As any graduate of Alcoholics Anonymous knows, the first
step to setting out on the proper path is admitting your
weakness.
In that spirit, I'm writing about my biggest mistake
during this bear market. Here. Publicly. For the whole world
to see.
After all, if legendary investor Peter Lynch of Fidelity
Magellan fame could
publicly admitto holding
AIG and
Fannie Mae at the end of 2008, what's an
analyst like me got to lose?
I hope two things come of my story:
1. Someone, somewhere out there
learns something from my mistakes. Feel free to
consider me a sacrificial teacher.
2. Having studied psychological commitment
and consistency in Robert Cialdini's classic work
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, I hope
that my public commitment to avoid repeating these mistakes
prevents me from falling victim to them again.
Mea culpa
My greatest investing failure of the past year has been
my investment in
Allied Irish Banks . To date, I'm down 66%
(not long ago, I waved goodbye to more than 90% of my initial
investment, but the stock has recently inched upward).
True, it's not quite as big a loss as those suffered by
investors in
YRC Worldwide (Nasdaq: YRCW),
Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq: ENER),
Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE),
Delta Petroleum (Nasdaq: DPTR), and
Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX) over the past
12 months, but what consolation is a few percentage points'
difference when you've lost 66%?
And yet, painful though that loss is, seeing how avoidable
this was in hindsight hurts even more.
Perhaps the
onlycomforting thought is that in Warren Buffett's
most recent
Berkshire Hathaway annual report, he writes
that he also suffered a significant loss by investing in
Irish banks. Some have speculated that AIB was among them. So
at least I was fooled alongside a
much better investor.
Following the crowd
I first went wrong in falling prey to social proof. I
put too much weight on the research, opinions, and actions of
others, without thinking through my investment decision for
myself, and deciding whether it made sense in
myportfolio.
Prior to my purchase of Allied Irish Banks, it had been
recommended in our
Global Gainsnewsletter service and purchased by the
team heading up our real-money
Million Dollar Portfolioreal-money service. Advisors
in both services wrote that the stock was trading with low
historical and relative multiples, a very attractive dividend
yield, and a significantly undervalued price.
While they made compelling arguments, I failed to
carefully evaluate whether I agreed with their assessments.
And I became even more hooked as these fellow analysts also
began purchasing Allied Irish Banks for their personal
portfolios.
As a result, I also began to give in to confirmation bias
-- where I sought out opinions that further confirmed my buy
decision, rather than seeking a contrarian opinion that might
indicate danger ahead.
Seth Jayson, co-advisor of our
Motley Fool Hidden Gems
newsletter service, recently shared with me that
confirmation bias is one of the most common predispositions
investors face. He explained that truly great investors
develop an ability to honestly look at both sides of an
investment thesis.
Anchoring in loose sand
As if those errors weren't enough, I also became
anchored to the price at which each service recommended the
stock. I fixated on those price points; in my mind, anything
lower than their entry prices became a clear bargain.
So, when Allied Irish Banks fell another 50% from the most
recently recommended price, the stock became twice as
attractive to me, as did the doubled dividend.
These mistakes fed off each other, collectively convincing
me to overlook my normal investment process. I took
shortcuts. I failed to perform as much research as I
typically do. I fell in love with the stock, viewing it as
mostly upside, without truly understanding the risks and
pressure points. And I didn't even consider the possibility
of a suspended dividend (which later came true). Continued... |