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"Decisive Lead Amongst Conservatives!"

According to the newest Rasmussen numbers Mitt Romney now leads the GOP race for the nomination - NATIONALLY, and is up 15 points amongst "conservatives." McCain leads amongst moderates - but most of the primary races here on out are closed races which will diminish moderate/independent turnout for the GOP race.

Mitt's strategy, though it hit a sizable speed bumps in Iowa AND New Hampshire, is on the verge of complete fruition. The singularly important task ahead of him being - to win Florida.

If McCain loses Florida, though he will be around to make more noise, he will be all but finished. It Mitt wins, he must still compete heavily on Tsunami Tuesday, but he will be in position to raise additional money to complete his war chest.

Huckabee's loss in South Carolina appears to have been his ultimate undoing, which in all reality could be blamed easily enough on Thompson given the similarity in the exit poll responses from Thompson and Huckabee's supporters. Had Thompson not been in the race, Huckabee would have easily defeated McCain by a wide margin (perhaps 10%).

Now that McCain, who traditionally only wins "open" primaries, is faced with convincing the conservative base of the GOP primary voters that he isn't the wild, undisciplined, arrogant, half-crazed, tempest in a teapot he has been for the last eight years. But the track record is long.

And when you associate your name with more legislation (McCain/Feingold, McCain/Kennedy, McCain/Lieberman) with your opponent's co-signature's than from your own party's there's bound to be backlash. Even in this election cycle it appears that while McCain says ONE THING about border security, the staffing of his campaign advisers tells a VERY different story.

A good boxing of the ears in Florida and Senator Cranky can finally put the "running for president" demons to rest, and just focus on enjoying the remainder of his time in the Senate and with his wife and family...

"What's your most treasured keepsake?"

Fred: "Trophy wife"

AP: "What's your lazy day activity?"

Fred: "Campaigning."

AP: Who's your favorite 20th-century president?

Fred: Martin Sheen (who played Josiah Bartlett in "The West Wing")

Thompson firmly believes he can play well with Evangelicals, sapping votes from their current favorite, Huckabee. He has been on the attack — trying to show holes in Huckabee's record both in press interviews and in a mailing that went out last week that accuses Huckabee of being weak on immigration.

"We've talked about immigration, we've talked about his record on taxes, we've talked about him wanting to lift the embargo against Castro and things like that and some of the stuff he switches his position on and some of the stuff he stays with," Thompson said.

He also had some pointed criticism of Romney. His campaign has labeled Romney a flip-flopper on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage. When asked if the negativity could turn off Iowa voters, Thompson replied: "If you're supposed to go to the presidential elections without talking about the issues and where people's positions on issues that would be news to me."

"On all the issues, you're never going to do anything about them unless you have a leader who can break through the partisan gridlock," said Lieberman, who was Al Gore's running mate seven years ago. "The status quo in Washington is not working."

Lieberman said McCain's approach to Iraq and his credentials on national security are the main reasons he is supporting a Republican for president.

"Political party is important, but it's not more important than what's good for the country and it's not more important than friendship," Lieberman said.

Things large and small in the campaign have been moving McCain's way. The war in Iraq has turned sharply toward victory now that President Bush has adopted the strategy McCain had been recommending for several years. This is McCain's best issue and now a distinct plus for his campaign. And the immigration issue, a poisonous one for McCain, has become less intense since his immigrant-friendly approach lost in the Senate last summer.

Then there's the rise of Mike Huckabee, the ex-Arkansas governor. If he defeats Mitt Romney in Iowa next month--and polls show Huckabee ahead--that will disrupt Romney's early-state strategy and leave him vulnerable in the New Hampshire primary on January 8. To capture the nomination, McCain must win in New Hampshire. McCain, by the way, likes Huckabee and can't stand Romney.

Just as Romney has run into trouble, McCain's other rivals have as well. The campaign of Rudy Giuliani, the ex-New York City mayor, has stalled amid a burst of unfavorable media stories. Former senator Fred Thompson has failed to stir significant support among conservatives, his target group. Still, like Huckabee, Thompson is running hard against Romney in Iowa.

DES MOINES, IA -- The last GOP debate until IA: The seemingly endless debate parade of 2007 began -- on the Republican side -- at the Reagan Library in California, underneath Reagan's own Air Force One. It took us to Columbia, SC (where the GOP candidates sparred for the first time), to Manchester, NH (where audio/lightning troubles allowed Rudy to joke, after receiving a question on abortion and Catholic faith, that perhaps God was trying to punish him), and then to here in Des Moines (where Brownback -- remember him? -- targeted Romney on abortion). It continued on to the economic debate in Dearborn, MI (where Thompson made his first appearance), to Orlando, FL, then to St. Petersburg, FL for the YouTube debate, and then the Spanish-language one on Univision last Sunday. Now it's come to this: the final Republican debate before the Iowa caucuses; the Democrats have theirs here tomorrow. And with all of the cable news networks carrying this debate live, what would have been an under-watched afternoon affair in Iowa is perhaps turning into the most important debate of the cycle.

