You gotta hand it to U.S. stocks -- they sure put in a
strong showing.
Stocks like
Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS),
Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU),
Denbury Resources (NYSE: DNR), and
Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) have
delivered 10-year annualized returns of more than 25% a year
-- even while factoring in the recent market tumble.
But after posting the past century's highest gains, it's
unlikely their streaks will continue. Or, as John Maynard
Keynes poetically said, "trees don't grow to the sky." Even
in the midst -- or coming out -- of this bear market, U.S.
stocks are starting to look like the trees, while stocks in
China and Brazil appear to be mere saplings.
Higher growth ... and higher returns
If there's a bright side to this volatile market, it's
that it unraveled the misconception that every country's
economy is coupled with the United States'.
It's simply not so.
Sure, countries like Mexico -- and, with it, companies
like
Cemex , which are inherently tied to the
American economy -- will suffer and prosper alongside us. Not
to mention debt-mired Eastern Europe, which will struggle to
emerge from this crisis.
But you simply can't write off the emerging economies in
countries like Brazil and China.
Stock market powerhouses
While U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to
fall in 2009, the World Bank forecasts that China will grow
by an astonishing 7.2%. Looking out to 2010 -- when only the
most optimistic U.S. forecasters predict noteworthy domestic
growth -- China is slated to grow another 7.7%
Not only is this
good news for China, but it's also good news for Brazil.
The Economistreported that China "recently overtook
the United States as Brazil's biggest export market." So as
China sees rising demand for its goods, Brazil will see
rising demand for the commodities it lays claim to.
If you want direct exposure to foreign economies, there
are two basic ways to play this trend:
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index
ETF (NYSE: EEM), which holds more than 320 stocks,
is a good choice.
Or, you could cherry-pick best-of-breed foreign stocks,
researched by analysts who have met with the executives,
scoured the tricky financials, and have their own
hard-earned money behind many of their picks.
You certainly won't go wrong with the first option -- it's
a great way to profit from the overall emergence of these
economies.
But the second option is the way to go if you're a
do-it-yourselfer interested in finding stocks with the
potential for much higher gains. And guys like Tim Hanson and
Nate Parmelee, co-advisors of
Motley Fool Global Gains
, are two of the brightest minds seeking out the world's
next stock success story.
And the best part -- they recently returned from a trip
around rural China doing just that.
Some have labeled them insane to venture outside of
China's top cities like Beijing and Shanghai, but they
believe that "the farther we get outside tier 1 cities ...
the more likely we are to discover our next great investment
idea." Continued... |