Unfunded, not yet known...
I like Minnesota's Governor Tim Pawlenty, but let me be clear about this up front here.
He's presently a distant 4th place at BEST amongst GOP hopefuls for 2012.
As I've written repeatedly over the last few months, the nomination, at present is Gov. Mike Huckabee's to lose. I know the memes that are crawling out of the mouth of Romney supporters, but it's true and you know it.
Pawlenty is plenty conservative enough for the party, and as a popular twice elected Governor of his state he just now joins the field of 3 other Governors who were also popular.
Pawlenty is a nice guy, he's well spoken, he's got a great temperment and he is pretty well known in Minnesota.
But that's about where it ends.
Look at the field so far: Palin & Romney are definitely running. Huckabee is 95% likely to run. Pawlenty doesn't offer anything new that these three haven't already offered.
And keep this in mind for 2012. The winning message will include a component that is anti-tax. (Huckabee is on record to break up the IRS, and convert the nation to a fair tax. And don't listen to Hugh on this one. Though the fair tax is outrageously different than the present system, it would be a morally & Constitutionally appropriate tax, and it WILL be an attractive alternative to the continued escalation of taxes from the Obama administration.)
Romney will be hobbled by the failure of the Massachusetts health care system--a system he authored--where $50 abortions can be accessed on the state's dime, but many needed procedures are not always accessible. That coupled with the fact that he could not finish higher than third in the last election cycle--even after spending gobs of his own cash--bode very poorly for him in attempting another run. Though I am convinced he will run again...
Palin has enormous popularity, enormous brand, and will be able to raise a fer amount of cash by the time the important election cycle comes along. It will be important for her to out perform the others in the debates, to manage her team, message, and brand wisely, and her ability to continue to have that "I am every mom" sort of practicality in order for her to even have a chance.
Huckabee was severely hurt by the Romney forces in the last primary. There were a dozen PACs or so run by Romney staffers that continually fed misinformation to National Review. That dishonest, non-factual, and manipulated information was then repeated by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter.
He will not be so easily thus manipulated this go around. Coulter and Limbaugh will owe him apologies over the way they portrayed him in 2008. But he will rally the faith-based, the genuine conservative, the disaffected that John McCain seemed to have no use for.
He has the top rated show of the entire weekend on ANY news channel. He invites liberals on to argue with him about policy, and he will have miles of video tape with his STATED positions on things.
Might Romney resurge the Mormon/Christian debate? Yes, possibly, but not in a way that help himself. Might Palin sell more books than the Governor between now then. Of course.
But when the dust settles the image of Huckabee will be his ability take on anyone in the establishment, to win through smiles, hugs, and jokes, and that he will not allow others to brand him this go around.
For all of the above reasons Tim Pawlenty can not win.
But it does not mean he should not run. MANY people RUN for President but few of them think they could actually WIN. The truth is merely running for President brings many side benefits that candidates find very helpful.
Running in 2012 is a good prep lap for 2016 or 2020l. And it wouldn't be the most terrible thing in the world if Pawlenty ran with an eye for the future.
But this go 'round, if Huck wants it, he will be the nominee.
I said it first, I've said it longest, and the rationale still makes the most sense.
Humility and Lower Taxes vs. Harvard Elitism and Out-Of-Control Tax and Spend.
That's just way too easy of a choice!