has largely been
driven by the
speculative bidding-up of penny stocks(stocks with share
prices below $5). Many companies whose share prices exceeded
$5 in March have not shared in the astronomically high
returns -- including companies whose fundamentals have
actually
improvedyear to date.
This trend isn't unique to small caps. In fact, S&P
500 stocks whose prices fell below $5 during this bear market
-- including
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC),
E*TRADE Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), and
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) -- have
been some of the highest gainers in that index, with each up
more than 100% since the bottom.
But this still raises the question: Why have penny stocks
risen quicker than non-penny stocks?
Pain, baby, pain
Behavioral psychologists refer to the "pain of paying"
-- the mental barrier we face when parting with our cash. The
higher the cost, the higher the barrier.
For investors focusing on share price (instead of, say,
underlying company quality), it's less painful to toss an
extra dime per share into purchasing a penny stock -- even if
that dime represents twice what the stock was trading for the
day before -- than it is to toss in an extra $5 per share for
a stock that was trading for more than $100 a share the day
before.
Rational? Certainly not.
However, this speculative irrationality presents the savvy
small-cap investor with a great opportunity.
How to cash in on small-cap movement
There are two ways you can profit from the
rush to penny stocks:
1. Join the rush, and wager your hard-earned
money by guessing which penny stock might rise next.
2. Invest in small-cap companies whose
fundamentals have been improving, but which are still
undervalued by the market.
As much as we'd all love to have a stock shoot up nearly
4,500% in just a few months -- as penny-stock micro-cap
Diedrich Coffee recently did -- at the end of
the day, the first tactic is nothing but a risky
crapshoot.
So though your inclination might be to go for the gusto to
make up for losses, the second option is really the only way
to set yourself up with a portfolio that will grow your
wealth at above-average rates over long periods of time. Continued... |