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It’s always gratifying to see mainstream media attempt to catch up with the truth—however belatedly.
For more than fifteen years, I’ve been writing and speaking about the myth of America’s "soaring divorce rate", and the pernicious lie that “50% of all marriages end in divorce.”
My bestselling book HOLLYWOOD VS. AMERICA (1992) includes a whole subchapter entitled, “The Myth of the 50% Divorce Rate.”
This week, even the Associated Press began to acknowledge the truth. “Divorce Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since 1970,” said the headline of a major article on May 10.
This piece accurately reported the following: “America’s divorce rate began climbing in the late 1960’s and skyrocketed during the 70’s and early ‘80’s, as virtually every state adopted no-fault divorce laws. The rate peaked at 5.3 divorces per 1,000 people in 1981. But since then it’s dropped by one-third, to 3.6. That’s the lowest rate since 1970.”
Of course these numbers reflect only those people who get divorced in a given year, and say nothing about the number of marriages that ultimately end up shattered. Nor can you extrapolate from these figures reliably into the future. The fact that 3.6 out of a thousand people get divorced in a single year doesn’t mean that 36 people out of a thousand will have gotten divorced after ten years.
The only way to measure the over-all divorce rate – the percentage of all first marriages that end in divorce --is to consider the readily available numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau. According to the most recent figures (from 2001, after the last completed national census), some 166,932,000 Americans have ever been married – or 76% of all those 15 and older.
Meanwhile, 48,412,000 have ever been divorced.
This means that of all those who have ever been married, a startling 71% are either still married to the person they originally wed, or else they remained married until the spouse died.
This figure applies only to first marriages, of course: the number for those who have “ever been divorced” (22.2% of all American adults) includes many people who have been divorced more than once.
Nevertheless, think of the important, valuable, reassuring message to prospective married couples that could be provided by an honest summary of the marital realities:
If this constitutes the first marriage for both of you, there’s a better than 70% chance that you will remain married until one of you dies.
Despite decades of media distortions, the truth remains precious and liberating.
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