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Saturday, December 29, 2007

The Battle for 3rd In Iowa

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 6:34 PM

In the movie, Talladega Nights, Ricky Bobby's daddy famously said, "If you ain't first, you're last." That maxim certainly doesn't hold true this year in politics (or in football, for that matter).

In fact, almost as exciting as the battle for first-place in Iowa is the battle for third. Here's why:

We can almost presume that Romney and Huckabee will finish in one of the top two spots. As such, the third-place spot -- the wild card -- becomes very, very important.

Should John McCain, a candidate who famously opposes Ethanol subsidies -- and didn't even campaign in Iowa in 2000 -- come in second, it would give him a boost heading into New Hampshire. This would be especially important if Huckabee were to win Iowa. McCain would benefit greatly by coming in third in Iowa.

Of course, Fred Thompson is also campaigning hard in Iowa, and has essentially moved there (and his FredHeads are joining him). A third-place finish keeps Fred in the game. To put it in context, Fred Thompson needs a third-place finish on Thursday almost as much as the Redskins need a win tomorrow. His entire season is on the line. He needs this "wild card berth."

Lastly, don't count out Rudy Giuliani. Operatives from several competing campaigns tell me he is campaigning much harder in Iowa than he is letting on. Rudy can't afford to finish fifth or sixth in Iowa. He won't win Iowa, but to remain relevant until February 5, he can't afford to be a joke, either ...

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Con4fred writes:	Tuesday, January, 01, 2008 8:30 PM
cornpone harry
You don't know alot about the election process do you?
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cornpone harry writes:	Tuesday, January, 01, 2008 8:10 PM
third in Iowa is worthless
There is NO benefit in placing third-for anyone. Fred needs second OR else cut his losses and move into another state and regroup.
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BG writes:	Sunday, December, 30, 2007 3:52 AM
polls
The recent polls in IA still may not be very precise. However, Fred appears to be tied with McCain in the RCP averages. Neither, Fred nor McCain have much of a GOTV. I suspect that Rudy does have some GOTV. If Rudy can not run 3rd it would be to his advantage to have Fred run 3rd. McCain is in direct competition with Rudy for votes. A McCain boom hurts Rudy far more than Romney in the long run. Rudy has to have McCain tube before SC/FL or he is in real trouble as the "moderate vote" will be split between Rudy and McCain. At that point a fractured primary does not help Rudy. Romney, Huck and Fred are fighting it out for the conservative vote. Romney as the consensus candidate also fights McCain for votes in some states. However for the most part McCain and Rudy fight for the "moderate vote". If both of them stay in they both lose. One of them has to drop out before the other is viable as Conservatives get behind one or possibly two candidates.
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Con4fred writes:	Saturday, December, 29, 2007 7:25 PM
Nobody knows
I can't wait to see Fred come in second and mess up everything the pollsters and the pundits have been saying. See you at the caucus!
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