It sure is starting to look like this bear market is over,
isn't it?
We can't be sure just yet, though investors in
CEL-SCI (Amex: CVM),
YRC Worldwide (Nasdaq: YRCW),
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies
Worldwide (Nasdaq: QTWW),
ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG) are likely
convinced. Each of those stocks is up more than 50% ... over
the past month alone.
Some analysts, like PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian, believe that
the rally is over, and that "valuations are ahead of
fundamentals."
It's safe to say that negativity still abounds
The late Sir John Templeton called scenarios
like the one we've been experiencing
"points of maximum pessimism." He also taught that times of
maximum pessimism are the best time to buy -- and he
practiced what he preached.
When the Second World War began, and stocks started to
fall, he borrowed $10,000 and invested it in 104 companies
whose shares were trading for less than $1 -- including 34
that were in bankruptcy. Four years later, he sold his
positions for $40,000, booking a 300% gain on stocks the
market thought were doomed.
With his example in mind, I believe the pessimism still
lurking around -- in the midst of unprecedented gains --
continues to signal a buying opportunity.
Stocks to profit from pessimism
We should be buying stocks that, like
Templeton's initial bet on pessimism, could become double- or
triple-baggers in the four or so years coming out of this
bear market.
We know
the top stocks since the last recession beganwere mostly
small caps -- albeit with a few mid-cap rock stars like
Apple mixed in. Among other things, small
companies can more quickly and efficiently cut costs and
streamline operations than their larger peers, which maintain
employees and resources scattered throughout the country and
the world.
But which companies have outperformed since the
endof that bear market? I ran a screen to see what
kinds of companies were double-, triple-, or
even-better-baggers as the recession receded. And sure
enough, the best-performing companies over the following four
years were all small caps:
Company
4-Year Return
from Oct. 9, 2002
Oct. 9, 2002 Market Capitalization
(in millions)
AmericaTower
5,137%
$139
YFP
2,857%
$434
Research In Motion
2,422%
$705
Bancolombia
2,067%
$203
WESCO International
2,054%
$142
Corning
1,890%
$1,173
Crown Castle International
1,830%
$373
AES
1,767%
$597
Coldwater Creek
1,670%
$131
McDermott International
Continued... |