"He's been a long opponent of the embargo against (Cuban President Fidel) Castro. He thinks we should lift the embargo against Castro, and I disagree with that," said Thompson, whose campaign put out a statement the day before attacking Huckabee on the issue.

...before Thompson's event, he told reporters in Miami that he has come to understand Cuban-Americans' perspective on the embargo and said as president he would veto any legislation attempting to lift it.

Thompson said that was a political move.

Not a bad idea to hitch himself to the Huckabee press-wagon in Miami, but couldn't he jump on a plane to Iowa right after? This morning, he was on the Glenn Beck Show, on which he didn't mention Iowa or being there, and I've heard nary a word about him since.

"We need a leader who's going to touch our souls. Who's going to make us feel differently about one another. Who's going to remind us that we are one another’s keepers. That we are only as strong as the weakest among us," she said, echoing biblical passages.

Winfrey also touched on Christian themes that had not been highlighted in Iowa.

"It's amazing grace that brought me here," she began, adding that she was "stepping out of my pew" - television – to engage in politics.

It isn't enough to tell the truth, Winfrey said. "We need politicians who know how to be the truth."

Beginning Monday, December 17, Thompson will launch a bus tour that will take him throughout the state...

"Iowa is critical to our campaign, and it may in fact be everything to our campaign," says one Thompson official. "If we don't do what we need to do in Iowa, it will be tough to compete effectively down the road."

Which begs the question: Why doesn't he just start living there today instead of waiting a week?

Thompson has said publicly that he needs to finish in the top three in Iowa. Campaign officials say that a strong third place finish--presumably behind new frontrunner Mike Huckabee and former frontrunner Mitt Romney--would likely give them enough momentum to survive New Hampshire and compete in South Carolina and beyond. A second place finish would be a victory. "Just when the interest is there the greatest, is when we'll be here the most."

"These are the kinds of things I've been talking about all of my life. Now, if the American people have other priorities, if they want someone who smiles a lot more than I do, or someone who is a better quipster than I am, who has no experience in these areas, that's for the American people to decide."

"I'm often asked why taxes are so high and government is so big. It's because the faith we have in local churches has become so small. If we'd been doing what we should have -- giving a dime from every dollar to help the widows, the orphans and the poor -- we now wouldn't be giving nearly 50 cents of every dollar to a government that's doing ... what we should have been doing all along."

I expect to be back blogging, broadcasting, and hopefully speaking, signing, and meeting you! Here's a little of the fun we had last time:

"He has not clearly opposed the war from the start," said Republican National Committee spokesman Danny Diaz Tuesday. "Like his wife, the former president has been critical of the Iraq war in recent months, but at one time he gave President Bush the benefit of the doubt."

Mr. President -- your wife is going to be in Iowa tomorrow. She is supposed to talk about health care. You don't want to step on her message by claiming that you opposed the Iraq War from the beginning! We're in the era of instantaneous fact checks... within 10 minutes of your comments, they're everywhere, and if you want to walk them back, it's not like calling Ron Fournier to walk back an AP story!

This is the second time. Three weeks ago, the last time he was on the trail, he made a comment. It seemed to be an offhand comment, you know, that the health care was his fault in 1993, that the failure of health care reform was his fault, not her fault and she shouldn't get the blame. And a lot of folks said, wait, wait, isn't he rewriting history?

Yesterday, he goes out and in his first speech says he always opposed this iraq war. And the Clinton folks feel there's plenty of support to show he was not in favor of an invasion and what was interesting, our field reporter out there said that later at a later stop yesterday, he dropped the always opposed and instead started saying opposes this iraq war a little bit.

So, trying to change things a little, realizing he may have started a firestorm. And it could have been a slip of the tongue or said something not in the way he meant to say it. It doesn't matter.

This is the double-edged sword of Bill Clinton. Everybody listens to what he says. That's what makes him a good surrogate for Hillary Clinton, but sometimes a distraction for her is that everybody listens to what he says, including reporters.

"That'll require people like me, who got five tax cuts that I should not have gotten, in my income group, when we had soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq. Even though I approved of Afghanistan and opposed Iraq from the beginning, I still resent that I was not asked or given the opportunity to support those soldiers."

Roaring out of the Thanksgiving break last weekend, both Romney and Giuliani traded shots for two days running on a variety of issues - spending, tax cuts, crime, healthcare, and appointments - as they stumped in New Hampshire, where Giuliani is redoubling his efforts to catch Romney.

Giuliani and Romney have used increasingly harsh language against each other. But in the past five days, Romney and Thompson have also zinged Huckabee for advocating driver's licenses and tuition breaks for illegal immigrants while governor of Arkansas; Huckabee hammered Romney for shifting positions on abortion and gay rights; McCain whacked both Giuliani and Huckabee for their lack of military and foreign policy experience; and Giuliani's campaign issued a release criticizing Thompson's record on taxes while serving as a senator from Tennessee.