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The change in the wind that favors the Republicans has five possible explanations:
a.) the pollsters consistently underweighted GOP turnout and are scrambling to avoid being Zogbied.
b.) GOP faithful and center-right independents are unhappy with President Bush and the Congress for a number of reasons (tin-eared non-responsiveness on the border, spend, and one I'll discuss at length on Wednesday) and told pollsters, bit have now relented as they realize that no matter what the problem is, the answer can't be more Democrats.
c.) John Kerry reminded Americans of the left's contempt for the military specifically as well as its fecklessness on matters of national security generally, and voters want to stay alive. "Any vote for any Democrat is a vote against victory and a vote for vulnerability" is a concise summary of a broad truth.
d.) The Rove-Mehlman GOTV machine is rolling out, powered by polite volunteers who understand the need to persuade not merely berate. You can help here on Monday and Tuesday --from the comfort of your own home.
e.) A lot of each, but especially "c" and "d."
Whatever the reason, the optimism among Republicans about their improving prospects is as real as the GOP's momentum. Both houses of Congress could go either way, but Democrats are beginning to understand what it meant to a Browns fan to hear, "Elway in the shotgun as the clock begins to tick down..."
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